Can the last surviving Republican on the Santa Ana City Clowncil survive – in a city dominated by Democrats, and in a presidential election that is sure to bring out the city’s Democratic voters in November?
Bad enough that Clowncilman Bustamante had to quit his two state commission, after his embarrassing “water-bra” comments, but now he is facing off against a progressive Latina who lives in Mayor Miguel Pulido’s Floral Park neighborhood.
Remember that Bustamante was trounced in February of 2007, when he ran against Janet Nguyen for the First Supervisorial District. In that race Democratic candidate Tom Umberg spent thousands of dollars on mail hit pieces that identified Bustamante as a Bush Republican.
There are only 30,804 Republicans in Santa Ana. There are 47,890 Democrats and 17,279 decline to state voters. Those Democrats will be voting. The Republicans will be trying not to gag as they face the prospect of having to vote for John McCain. The odds don’t look good for Bustamante.
And then there is the Steve Rocco factor. Sure, he’s nuts. But there are people in Santa Ana who won’t vote for Latinos. Some of them will vote for Rocco. Others may well vote for Bustamante’s other opponent, Ann Rebecca “Becky” Valencia-Verdin. Her name sounds less ethnic than Bustamante’s.
And to make matters worse, my Republican pajaritos report that Bustamante’s GOP support has dwindled. He won’t be well-funded this time. And the Democrats will align behind Valencia-Verdin. Only the Pulido Democrats will stand by Bustamante, but how much help can Pulido provide when he is facing his own tough race against Councilwoman Michele Martinez?
All in all, the odds look very long for Bustamante. Adios Carlos! It has not been nice knowing you.
Art –
Her given first name is Ana. Her tagline on her website? ‘Putting the Ana back in Santa Ana.‘ That’s not ethnic enough? lol I think she’ll be OK.
SMS
Michele Martinez is horrible! Even if Pulido has not done anything for Santa Ana he is sure to win against Martinez.
#2,
Yep. I don’t see her winning. I do think Pulido may go away in two years, at which point it will be a free for all to replace him.
Art:
Why is it that the Mayor and Council have failed to censure Carlos for his comments? At least the Mayor and or Council could ask that Carlos apologize for his lame comments.
As for Ms. Verdin, I don’t think she has a chance. Carlos is weak, but it takes someone who has at least been involved in the Santa Ana community to take Carlos down.
#4,
I don’t think so. What it comes down to is money. Most people have no clue who any of the dolts on our Clowncil are. But if you send out enough mail you can fool the voters.
The question is, how much negativity does Bustamante have to overcome? It won’t take much to taint him with a couple of mailers and sink his chances.
Any good consultant can help Valencia-Verdin win this. Bustamante is a wounded duck.
I agree with Art. How many people do you know actually take the time to become familiarized with a candidates specific policies? Take Loretta Sanchez’ historic win over Bob Dornan in 1996 as an example. She had a couple things going for her.
1) “Sanchez” as her last name
2) Bob Dornan being out of touch with his constituents.
Prior to that, Loretta Sanchez was Loretta Brinxey and she unsuccessfully ran as a Republican for the Anaheim city council. Now she is a popular Democrat with a strong base of followers.
Do you think people paid close attention to her political views? I don’t think so. All it took was Dornan’s irratic behavior and the appropriate evidence in mailers to prove it.
This upcoming election against Rosie Avila will be a walk in the park. I personally think that she will have to watch out for Assemblyman Van Tran in the next election…
Other than that…if you want to win an election all you need is to have a cultural connection with your constituents, a hurt incumbent, and a steady flow of campaign contributions. Forget about your political stance. You’re average person does not care (of course this applies to local elections. State and national elections are a little more complicated than that…).
I hate to say it, but there are only two chances that Carlos will not be re-elected if his opponents are the two folks that filed, slim and none.
Valencia-Verdin has zero name ID and Rocco’s name ID is all negative. Neither Valencia-Verdin or Rocco has the money on hand to compete with Bustamante.
We know who Rocco is and that isn’t a good thing. Who is Valencia-Verdin? I have never even heard of her.
Bustamante is wounded and currently weakened, however it takes more than that to knock off an incumbent. Realistically speaking Carlos will likely win.
The wild card is John Palacio. Palacio can take out Bustamante. John has the name ID and can raise money. It pains me to say this, anything short of a Palacio candidacy insures a Bustamante victory.
Sean,
You are discounting the damage that Umberg did to Busty in 2007. Folks know that Busty is a Bush Republican.
Shame on Pulido and his cabal for propping up such a lame Republican. Surely this will come back to haunt Pulido when he tries to get the DPOC endorsement. There is NO excuse for backing Busty!
Art,
Who is going to beat him and how are they going to do it? The two candidates running against him currently have no real chance at all.
He can be taken out but it won’t be by some political newcomer with no money or name ID or some conspiracy crazed kook.
He is down but not out by a long shot. He will cruise to re-election unless John Palacio steps up and takes him on.
I am hoping and praying that John comes to our rescue.
Art,
Nobody but the most inside of insiders will even BEGIN to factor in what Umberg did in 2007. It’s a non-issue for this Council run.
It isn’t Pulido’s relationship with Busty that will give the DPOC pause in their endorsement…it’s that Michele Martinez is in the race.
“Surely this will come back to haunt Pulido when he tries to get the DPOC endorsement.”
Does the DPOC endorsement really matter at all? I don’t think that their endorsement will help or hurt Pulido in any way whatsoever. The average voter does not care who the DPOC endorses.
Considering the current make up of the DPOC Central Committee I can foresee Michele getting the endorsement. She will still lose big to Pulido who will garner between 55% and 60% of the vote at the very least.
Pedroza, Then maybe you should run against Pulido.
#12,
No thanks! We have a good candidate now. Pay no heed to Sean’s negativity. The Pulido cabal is trying to discredit Valencia-Verdin. She’ll do just fine.
Palacio won’t run so there is no sense in mentioning him.
I suggest that you contact Valencia-Verdin and offer your help. She has a better chance at beating Busty than Michele Martinez does at beating Pulido.
“Pay no heed to Sean’s negativity.”
It is called reality Art. Valencia-Verdin has no name ID, probably no money for the race and is a political novice.
What does she have going for her other than Carlos Bustamante is a weakened opponent?
Where has she been all these years?
What is her resume?
Where is she gonna raise the money needed to take out an incumbent?
Where is her base of support gonna come from?
You state that, “we have a good candidate now”, but isn’t that what you and folks like Glen and Julie Stroud said four years ago about Carlos Bustamante?
I am proud to say that I cast my vote for Sandy Nalle in that election.
Never underestimate creative campaigning Sean. As a blogger, you of all people should understand that.
SMS
SMS,
Creative campaigning will only be successful if you can get the message out to the people. That takes money and or a large cadre of volunteers.
Don’t fool yourself into thinking the local blogosphere is representative of the voting public.
The majority of those voting no little if anything about any of the candidates. The great majority have never even heard about Bustamante’s recent comments. He will have the money and the fact that he is an incumbent on his side. That is hard to beat.
Sean –
‘The blogosphere?‘ You think that’s all I’m talking about? Do you really find me that one-dimensional? 😛
There are other things she could do to get the word out about her candidacy. Don’t sell her short. It’s not like she has to spend money on opposition research… information about Busty is out there for free if anybody who is interested. She just has to make people get interested which shouldn’t be too hard considering the state of the city.
And of course, she also has excellent credentials in her own regard.
Do you want Busty to win or something?
SMS
“Do you want Busty to win or something?”
Give me a break. Unlike Art and many of the others that you have alligned yourself with, I have never supported Bustamante and I have never cast a vote for him.
The only way she will be able to defeat a seated incumbent is by getting a strong message out to the voters. That takes money and a lot of volunteers. Having folks write fluff pieces about you in the blogs won’t do it.
Apathy has always been a major issue in Santa Ana and it remains so. I don’t see this election being any different.
‘Having folks write fluff pieces about you in the blogs won’t do it.‘
Replace ‘fluff pieces’ with the word ‘news’ and see if that sentence still makes any sense to you. It’s all about message Sean. You know that.
SMS
Sean –
I believe Obama is the prime example of how a no-name candidate can claim the imagination of the public and catapult to victory.
Yes, it’s a hard climb, but it can be done. Take your negativity elsewhere.
Anon,
It also helps when the media gives you free positive PR on a constant basis like they do with Obama. If Valencia-Verdin picks up Oprah’s backing then I will be the first to say she has a good chance at beating Bustamante.
Wake up to reality. She is a long long shot at best.
Wow! Sean’s back baby! And with a vengeance?! 😉
I see your arrogant streak has returned. This isn’t an attack; I’m just saying…
SMS
Has anyone asked Mrs Valencia-Verdin what her views are on family? She claims to want to help people and the community, she can’t even keep her family together.