If they had had any guts, Daly's pollsters would have made the results "uno dos tres, quatro cinco cinco seis!"
AND SO IT BEGINS....
“Some polling results” that were “conducted by the Daly campaign” of “those likely to participate in the June 2012 primary election” that Republican Area Blog OC Political apparently “got a hold of” show “convincingly” (well, Pedroza bought it) that, as it stands, the next California State Assembly representative from the Santa Ana area is going to be either a white unknown Republican or … a white quasi-Republican.
Given the reassuringly accurate title of “2010 AD 69 Primary Preference,” the Daly campaign sets forth the news thusly. (Note: the three numbers shown after “overall” for Daly, Martinez, and Perez are for a “simulated race” that presumably involves only the three of them. (Sorry, Paco! Polls are expensive; Daly can’t waste time on you!)
Tom Daly (D) — 25% overall; 30% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans, 30% of independents
Michele Martinez (D) — 13% overall; 21% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans, 17% of independents
Julio Perez (D) — 4% overall; 7% of Democrats, 0% of Republicans, 3% of independents
Francisco Barrigan (D) — 5% overall
Robert Hammond (R) — 25% overall
Undecided — 28% overall
OC Political noted that a Democrat will likely win the seat, given the 2-1 Democratic registration edge, and that only Daly’s support is notably transpartisan.
I haven’t even gotten to the good part yet. Get this “news report”:
“When voters hear more about the background, experience, qualifications and accomplishments of Daly, they react very positively. Daly’s initial positive sentiment of 35% moves to 80% after voters hear a short paragraph providing these basic facts.
As the campaign commences and voters begin to focus on the candidates for State Assembly, this survey shows that Daly, with his experience as the Orange County Clerk-Recorder and as former Mayor of Anaheim, is in a strong position to win this contest.”
A reminder about the those polled “hearing more about the background, experience, qualifications and accomplishments of Daly”: this poll was conducted by the Daly campaign. They got to write the script about the “basic facts.” Yeah, I’ll bet that those “basic facts” moved him from 35% to 80%! They probably left out the “basic fact” about Perez that he’s going into the race armed with more that a leaky can of Indian casino money and the Pulido machine, like Martinez, and a platform that, like Daly’s, doesn’t mostly involve just pretending to be really sorry that Democratic goals can’t be met. (“Really. It’s a shame. Too bad the rest of the Assembly Democrats who are voting against the Republicans are insane.”)
Add the fact that voters have little information about the candidates and that they probably described Perez as something between “union thug” and “no apparent qualification” rather than as “reformist policy scholar who knows how to kick ass,” this isn’t a surprising result. (I hope that Hammond is happy with the 25%, because he won’t be there for long, not with the Republicans apparently in the bag for their man Tom Daly.)
Now, I know why OC Political would be serving as Daly’s unquestioning PR unit here: they know that Hammond is not going to win and that their best shot at getting most of what they want is to elect Daly — whose campaign at this point seems to be located almost entirely in the offices of anti-Labor groups planning on independent expenditures.
And I know why lonely OC Politics auteur Art Pedroza immediately did his part and trumpeted for all Latinos besides Martinez to get out of the race now now now for the good of la raza. Once Julio — the actual threat to the political establishment — is out of the race, then (so long as Paco doesn’t catch fire like Rick Santorum) Republicans can be happy with all the remaining choices. Daly is their mole within the Dems; Martinez will, if somehow elected, go along to get along.
But why, you may ask, am I highlighting this poll? It’s because I want people to pay attention. This poll of “likely voters” (and my bet is that they were disproportionately white, and that the people collecting the data were too — and probably not venturing into some of the areas where Perez is rounding up support) with almost no real info about the candidates may be hooey, but it’s is a glimpse of what’s coming down the pike. The anti-reformers are desperate not to let the charismatic and brilliant reformer, Perez, into the runoff — so they gave information that would put him at the bottom.
Simple: I want people to see what we’re up against — not great candidates, but great willingness to twist and distort.
That means that people in AD-69 (and those of us who care about who’s in OC’s most likely Democratic Assembly seat) need to organize now to fend them off, because a Perez win will clearly be the kind of freshening breeze through the Party that Central County needs but that its elite cannot bear. The mailers from outside groups, with Daly kept happily in the dark, are going to be expensive, plentiful, lying, mean and anonymous. People can let them get away with it, or not — this is a test of Democratic mettle. Perez is, it’s clear from the endorsement process, the Democratic candidate in the race. The question is whether we can earn his representing our county.
Meanwhile, I have a proposition for anyone who can figure out a way to allow legal wagering on the results. Perez’s support here is a little under 1/6 of Daly’s and Hammond’s, a little under 1/3 of Martinez’s, and a little less than equal to Barragan’s. So I’ll tell you what — I’ll give you an advantage. I’ll put down $1 on Perez against each of the candidates, and you put down $6 on Daly, $6 on Hammond, $3 on Martinez, and $1 on Paco. Come the end of the primary, we’ll multiply my $1 times each of the other candidates’ percentage of the primary vote (times 100, so 25% would equal $25), and I’ll give it to you. Then we’ll multiply your $6, $6, $3, and $1 times Julio’s percentage of the vote, and you give it to me.
I just did the math; based on the numbers in this poll. I’d owe you $25+$25+$13+$5, or $68, and you’d owe me $24+$24+$12+$4, or $64. You’d win $4 — almost 6%! Have you ever seen an easier, more surefire way to make money?
Wait, wait — don’t walk away! Don’t you have faith in the poll? C’mon, Emami and Pedroza, at least you two should be willing to take me up on it, given how seriously you’re taking the results! Come on, have some faith! I’m giving you good odds here!
(Unless you don’t believe the numbers either, I guess….)
Let’s go to the video to take us out.
I wonder if the script included the facts that Daly wasted $48,000 (over 50K would have to approved by the Board of Supervisors) hiring a Sports Hall of Fame Consultant who accomplished nothing, and who happened to funnel back $1000 to his 2010 Supe campaign; or that he spent $2,100,000 buying a useless building at 433 Civic Center Drive that has sat empty for over four years.
P.S. This has the aroma of Chief Repuglican John Lewis coming off it. Daly is the darling if ‘pugs like Lewis, Jerbal Cunningham, Lucy Dunn and Bill “Give it Away” Campbell.
Dude! – I am the confirmation sponsor (and family frfiend) for the Offspring member who sings the lyrics “all the girlies say I’m pretty fly for a white guy.” – in green shirt in this live performance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIz6BlkDXSU
So? Given your expertise then, is Daly actually fly?
It’s a small, small world!
Daly is the least lame of all of the candidates – repub or dem. But I will vote for Hammond.
High praise indeed! I hope that you get to vote for Hammond twice, once against a Latino in the runoff.
No need for any canidate to drop out, let the voters decide.
Hey, tell it to Pravdaroza.
What’s funniest is seeing Julio at 4%, behind even Paco. Daly/Hammond, Martinez, Barragan, Perez – that’s nothing but the order Republicans prefer. Heck of a poll, Brownie!
If by “Republicans” you mean the OC GOP hierarchy, I assure you they are working for Daly and don’t rive a rats’ ass about this Hammond guy; if Daly wins Lewis will then start lobbying the Supes to appoint Roly-poly Bill Campbell to replace him.
Trust me. I know.
What Tony knows but doesn’t say is that Shawn Nelson’s chief of staff, Orange Councilman Denis Bilodeau, wants the Board to appoint him Clerk-Recorder if Daly goes to Sacto.
Now that .. is interesting. Bilodeau, eh? As useless a career politician as Daly – RINO and DINO. I do notice Tony has a blind and/or silent spot regarding the shenanigans of his longtime friend Shawn. That’s where we can step in.
but lewis will have to compete with moorlach who will be lobbying the sups to appoint him to the position since his dream of a third term seems to be vanishing
I have been told that if one observes the north county branch Clerk-Recorder locations much of the time you will seee paid staff sitting round with nothing to do. If true, sure sounds like a lot of waste in order to have an office to display Daly’s photo.
so if Michelle comes in third, will she say Julio stoled the election from her?
ROTFLMAO
Let me just, if I can speak for the entire OJ team, say that we do hope she gets her bicycle back.
http://ocpoliticsblog.com/out-of-district-white-liberals-losing-it-over-dalys-69th-a-d-poll/
Ha ha, okay I’ll check it out.
“Losing it” I don’t know. Daly’s Republican poll is absurd on its face, which you should be able to see, and it’s a good sign of the tricks to come from Daly and the Republicans. We find some humor in your falling for it and using it for your own ends.
If “losing it” refers to uncontrollable laughter, he’s pretty much spot on.
My guess — and it’s just a guess — is that the choice given was something like:
“Would you prefer Republican Robert Hammond or one of the Democrats, City Clerk-Auditor Tom Daly, City Councilwoman Michele Martinez, accountant Francisco Barragan, and labor stooge Julio Perez?”
Then apply a as tough a likely voter screen as necessary until the Latino respondent level drops to safe levels — and if you can get Julio to drop below Paco, that’s a bonus.
Tony the B’s comment that Republicans aren’t bothering with Hammond and are just plugging Daly is the most important thing I’ve read about this race on the blogs. I wonder if Daly will re-register as No Party Preference by Friday so that he doesn’t have to run as a Democrat, but as one “above the fray.” Otherwise Republicans will vote for Hammond by accident. I yearn to see the written explanations given out to them about why they should vote for the nominal Dem!
Art for the love of God stop embarrassing our family and stop this blogging. We are hanging on to the house by a thread. Please stop.
Orange Juice leadership wishes to alert our concerned readers that this was not really Art’s wife commenting, but some meanie “sock puppet” pretending to be her. You all knew that, right?
Oops, I didn’t read it closely enough before approving it. (I didn’t notice Art’s name at the beginning; I thought it was just random silliness.) I have no problem with it being taken down.
It’s okay, it’s not that bad. But I did take down one pretending to be his daughter.
Oh, I think the Binder poll is probably accurate within its parameters, which include a screen of voters “likely to vote in the primary”. Likely primary voters are heavily white, Republican, and vote by mail.
And it’s one of those “if the election were held today” polls, which is really more about name recognition.
But these numbers can change dramatically as campaigns progress and as candidates have a chance to introduce themselves to voters in a number of ways.
Exactly. I don’t claim that the poll is falsified; I claim that it is purposely designed to be misleading, in ways that any serious pollster knows how to do. That’s one reason I’d so love to see the ethnic composition of the obtained sample. (I do suspect that there was some “pushing” involved in candidate designations and introductions.)
That’s all the more reason that taking this poll as a reason that Latinos need to consolidate behind Martinez is absurd. (And those numbers will change dramatically. Oh, for an Orange County version of InTrade, where I could buy shares in the Perez campaign at $0.04 to return $1….)
Why would anyone lend creedance to a poll that does not include parameters of that poll?
Why would anyone release a poll to which no one would lend credence?
(The real answer is: it happens all of the time. This one is just funnier than most, due to Pedroza’s “OMG! OMG!” reaction to it.)
Kick up your heels, dance a little jig and celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with Julio O’Perez!
http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=58awelhab&v=001fHRgY6J0lNMRBvQz1zoMI5z8h3qSBLNoPvj5x5CdGEUCSyJ0umDbh_nPoiNFZjCIeLPsq9Zcmb8u4eNJBYNeEt0wZTYEE3HZ_okI3DlSHSP32Zxwxskjqn17_LLh80EJ
Thanks so much for the blog.Really thank you!