Some weird stuff happened last night as the votes in the primary were counted. Weird — and often fascinating. In this Part 1, let’s review what seem like the top three highlights, jog to Riverside, and then finish up with the bottom of the ballot.
The moderator of a candidate forum stands between Wendy Gabriella, at right, and Anna Bryson, at left, her expected opponent in the November runoff elec– … uhhhhhh — OH NO WHAT’S THAT IN THE MAILBOX IS IT ANOTHER PIECE ON BRYSON FROM CHARLES MUNGER? OHHH PLEASE PLEASE NO NO I CAN’T TAKE IT ANYMORE!
1. OC Board of Education election finally changes the majority … or DOES it?
The extremists were calling for “one more seat” — and that’s exactly what they got. Lincoln Club matron of honor Linda Lindholm outspent Liz Dorn Parker by an ungodly amount and was able to knock her out by about 12 points. So is all lost? NO, because the other sane one on the ballot, David Boyd beat his challenger Tom Pollitt by 15 points.
I yet haven’t discussed this with anyone else, but the correct play is obvious: recall crazy homeschooler Robert Hammond from the relatively moderate District 1. If Long Pham would like his old seat back in November, I’ll bet that he’d have lots of support! And, of course, Dems could be really competitive in this district as well. Republicans can either tell Hammond that they don’t want to defend him in the recall and run a better candidate — or they can stake their bet on this especially lousy horse. The non-extremists have to coalesce around someone now. (Art Pedroza, stay out of it this time!)
2. Jim Moreno can’t slip past Allan Mansoor to take on Michelle Steel — or CAN he?
The results of the 2nd Supervisorial District race is clear. Michelle Steel didn’t break 50%, though she almost doubled the total of her nearest competitor, Allan Mansoor. (Will Dems support Mansoor over Steele? It would require unlearning a lot of what they know of him….) Democrat Jim Moreno is a little more than 1000 votes back. As the only Democrat, Moreno is likely to get a whole lot more provisional ballots than any of the three Republicans. Could there be enough to allow him to close the gap? Probably not — but let’s find out how many there are before we declare this one over. By the way: I think that without Joe Carchio in the race, Steel wins outright.
We can declare Rudy Gaona‘s race for the 4th district seat over, as Shawn Nelson crushed him. In the 5th District, Frank Ury joins Joe Williams on the bench. Lisa Bartlett led for much of the night, but Robert Ming came back at the end to take the race. Where do the Ury and Williams votes go? Does anyone want support from Democrats? This race looks likely to be wild and expensive.
3. Charles Munger’s meddling mailings will never be welcome in Orange County again
I did not expect to end the night feeling sorry for Anna Bryson, but finishing last in the field, behind even Paul Glaab, who had withdrawn from the race — is simply humiliating. Did Bill Brough somehow plan this in advance? If so, it was brilliant; he had me totally fooled. (Was Munger in on the charade, if so? No — nobody goes through the sort of humiliation he just did, by repeating the Leslie Daigle fiasco all over again but louder. Brough had seemed to go belly up in the waning weeks of the election, but he somehow emerged as a strong second to Wendy Gabriella. And unlike Bryson, Brough has not earned the hatred of Jesse Petrilla supporters — who are already going to be in a really bad mood due to Tim Donnelly being ambushed by another emissary of the party’s Romney wing. But here’s the thing: will Petrilla and his flock fall into line — or would they rather see two years of Gabriella than twelve years of Brough? Will Brough have to run way to the right to pick them up? If so, that leaves space at the ideological center of the district for Gabriella, who can run a bit more to the right without losing any of her current support.
4. A quick detour to San Berdoo
I cannot tell you how deep an exhalation of relief accompanies San Bernardino County’s Pete Aguilar emerging from another idiotically four-way-split Democratic race to finish 390 votes ahead of CA-31’s second-place running Republican. Now I guess we have to wonder whether that result will hold up! (See, there is someplace where Dems are more screwed up electorally than OC!) He’ll face Paul Chabot in November, unless something else happens to screw over the Dems in this district.
5. Jorge Lopez was one of the most significant candidates on the ballot
He spent almost no money and got headlines only when he accused (apparently correctly) Guillory of improper collection of his signatures. But no one in Orange County had a more significant effect on a big race than Jorge Lopez. His almost 20,000 votes kept Webster Guillory from beating Claude Parrish by less than 10% in the primary a second straight time. I’m not sure who keeps voting for Guillory — I suppose that it must be Democrats and NPPs, but if they’ve seen how the office works I can’t imagine why.
Lopez’s voters will naturally gravitate towards Guillory in a no doubt even more expensive runoff. I don’t know which of them I prefer — but I’m guessing that it is whoever is willing to commit to putting Lopez in a position of serious high administrative responsibility in the office, empowered to kick butt and clean things up. And Parrish needs him more than Guillory does — and doesn’t have the strained relationship. Lopez is highly honorable and would not help to manage an ethically dirty office. If Parrish wants to do the job honestly and right, he should be calling Lopez first thing in the morning and figure out what responsibilities he’d require to be (and remain) on the team.
People who voted for Lopez were taking the harder path — and I think he could swing them in November if he was given the ability to help make the office what it should be. I can’t recall ever talking to Lopez about this possibility and I don’t even know if he’d be interested. It would have to be a really good offer — by which I’m talking about authority rather than money. But this could be a blessing in disguise, because someone as experienced, knowledgeable, gutsy, and incorruptible is exactly the sort of person that Parrish should need guiding him through the office if he does win in November. Lopez knows who the talented and honest people are — shouldn’t Parrish want to benefit from such knowledge?
6. Nguyen and Woolery both crush divided fields
Hugh Nguyen‘s victory was pretty much a foregone conclusion to be reelected as Clerk-Recorder — but his getting 60% of the vote was not. And Monica Maddox outscoring Gary Pritchard? I would have lost a lot of money betting otherwise. In the Auditor-Controller’s race, the only chance of beating Eric Woolery was to hold him below 50% in June and hope for a miracle. His five opponents combined couldn’t do it — although Frank Davies rather than Mike Dalati did, as I suspected, have the best shot at taking him to the runoff.
7. In the four non-judicial countywide races with 1 or 2 candidates, my opponent finishes with the fourth most votes and I finish fifth.
Ha-ha, I jest. (It’s true, but still a jest.) Sandra Hutchens comes in first with 187,227 votes for reelection as Sheriff, Shari Friedenreich gets 179,213 for reelection as Treasurer, Al Mijares gets 162,262 to keep the position as County Superintendent of Schools, and Tony Rackauckas comes in fourth with 150,294. I came in fifth, with considerably less. Still, I spent not much more than a nickel per vote — and maybe less than that as the provisional ballots come in; how much did Racky spend on his?
Seriously: my friends seem to have a hard time comprehending how I could be in such a good mood after a 45-point shellacking. (I had thought that I had a decent shot at only a 30-point shellacking.) Here’s the thing: I gave 56,359 people — three out of every eleven voters — the glorious chance to say “no” to Tony Rackauckas. I also spared the county the humiliation of his running unopposed a third straight time — this time after he blew the Kelly Thomas case! After the Building Trades and my own Party Chair worked together to remove me from party office, I could not fundraise in the county and would not even use endorsements from people whom the Trades might subsequently target as well. I got to say some things about the man that others have been afraid to say — and I got a nice big audience for it. Yes, I’m sorry if I disappoint anyone, but I feel pretty damn good right now!
8. And then there are the judicial races
I’m happy that Judge Joanne Motoike got almost 77% of the vote in her race; sad that even 23% opposed her. I’m happy that Thomas Martin and Fred Fascenelli helped hold Rackauckas ally Kevin Haskins below 50% so that KC Jones will get to take him on in the fall. (I hope that they appear often together to discuss their histories and views; they’re both good speakers.)
I’m sad that Carmen Luege lost with 37% to Rackauckas ally Jeff Ferguson; I’m sad that Helen Hayden will end up with just around 39% against Judge Derek Johnson.
9. The State Controller’s race is sad
Do not talk to me about the statewide Controller’s race. It makes me want to do bad things. At least John Perez looks like he is edging out David Evans for the right to take on Ashley Swearengin — but it shoulda been Betty Yee, down by .2%. OK, one last one before we move to a new recap.
10. The Anaheim Ballot Measures
Because everyone swallowed the lie that Measure C was just administrative clean-up rather than a way to hobble the city’s financial watchdog, nobody organized opposition to it until late in the game and it won by almost a 2:1 margin. Measure D (reducing the Mayor’s term) and Measure E (using “safe and sane” fireworks to burn everyplace in Anaheim down except the Hills — or so they think) had more attention before the election. The former lost, and the latter won, by almost identical margins of just under 10%.
Next up — legislative races beyond the surprise in AD-73!
Measure D failure.
The chink in the Kleptocracy’s armor is now a major breach. Apart from completely tipping their greasy hand they actually help unite a ragtag Montagnard army in opposition.
Too late for the Klepto’s to call in an airstrike.
With respect to the OC Board of Education election above (and similarly close reaches) winning and losing seats by double digit votes is idiotic in a county with a population of millions. We need to institute some form of ranked ballot voting now on every level.
Or get more people to vote.
IRV is a common threat to the two established parties and will never be allowed.
Targeted ad on this post: “Private Christian School”
It’s looking really, really possible that we’ll have two Reps and nobody else on the ballot for Controller in November. Thank you, Top Two.
I’m no fan of Top Two, but Perez’s numbers will continue to improve as provisional ballots continue to come in, so I expect that Evans has hit his high-water mark.
I probably will have to await the ‘Statement of Voters’ for precinct figures, but for the 123,485 voters REGISTERED in Anaheim, sadly, ONLY around 14% even CAST votes on C/D/E, compared to a 16.9% average turnout countywide. And this is AFTER several months of heated controversy over Districting! (And still MORE to come!)
Even with the possibility of 100% and 0% precincts buried in the 14%, the biggest cause of ANYONE’S ‘underrepresentation’ (THROUGHOUT Anaheim, and the County, for that matter) has to be the apathy staring back at them from their mirrors! Does it even make eye contact?
BBORW, the Kleptocracy is counting on that apathy but that may be a mistake, too. A small but educated electorate means curtains for the Kleptos.
Prospects not shaping up well for Quirk-Silva & Solorio in the November General Election. Thus, prospects for Dems to maintain super majority in both CA Assembly & Senate not looking too good.
Dunno, a LOT more people show up to vote in November than June. Enough to make up the shortfall between SQS and Young Kim yesterday at least.
17%. Keep that number in mind. 17%. SQS/YK will be the most expensive Assembly race in the state. YK’s former public utterances (where she so effectively put her foot in her mouth) will be on mailers.
My Asian wyfe didn’t appreciate being told that she was going to vote for the Asian because she was Asian and I’m sure SQS will send a nice mail piece with that quote to every Asian household with a headline like “In America people shouldn’t count on your vote just because of your race, but because they have the better idea’s to serve you.” And to Latino households YK’s quote on how they don’t vote with a simple “Are you up to the challenge to prove her wrong?”
Directed and targeted mailings that use Kim’s own words against her will increase her negatives. Follow that with a piece respecting everyone’s civil rights like “When the worst thing that my opponent can say about me is that I voted to respect peoples civil rights and freedom, then I must be doing something right.”
Kim has a problem, she has no positive accomplishments to point to (being Royce’s staff is not an accomplishment) and she has made foolish public statements. Between the two, and with the money that is going to be tossed around, my guess is that the numbers will reverse by November.
For Solorio, it’s clearly a problem. (You’ll have to wait for Part 2 for my analysis., but Nguyen’s performance yesterday is an eye-opener.) For Quirk-Silva? No — she’ll have to fight hard, but the change in the composition of the electorate should allow her to win. Losing by under 9.5% — and that will continue to shrink as provisional ballots come in — simply is not panic time. Given time, we can see how much more Democratic the November vote is, in most races, compared to the vote in June.
Not really. The Vietnamese GOTV effort is high and the absentee ballot % was very high. Plus Solorio did virtually no campaigning that I can discern. But the Dems better get moving.
My impression always was that Janet’s base was more white people; the Viets tending to be more followers of Tran and his acolytes, who really don’t like Janet. And Jose had been courting the Trannies … to the extent of encouraging his friend Long Pham to run.
But maybe that’s different when one of theirs is running for state Senate.
Who is Solorio? Sorry, but no one in Seal Beach, Rossmoor, Los Al or Cypress that I know in political circles has ever met the man in this corner of OC.
Hard to get votes when people don’t ever see you, speak to you, or get to know you.
Exactly, and I was disappointed to see him put his campaign office in the far corner of the district most comfortable and familiar to him – Warner and Bristol, in his old Santa Ana. Shoulda been RIGHT IN THE HEART OF LITTLE SAIGON and staffed by Viet Dems and Trannies. He does know plenty…
Vern, if he “knows plenty” he sure isn’t showing it. Open up an office in the area. Seek out the local press and give a Q&A. We don’t know either candidate, so take one day a week to attend an event in the area. There are three city councils, there is the RHA. This weekend we have a community festival with a Democrats tent/booth. STAFF IT! Hell, show up and do an hour there yourself! And do the sugarbeet “challenge” run with the other adults. Show that you are a human being, not just a candidate who wants their vote. Enter the pie eating contest! Pretend to have fun with the people who you want votes from. Don’t look to march in a parade, but plan on coming out for the fourth of July festival at the Los Al JFTB put on by Rossmoor, Los Al and Cypress (yeah, sometimes the cities even work together) and introduce yourself to the people (no politicking at the JFTB allowed, so just be there and meet people). Sure the Chamber is made up of GOP nimrods for the most part, but show up and tell us how much you hate the 405 expansion plan and what you will do to stop it from happening in a way that will turn this community into the largest parking lot in Southern California and even the GOP will vote for you.
In other words Jose. You already have the Dems who know you. Now give the Dems in this area a reason to go to the polls, and peal off the GOP’rs who will get to know that you represent their interests as well from Nguyen.
This isn’t rocket science, but unless you do this the Dems won’t go to the polls and every vote that stays home is one less for you. And the GOP will vote for the (R) they don’t know rather than the (D) they do, one less vote for you.
You already have Santa Ana. You want to win? Put this area that doesn’t know either of you in your pocket.
Ill make sure Jose reads this thread. I am scheduled to play piano at a fundraiser of his in July…. in SANTA ANA!
I’m sad that you lost Greg.
Money and privilege invested in maintaining the ruling class is once again ground in our faces.
You however, emerge as a true gentleman and a scholar. And the only dude with the BALLS to at least take on the dragon-like powerful and corrupt forces that surround the encumbent District Attorney!
And now he in turn, will continue to do their bidding. Keep the rich folks happy Tony!
Justice? Courage? Fairness? Equality? Democracy? Beuller? Bueller?
Don’t be sad! One thing that seems likely from the overall vote total in my race is that they were quietly pulling out all of the stops. I’ll get to that analysis when time permits. I, on the other hand, spent very little money because given donor apprehension after the whole Building Trades thing it was too hard to raise. So my vote total isn’t inflated by any special effort.
I’m blessed to have people out there who think that a large-as-possible loss will humiliate me and are willing to spend lots of time and money to assure it — when all that shows is that they have very little idea of what humiliation means. It’s not founf in numbers, but in actions, and I feel anything but humiliated today!
10%. 10% of all eligible OC voters just elected the DA.That’s not something that T-Rack should be crowing about. In fact, expect that this electoral fiasco may be the start of trying to change the elections law in OC so that any non-partisan election with two or less candidates will not be on the primary, but will automatically be pushed to the General Election.
Biggest surprise to me was that, within OC, at least, Peace & Freedom had very high turnout compared to other parties. I could guess that they got a very thorough scrubbing of the rolls, leaving a more hardcore group of registrants, but that’s only a guess.
Cindy Sheehan’s higher-than-usual profile probably didn’t hurt. I actually saw a couple of ads for her on cable tv.
Greg,
So what is it that you have against Robert Hammond?
Robert’s a very straight forward guy who’s willing to listen, explain himself and learn from others opinions and feelings. At least that’s been my personal experience, even when we don’t always agree about things.
He has a terrible agenda as a school board member, although an understandable for someone so hostile to public education that he homeschools his own kids. Read Vern’s recent story on the OCBE races for much more detail.
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2014/06/the-existential-teabag-threat-to-oc-schools-why-were-backing-parker-and-boyd/
His daughter is in a public school…so that’s wrong. I saw Vern’s story, it certainly isn’t worthy of a recall, if that’s the best you have.
No, it’s the policies he wants to promote, which will waste a million or so on pointless political litigation, that’s the problem.
“His daughter is in a public school…” Um… checked … WAS briefly, didn’t work out. Saying any more would be rude.
Emboldened by the Lindholm victory and their expected majority, Hammond and Williams have already begun to reject federal funds. More on that over the crazy year to come. My sources say “Hammond WOULD be the easiest to recall, as only about twelve people like him.” It looks like brother Carl may be one of those twelve apostles!
Is in public school, as in, your source IS not fully informed, Vern.
I don’t think I’ve ever been referred to as an apostle before. I’m not sure I fit that term in any way. Robert and I don’t agree about some things, but he’s honest and open about what and why he has the opinions he has.
Robert is his own man, now if that’s problematic to some of those who would like to play fast and loose with the rules or with ethics, then I can see how he might piss some of them off. You want someone to be honest, I think Robert is. You might not like or agree with his opinion but he’ll defend your right to think and say it.
Great job! Diamond may have spent the least per vote of any race in the county, if not the state, maybe even the whole country. I wonder how many voters read his soporific scrolls on this page…and later wandered to the polls in an induced state of somnambulance? Is this an electoral Manchurian candidate scenario? Does Diamond have strange powers of which we are not aware?
Still mourning Rocco. He’ll be back.
Oh yes. Oh, yes I do.