“State Attorney General Jerry Brown leads San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and other Democrats making noises about running for governor in 2010 – but if Sen. Dianne Feinstein were to jump into the pool, she would swamp them all, a new poll shows,” according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
The poll revealed that Feinstein would lead the field, if you took out Newsom, Villaraigosa and O’Connell. Under that scenario Brown would drop to 24 percent and Feinstein would net 50%. And that would be it for “Moon Beam.”
There is more bad news for Brown. He has an unfavorable rating of 32 percent. That does not bode well for him. And Villaraigosa has the same unfavorable rating. But while Brown enjoys a 41 percent favorable rating, Villaraigosa has only a 24 percent favorable rating. Newsome is also down in the dumps with a 21 percent favorable rating versus a 20 percent unfavorable rating. And 46 percent of voters have no clue who Newsom is.
As for the Republicans, who don’t figure to succeed Schwarzenegger, the good news is that former Congressman Tom Campbell, who is a moderate, is leading by 2-1 over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, disgraced former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina and former chief of EBay, Meg Whitman. Campbell is also known by 37 percent of the voters.
Poizner has become the darling of at least some of the knuckle-draggers, particularly Flash Report hack blogger Jon Fleischman. There are no other Talibani Republicans in the mix – and they will soon be getting a black eye when Prop. 8 fails in November. That will bring them down even more going into the gubernatorial race.
On Monday, 7/28 (tonite) at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, you will never guess the presentation that they will have tonite:
The Future of the Republican Party
In the wake of a major power shift in Washington, does the Republican Party need to reinvent itself? Experts weigh in.
Devin Nunes, U.S. Representative (R-CA)
Meredith Turney, Legislative Liaison, Capital Resource Family Impact
Nicholas Romero, Communications Director, California Young Americans for Freedom; Managing Editor, FlashReport
The bourgeoning neoconservative movement in the U.S. these days has the potential to either split the Republican Party in two or launch it into a new era. Having lost control of both the House and the Senate in the last election, the Republican Party needs to reassess its image and values to broaden its appeal to voters, according to some. Should the Party reinvent itself, or instead re-energize around its core values? Come hear GOP elected officials and experts discuss the issues facing the party and their visions for its future.
When I saw this last week, Ron Nehring, the gofer disciple of Grover Norquist and employer of undocumented immigrants who marry to get citizenship and sue the US government over deportation orders (my God they are not Mexican) and doghouse resident was to headline the panel.
He is not going to make it. Obviously out trying to gather funds to pay off the Centrist Republican donors that Arnold recruited last year and that the Cal GOP has stiffed. Instead you have a not well known congressman, a Taliban hack (turney) who works for the Taliban inspired Capital Resource Institute in Sacramento (one of the leading parties in proposing Proposition 8 and overturning the rule of law in California, and a hack PR mentioso.
This should be fun. Im driving done from Sac to see this flameout. By the way, a Mormon gay man (from Orem,Utah and as he says the reddest city in the reddest county in the reddest state) stood up Saturday nite and wrote a check for $1MM out of his personal funds (he designed WordPerfect with his professor from Brigham Young University)to defeat Proposition 8. The Capital Resource Institute and Turney (a graduate of Biola-maybe she is an amiga of David “I cant put a coherent thought together let alone express it in public” Benavides, of the Santa Ana City Clowncil) must be pissed. Now they will have to further rely on the Dobson clowns of Focus on the Family, the NeoKnights of Columbus, and other out of state groups that have contributed to the passage of Prop 8.
At least its more money for the political hacks of California (our favorites such as Mike wanna be Dark Knight Shroeder, JubalIdiot Cunningham and John “I have my OCSD Reserve officer badge and my time sheets are all up to date” Fleischmann) less one (Aleman waitlisted for the Gray Bar Hotel). The Tsunami is coming. Duv Sundheim—are you listening to the Centrist Republicans as the water in the Talibani Republican toilet drains?????
*SCR….NO New Majority prime-slime please! You
can name call…you can thwart…you can jump up and down and throw out all kinds of annecdotal (neo-con)”that’s what WE are!” rhetoric. The truth be known. The 2nd Amendment is hanging in there in spite of “We are Familily….New Majority…..We have all the money……We are truely the chosen ones of the Republican Party…”
baloney. Best of all…they are good at talking like a Conservative and acting like a flaming Liberal….truely “Newspeak par excellance!”
Name one….just one, Conservative voice in Orange
County…other than Chuck DeVore? Everyone else looks pretty “squeeshy” to us. Talk..we will listen…if you can think of anyone else.
OK…now for Senor Arturo: Dianne Feinstein is not only too intelligent, but getting on in years to run a “Dowager Gubernatorial Campaign”. We love your wishful thinking however. The story is like this: Think Youth! If Obama wins….there will be a huge “Youth Movement in Politics around
the nation!” It happened big time when Kennedy won. All of s sudden 25 year old surfers in San
Diego were running for State Senator! You did bring up Jack O’Connell who might be able to challenge John Garamendi….but neither one could
beat a well funded Tom Selleck campaign….you know…an actual Conservative?
Feinstein is in her mid-70’s, older than John McKain for instance. Hey, if old folks like that can stand a chance to be elected Governor, there is still a chance for folks like me! Amazing —
Ron
with all due respect, there are conservative pundits both here in Sac and in the Bay Area that believe that the Cal GOP is dysfunctional. As a Republican centrist, it is interesting to note that Centrist politicians (both Dems and Reps) get elected statewide in California.
I am supporting Tom Campbell. He is a moderate thinking Republican. And God forbid, he speaks Spanish. He has a deep understanding of the needs of minority communities in this state and the economic challenges faced by California residents and the cities they live in.
As to your comments, lets go over them:
“*SCR….NO New Majority prime-slime please! You
can name call…you can thwart…you can jump up and down and throw out all kinds of annecdotal (neo-con)”that’s what WE are!” rhetoric.”
The reality is that the CAL GOP is bankrupt. It cannot pay its debts to the NEW Majority GOP lenders. PERIOD. It is hemoragging it current registration levels. Not anecdotal evidence but fact. Hanging on to the Taliban elements insures its further demise.
“The truth be known. The 2nd Amendment is hanging in there in spite of “We are Familily….New Majority…..We have all the money……We are truely the chosen ones of the Republican Party…”
baloney.”
Ron, the 2nd Amendment issue is a federal issue. Im only interested in the current problems that the residents of California, and that is ALL residents, face on a daily basis. Will that impact the 2nd amendment? Maybe. On the California to-do list, it is way down there.
“Best of all…they are good at talking like a Conservative and acting like a flaming Liberal….truely “Newspeak par excellance!””
Ron, quite bluntly, if you want to live in a society that reflects your moral foundation, California is not the place for you. For that matter, neither are the other 49 states altho some are probably closer to your way of thinking. In short, we live in a society where there is a separation of church and state, where the rule of law is decided by our judges (whether we personnally like them or not). Despite what you may think, California is a very well run state. Do we have problems? Absolutely. The impact and constriction of Prop 13 on California we are now coming to grips with as the people who benefited the most from Prop 13 die and the disfunctional elements of Prop 13 come to light. Those elements will change. They must. If they dont, California will be in a worsened position than it is now. We have structural governmental problems (both fiscal and governmental) that must be changed.
“Name one….just one, Conservative voice in Orange
County…other than Chuck DeVore? Everyone else looks pretty “squeeshy” to us. Talk..we will listen…if you can think of anyone else.”
Ron, with all due respect to you, here in Sacramento most OC legislators are viewed as lazy and disfunctional by many. The exception is Spitzer. The lead rep is Roger Niello out of Sacramento (the only Rep not to sign the lunatic Grover Norquist’s pledge) and who is guide on the Budget. Not one OC (rep or dem) legislator is involved. Ackerman petered out after last years budget debacle and the fact that he is termed out. Devore only has the nuclear issue going for him. These legislators are short term. Thanks to term limits. Had Prop 98 passed you would have a continuation in office of Ackerman and Spitzer. Unfortunately they are the only ones having any substance. And the rest? The best descriptive term is lackluster at best. And that is being generous. What is coming in? Harkey? There is an explosion of incompetance waiting to happen! Who’s left? or on the horizon? Bustamante? his career is over-besides his womanizing has caught up with him. Just a continuation of the Briggs/Schmitz/Dannemayer group funded by the Karcher/Voit/Knott etal group from years ago. The only difference is that no one pays any attention to the newbies except at the local level. And that will change.
“OK…now for Senor Arturo: Dianne Feinstein is not only too intelligent, but getting on in years to run a “Dowager Gubernatorial Campaign”. We love your wishful thinking however. The story is like this: Think Youth! If Obama wins….there will be a huge “Youth Movement in Politics around
the nation!” It happened big time when Kennedy won. All of s sudden 25 year old surfers in San
Diego were running for State Senator! You did bring up Jack O’Connell who might be able to challenge John Garamendi….but neither one could
beat a well funded Tom Selleck campaign….you know…an actual Conservative?”
While I like Selleck, he is aware of the politics of the California Republican party. California Centrist Republicans are competitive. All one has to do is look at the Republican Centrist Coattails in 2006. People like Tom (I have two houses and still get my per diem)McCLintock and Tony and Audra (yes we will get our per diems for both of us as well as our retirement and the benefits accrue to each of us should we predecease the other) Strickland are exemplary models of why downticket Taliban Republicans dont do well statewide. And wont. As for Feinstein, she has tremendous popularity, is a woman, has executive credentials, and is well liked by Californians of all political persuasions. And has no baggage unlike the other Dems. The only credible candidate opposite her is Tom Campbell. Welcome to the real world of California politics.
Sorry, hanging on to Selleck as the last greatt white hope is not going to cut it with California voters. And he knows it-and has read the tea leaves.
Date of Birth:22 June 1933, San Francisco, California, USA
Dianne..just celebrated her 75th…would be
77 by the time she could launch her campaign.
Would be 86 after eight years in office.
Age has it’s privileges!
God help us if we get stuck with Feinstein. I won’t vote for her. She has proven herself to be a supporter of big pharmaceutical and the war industry. Nothing more than “Republican lite”. I might as well vote Republican if I vote for Feinstein.
Sean is right…Feinstein is has consistently capitulated to the current administration on the important issues of the day. She’s done some good things for California, and she’s smart, but overall a disappointment in an era where Dems need to have more spine.
Ron
and your point is?
Taking Feinstein out of the equation, how old do you think the front runner (then) Jerry Brown is?
Sean:
In the larger scheme of things, I respect the fact that you have an opinion and participate in the debate on elective politics. The business of her husband (aquisition specialist who buys troubled companies and sells them) really does not enter in to the equation. As successful as she has been, do you honestly think that she participates in the decisions her husband makes in his business? If she did, we would have known about it a long time ago. Especially when these companies are bidding on defense contracts, there are too many persons involved in a very lengthy Federal procurement process. Had she unduly injected herself in this process (whatever the company), it would have been front page news in much the same way of Dick Cheney’s investment holdings in Halliburton/KBR have been known and discussed for several years.
Remember this: we live to a longer age and are more active. She will be a dominant candidate.
Mayor Villar (he no longer can use Raigosa after cheating on his wife for years on end, they put their names together when they got married), Mayor Newsome, and Attornery Gen. Brown CANNOT be our next Governors!!!!!
Villar hasn’t done anything for LAUSD, the budget is out of control, no “Million Trees” were ever planted, and he lied about the raised trash fee (otherwise known as a tax, hello!) going to hire “A Million Cops.”
Newsome’s sanctuary city status caused the city to protect illegal criminals so they wouldn’t get deported and now one murdered 3 members of a family because they temporarity blocked him from making a left hand turn in an ally way. Then there’s a group of missing Central American criminals who San Fran sent to a half way house in San Bernadino who have since escaped.
Then there’s Brown….what? we don’t have anyother politicians in California we have to go with one’s who already had their chance?
We need smart, well-educated, non-partisan, experienced, straight-talking, humble, well spoken, balanced individuals running in 2010. Where can we find such gems? I have no idea, but we shouldn’t stand for the clowns we have now just because we don’t see any possible contenders yet on the horizon.
Tom Selleck. Isn’t that the actor who played the healthily “out” homosexual journalist in “In & Out”, kind of threw Kevin Cline for a loop with a hot kiss? I wonder how he fits into Larry’s GOP?
Sean I agree DiFi has been one of the most disappointing Senators to us progressive Dems. But when I look at the ways she’s failed us as Senator … it still seems like maybe she could be a good Governor. (Need to think about that for a while)
*SCR – dude..as a 5th Generation Californian..here
we can believe what we like! There is no Hiram
Johnson…but only a “Toddy The Boddy Spitzer”?
Lord helps us if Megan’s Law actually had teeth,
Todd would not have another issue to stand on!
You might notice that nationally: (sorry to think
out of your self imposed box)…only 15% think that Congress is doing a great job. Here in CA..our bet is that it is less than that. Arnold
didn’t spend all $20 Billion dollars over budget
by himself. So what makes your dandy New Sorority
Group…which include John Irvine Smith and your bud Donnie Bren…offer much to us disgruntled Joes from the Hinterland?
Broke….we should say. The CA Republican party has to offer up some new players….or some old players with “Traditional Values”! We know that us old “Traditional Values” people are no big deal
but don’t expect us to send our $10 bucks in …if
you plan on bailing out Hedge Fund Managers and out of work Goldman-Sachs execs.
Try this in the mirror: “No raising the taxes!”,
“Your firearms are safe here in California!” (State Issue? – Have you ever heard of the Semi-Auto Ban after the Stockton Massacre?) California
that is! “NO Unregulated Pot dispensed by local Drug unlicensed Dealers!” “We support No Child Left Behind testing and accountability by teachers!” “We are not Democrats!”, “We are going to be against raising State Fuel Taxes..and
CA Registration rates…no matter what!”
Now, if you can say those things ….from the heart and can train three monkey’s with Blue Blazers and Grey Slacks to do that…..you might
get your Republicans funded….until the next
election cycle! Otherwise, close all the offices
and do what you do best…operate on the cheap with your Army of unpaid volunteers. You can start Tent City officers all around state…by
occupying closed State Parks!
Sorry SCR….Tom Selleck may not be connected..but
either was Arnold at the time! Once Arnold got started……stuff started to happen – didn’t it?
McClintock is a lovely old shoe….along with Bill
Jones…and….and….and…
Time to move up or out! We doubt Michelle Steel
can win against “Downtown Jerry Brown!” Or a well
funded John Garamendi! Who else have you got again?
Old people rule.
Maybe the age limits on governors and presidents should be raised to 70 or 75.
Term limits wouldn’t be needed, and there would be real savings on pensions.
How about Debra Bowen for a contender on the horizon????
Oh, my god. I don’t think so. Mrs Feinstein has lost many many points this past year and she should just leave things in Sacramento to those Democrats that will stand up and fight for our rights and hard earned tax dollars. We should no longer subsidize politicians that forget who put them in office.
CJ
Ron
you need to get a grip on reality….
“*SCR – dude..as a 5th Generation Californian..here we can believe what we like! There is no Hiram Johnson…but only a “Toddy The Boddy Spitzer”? Lord helps us if Megan’s Law actually had teeth, Todd would not have another issue to stand on!”
My OC roots go back to pre WWII days. Get over the 5th Generation crap-it holds no water anymore in OC let alone the state. To a time when OC meant orange groves as far as the eye could see, when the Yorba decendants owned most of OC, when I-5 was a two lane roadway past the Dirigible hangers in El Toro, and Newport Beach was a sleepy little town next to Costa Mesa (and yes I had an uncle on the NBPD and yes he was white)
So are you saying that you are unfamiliar with Hiram Johnson, the father of the concept of the California proposition and the right of the citizens to exercise their voice through the ballot proposition? Sounds like you are not a fan to Todd Spitzer?
“You might notice that nationally: (sorry to think
out of your self imposed box)…only 15% think that Congress is doing a great job. Here in CA..our bet is that it is less than that. Arnold
didn’t spend all $20 Billion dollars over budget
by himself. So what makes your dandy New Sorority
Group…which include John Irvine Smith and your bud Donnie Bren…offer much to us disgruntled Joes from the Hinterland?”
Ron…
The work that I do requires a daily knowledge of those events in Washington and that means the popularity of the Congress. Unfortunately, when people are polled, they do have an unfavorable reaction to the Congress as a whole, but when they are asked about their individual representative, by and large they have very favorable opinions about that individual representative. While it is informative to know, it has no bearing on California and our problems (the viewpoint of citizens of other states about the Congress as a whole). I quite frankly pay more attention to the Field Poll and PPIC and their sterling trackrecord of positing the views of Californians over the years.
Re: the Irvines, you need to get things right. Its Joan Irvine Smith, not John and she’s been around the block for many years. She has been a prominent political player in Orange County for years not to mention the fact that she is a woman and had to deal with the crap voiced by the Karl Karchers (sic) and Walter Knotts, Arnold Beckman, et al of the Lincoln Club. You need to get up to speed and know your players.
In terms of spending the money, you are right. Arnold didnt spend the money by himself. Neither did any of the individual legislators in Sacramento, both Dem and Reps. Get a grip. OC is one of 58 counties in California. The problems faced by the other 57 counties EXIST in ORANGE COUNTY. With one exception. ORANGE COUNTY IS ALONE IN GOING BANKRUPT. BUT IT SURE WANTS ITS FAIR SHARE OF STATE MONIES.
To your question of what is offered to you, a better California for all. The problem is that you want a Better California as you have defined it. The California of 1960 (and yes I was alive then-you and I are approximately the same age) is dead and gone as is the Orange County that produced the John Schmitz and John Briggs of California.
“Broke….we should say. The CA Republican party has to offer up some new players….or some old players with “Traditional Values”!–Traditional Values, as you define them, are dead. The California Republican Party, as its now constituted and dominated by the Talibani Republicans like you, IS NOT A PLAYER ON THE STAGE. AND WONT BE. Whether you believe that or not is not my problem. All you have to do is look at state wide results for Talibani Republicans like Tom McCLintock. DOWN IN FLAMES.
“We know that us old “Traditional Values” people are no big deal but don’t expect us to send our $10 bucks in …if you plan on bailing out Hedge Fund Managers and out of work Goldman-Sachs execs.”
Ron….
I agree with you. We should not be bailing out such individuals or institutions. We should hold them accountable for their actions. That is the problem that the Comptroller and Secretary of the Treasury as well as the Congress is having in this economic downturn. You are right.
“Try this in the mirror: “No raising the taxes!”,
Ron….hate to disappoint you, but they are coming. Grover Norquist’s idiotic maneuver last year with the Republican Caucus-1 (Roger Niello) is hollow. It is falling by the wayside.
“Your firearms are safe here in California!” (State Issue? – Have you ever heard of the Semi-Auto Ban after the Stockton Massacre?)
Ron….
Get a grip…Yes I am intimately familiar with the Stockton school shooting incident. More than you know or that I am willing to discuss. This was the primary reason, bolstered by the 101 California shooting in San Francisco, that prompted Feinstein to introduce the assault weapons ban legislation. While I know that you wont, get into the 21st century and understand the criminal elements that our police departments up and down the state, face (and yes they are in Orange County and they are in Newport Beach-you just are unwilling to see it).
“California that is! “NO Unregulated Pot dispensed by local Drug unlicensed Dealers!”
Ron… I agree with. Licensing dealers to dispense medicinal pot will seriously affect the ability of individuals to purchase pot on the street. In a positive way. Why buy on the street when one can purchase without fear of retribution?
The police can then focus on the criminal elements on the street that you and I both agree should be dealt with.
“We support No Child Left Behind testing and accountability by teachers!” “We are not Democrats!”, “We are going to be against raising State Fuel Taxes..and CA Registration rates…no matter what!”
Again, Ron, you need to stop confusing federal mandates with California issues. The evidence of the failure of “No Child left behind” is overwhelming and not limited to California but across the nation. For California to succeed in educating its youth, performance expectations of its youth and teachers must be raised. But raised above the No Child left behind expectations.
“Now, if you can say those things ….from the heart and can train three monkey’s with Blue Blazers and Grey Slacks to do that…..you might
get your Republicans funded….until the next
election cycle!”
Ron….with that attitude, no wonder you are frustrated.
“Otherwise, close all the offices and do what you do best…operate on the cheap with your Army of unpaid volunteers. You can start Tent City officers all around state…by occupying closed State Parks!”
Ron…again, welcome to the 21st century and the cost of government in California. With that type of thinking, Im sure that you think that police officers and fire fighters dont deserve the wages they make today and should be what they made in 1972 Prop 13 levels (not adjusted for inflation).
“Sorry SCR….Tom Selleck may not be connected..but
either was Arnold at the time!”
Ron….Im sure that he is. If he thought that he could change things, he would be in the mix. He is smart enough to realize that the structural problems that WE CALIFORNIANS FACE are extremely diffucult and virtually impossible to change without a new mindset. The Republican Talibani complaint of reduced spending and smaller state government espoused by the Cunninghams and Fleischmanns of the world is old. It has no impact anymore.
“Once Arnold got started……stuff started to happen – didn’t it?”
Ron…. I hate to burst your bubble. The structural fiscal problems that Arnold now confronts were the same faced by both Gray Davis, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, and Jerry Brown during their terms of office. You should search around and look for anything on the internet where they COLLECTIVELY discuss the fiscal problems of California. You would be surprised at the unanimity of thought amongst them.
“McClintock is a lovely old shoe….along with Bill
Jones…and….and….and…”
Ron…..
where is Bill Jones TODAY? and his performance the last time he ran for public office? McClintock is running to replace disgraced John Doolittle. Another member of the Republican Talibani Hall of Shame (too many members to list here-but you know who they are)
“Time to move up or out! We doubt Michelle Steel
can win against “Downtown Jerry Brown!” Or a well
funded John Garamendi!”
Ron… I agree with you. She doesnt have the philosophy to win statewide against either of them. Either of them will swamp her. Brown will swamp Garamendi. Garamendi, while knowledgeable, just doesnt have the excitement that voters seek.
“Who else have you got again”
In a Republican party dominated by Talibani thinking that makes it not competitive state-wide, there are none. You are right. But I see light with the candidacy of Tom Campbell. And competance and diversity are trademarks of his past accomplishments (both educationally and professionally). And he is electable statewide, even though the Talibani wing of the California GOP will rail.
With Feinstein in the race, all bets are off.
SCR, you seem exceptionally knowledgable about this stuff, so I’m curious about your opinion of Bowen. She doesn’t have the name recognition of Brown, Feinstein, Garamendi et al., but I truly think she’s achieved important accomplishments as Secretary of State. Am I being (probably true to form) overly naive to think she would be a viable candidate???
From Matier and Ross-July 30 am
The Feinstein factor: Dianne Feinstein insists she hasn’t made any calls about running for governor – but all the same, it’s becoming a hot topic among Democratic insiders.
That’s because of the recent poll by JMM Research that had the senator the first choice of a whopping 50 percent of the Democrats surveyed for the 2010 race.
Attorney General Jerry Brown, the presumptive front-runner to that point, suddenly found himself a distant second at 25 percent.
The possibility of a Feinstein run was topic No. 1 at San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s wedding over the weekend – all the more so because Newsom has just announced his own intention to look into the race.
And there was no shortage of scenarios discussed among the A-listers about what might make Feinstein run, like:
John McCain wins the presidential election and the Democrats fail to capture strong Senate and House majorities – so Washington gridlock continues and Feinstein sees no point in staying.
Or Barack Obama wins in November, and the Democrats keep control of the Senate, so Feinstein can leave Washington free of any guilt that she would be leaving her fellow Democrats in a lurch.
Whatever the case, going for the governorship would be a “free run” for Feinstein – her Senate term isn’t up until 2012, so she could always go back to D.C. if she runs in 2010 and loses.
And, if she won as governor, Feinstein could name her own Senate replacement.
Still, maybe Feinstein’s nonchalance isn’t an act. The JMM poll was shown to her last week by Rep. Jackie Speier, D-Hillsborough – but apparently Feinstein didn’t even share the numbers with her husband, Dick Blum
Longboobs
Thanks for the compliments. I very much appreciate them. With respect to Bowen, she needs a great deal of seasoning. To her credit, she has done well in running the SOS office, but its not like the other constitutional offices-Insurance Commissioner, controller, etc will give greater substantive experience. Remember she has legislative experience but not in a leadership position while she was in office. That needs to change. The whole situation revolving around the voting machines gave her great exposure but it was a situation waiting to be resolved. A no brainer. Feinstein, on the other hand, was a member of the SF BOS, and president of the BOS, and then ran the city as mayor after Moscone was killed. She then moved up to Senate. The HofR was never in her plans. I will say that the hidden gem here is Jackie Spier. She would be a great Governor and most likely after Feinstein. She is now in the HofR replacing Tom Lantos. But there you are 1 of 435. You are buried. She has come out swinging but seniority has its perks.
If Feinstein runs, she has a free pass. She is up for reelection in 2012. Arnold is termed out in 2010. They are very close. She could run without any penalty. She wins=she is the governor AND appoints her successor. She loses=she is still in the USS and as a senior member on the Dems side. Many younger dems dont appreciate her=I understand why: they dont think she is as progressive as they would like her to be. But she fits well in the USS. And she is unbeatable. Look at her previous campaigns:she swamps her republican opponents.
On the Reps side, who do we have? Female candidates that is? None. Fiorina puts her foot in her mouth everytime she opens it–not to mention her lack of experience in politics and her lack of intelligence in terms of political economics. On those instances where she has opened up her mouth, she sounds off like she did when she was CEO at HP. We all know what a debacle her tenure there was. And that is the baggage that she would bring if she ran for governor. You can see the campaign ads now: and the commercial with Walter Hewlett in it. They paid her to get out because they could not stand her any longer and the merger with compaq was the final straw.
Meg Whitman, the former head of Ebay, is the other REP female. She has the academic credentials-Harvard MBA, et al., but her career was undistinguished until she took over EBAY. She was in the right place at the right time. The other problem is that she has the Romney baggage. She is both Mormon (sorry if you are but we are talking politics here) and very bland (unlike Fiorina) which I think are death elements in California politics (ask Garamendi-and Tom Campbell)
There is a comfort zone with Feinstein-a known commodity. She will win if she runs. Spier has an accomplished legislative track record in Sacramento (safe seat now gives her a pulpit to move from-run for governor-run for US Senate). Fiorina has business accomplishments but also failures. She has no connection with democratic minority voters which she would need in order to win. Whitman, while even more accomplished than Fiorina and with a positive business accomplishment resume, is not very well known amongst the electorate. Kind of like a stealth candidate. Neither of these two have any legislative creedentials (but then neither did Schwarzennegger-but he had great name recognition and it resonated with the electorate) and so the Rep competition is, at best, very slim. We will see a Democratic Woman governor in California within 4 years. It will be Feinstein. She will blaze a trail for both Spier and Bowen.
Thats my take.
Longboobs
I didnt mean to imply that both Garamendi and Campbell are Mormon. I have no idea what their religious backgrounds are. And it makes no difference to me what it is. Unfortunately, the Mormon element, in Whitman’s case, is a big negative especially in a pro-choice state.
With both Campbell (who I like) and Garamendi, both are very accomplished individuals. Highly educated, they both have a sizeable legislative carreer to point to. In Campbells case, he is very accomplished in an academic environment (both Stanford and Berkely) and is incredibly aware and understands the California electorate and especially the minority electorate. He is a centrist, as is Poizner, but has the credentials that Poizner does not have.
The problem is that personality is a crucial element that sets the electorate talking and considering your candidacy. Garamendi has run for statewide office before but has not been able to generate the interest by the democratic electorate in a gubernatorial run as others have.
Both Campbell (now the frontrunner according to the polls and if he wants to beat the Dems) and Garamendi (if he wants to beat Jerry Brown, assuming Feinstein did not run, and win) would need to develop a charismatic connection with the voters.
SCR:
Extremely informative perspective. Thanks so much for taking the time to comment!
Garamendi announced his run today