The next Battleground State along the Democratic Party road to the August Convention is the April 22nd primary in the state of Pennsylvania which has 19 Congressional Districts. What a complex mess the DNC has created. They have 188 total delegates of which 158 are pledged to candidates based on CD voting.
The Field Poll– six weeks out – predicts the following outcomes (which will not change beyond a delegate or two if Clinton posts anywhere from 55 to 60 percent of the vote):
CD 1: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 2: Clinton 3, Obama 6 (+3 Obama)
CD 3: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 4: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 5: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 6: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (+0)
CD 7: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 8: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 9: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (+1 Clinton)
CD 10: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 11: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 12: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 13: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 14: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (+1 Clinton)
CD 15: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 16: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 17: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 18: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 19: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
Subtotal of pledged delegates by Congressional district:
Clinton 59, Obama 44 (+15 Clinton)
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From the “PA for uncommitted delegates” web site I found the following if you can follow along.
How Many Delegates Does PA Have At The Conventions?
Democratic Convention, 188 Total Delegates, 30 of them officially uncommitted:
103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State’s 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
CDs 6: 6 delegates each
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
CD 2: 9 delegates
In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs
30 National Convention delegates consist of
27 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
13 Democratic National Committee members.
12 Members of Congress (1 Senator and 11 Representatives).
1 Governor.
1 Distinguished Party Leader.
3 Unpledged “add-on”s (selected by the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee).
Gilbert comments. While I believe that Senator Hillary Clinton will win the popular vote in PA, their apportionment, which is not winner take all as in the GOP, will not lend itself to any significant closing of the delegate gap for Senator Clinton.
This uncertainty will surely become an interesting, smoke filled, DNC Convention in what is designated as a “Green Theme Convention” in Denver. How appropriate!
Winner Take All, while simpler to understand is hardly fairer than proportionality.
Do you think a candidate who gets 50.0001% of the votes in a state should receive all of that state’s delegates?
The allocation of delegates by congressional district, while more complex, makes it more likely that a candidate who gets 60% will end up with about 60% of the delegates.
What’s wrong with that?
A system can’t be both simple and fair.
publius.
Perhaps you might think about the US Electoral College that casts their 538 votes for president in Nov/Dec with the party getting 270 being declared the winner. Each state gets two votes representing their senate members and the balance made up of their state congressional representatives. We only need to go back to the 2000 presidential race where George Bush defeated Al Gore even though Al had won the popular vote.
In watching the Cable TV talking heads coverage of the recent Democratic state contests I must say it is amusing in that the winner does not necessary end up with the majority of the delegates. Simply look at Texas. Hello! The system is broken.
Larry, the DNC does not set up these allocations. The state parties do.
I’m sure the Democrats of Pennsylvania will join me in thanking you for your concern and noting that we can take care of the issues in our own party without your help, just as you can take care of the issues in yours without ours.
Good afternoon Gila.
Nice to hear from you again. I stand corrected. However, be it the DNC or the state parties, the delegate selection system is broken.
While I predicted Hillary to win your primary on this blog perhaps six months ago I do not have a horse in your party’s race. Both of your candidates offer us some nice targets to shoot at if and when you can ever agree as to whom will be the eventual primary victor.
PS: Please forward my thanks to Hillary for taking my 3 a.m. phone call.
So anything slightly complex or unfamiliar to Larry G is deemed “broken.”
Explains a great deal.
I think the Electoral College should move away from “Winner Take All” to some proportionality.
At least one state (Nebraska) already awards electors by congressional district.
publius.
The debate on the curent system of electing the president of the US has been ongoing for some time. Rather than add my own comments let me share some Internet data for you and our other readers.
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Posted 9/24/2004 4:58 PM
Complete Campaign 2004 coverage
Newsletters
Electoral College debate intensifies
By Chuck Raasch, GNS Political Writer
WASHINGTON — The quadrennial questioning of the Electoral College has greater intensity in 2004, in the wake of the dispute over Florida in the last election and fresh attempts to change the way Americans elect their president.
Two congressmen have introduced a bill that would abolish the use of electors, which the founders established in the Constitution to elect presidents and vice presidents. The bill is not expected to pass, but it has raised the viability and fairness of using a winner-take-all system in a nation that is far more populous and far different than when the founders wrote the Constitution more than two centuries ago.
Currently, Americans vote for a slate of electors — usually party leaders or officials — when they cast ballots for president. There are 538 electors spread over 50 states and the District of Columbia, based on population. They gather in their states about six weeks after the election to cast ballots for the slate they pledged to.
“Every citizen’s vote should count in America, not just the votes of partisan insiders in the Electoral College,” said Rep. Gene Green, D-Texas, who sponsored the bill along with Rep. Brian Baird, D-Wash.
In addition, Colorado voters will decide in the Nov. 2 election whether to abandon the winner-take-all provision now followed in 48 states and apportion its nine electoral votes based on the state’s popular vote. If so, Colorado would be the first state to do that. Maine and Nebraska currently have provisions dividing their electoral votes based on the winners of congressional districts.
Proponents say the Colorado initiative adheres more to the principle of one person, one vote. But because the initiative would go into effect immediately if it passes, critics claim it is a stalking horse to help Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry peel away a few electors in what could be a very close election. Had the Colorado system been in place in 2000, Al Gore would have won the presidency regardless of the outcome of the Florida ballot recount fight.
There have been more than 700 attempts to change the Electoral College since its inception. The founders saw electors (they never used the term “Electoral College”) as a way to protect small state interests. They also envisioned electors as educated and connected citizens who would have better insight on leaders in a nation beset by illiteracy and isolation.