Background: Geeky pollster Nate Silver has teamed up with blogger Sean Quinn to host the political polling website fivethirtyeight.com (538 is the number of electors in the electoral college). Silver got his start with baseball statistics compilations, but has moved into the realm of politics using complex verification systems, explained in his faq.
Hockey Mom or fourth-line hockey agitator? Sean Quinn addresses the Hockey Mommery in Sarah Palin’s run up for GOP VP in the November 2008 Election. Quinn, “Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom. She’s a hockey player……….
“She’s a fourth-line hockey agitator, beloved by the home crowd, loathed by the opponents, injecting passion into both fan bases, the kind of home-team hero that no Stanley Cup winner goes without. The fourth-line, no-scoring-talent, pest agitators (or as we now call them, “energy guys”) have a specific job. Skate in, take a cheap shot, make it after the whistle. Make it against the rules. Stir something up. Put a wet glove in the other guy’s face and rub it. Get the outrage flowing. Get the opponent not thinking about the game, get them thinking about your shenanigans. And what happens? The “victimized” team loses its composure, hitting back. The guy who hits second is always the guy who goes to the penalty box.
Watching Sarah Palin this week, and the reaction to her by both sides, and all the talk of hockey mommery, I realized that this is who she is. She skates into the corner, throws up an elbow, and the Democrats cry: “Foul!” Hey! She said Obama has never passed a major bill – this is an objective lie! Hey! She ridiculed community organizing the day after Service was the theme! Technically people should punish her by not voting for her over this infraction!
It’s whining, and whiners hit back second and go to the penalty box on top of it.
In the hockey analogy, Palin wouldn’t get within a thousand miles of an NHL All-Star Game because she’s not a scoring talent. She’s a role player, an emotion-rouser. Emotion messes with the chalkboard-drawn game plan and thus achieves a specific strategic objective. She can make game-changing agitation plays that rouse her home team and provoke the other side into counterattacks that – 100% of the time – end up punishing the team who hits back. Democrats would be smart to understand her as such, and I see a lot of reaction that doesn’t seem to grasp what Palin is doing and the value she’s providing. I see a lot of Democrats taking a lot of bait.
Finalizing the analogy, in the end a great hockey agitator who rouses both sides emotionally (and successfully gets the other team to lose focus) still needs the home team scoring talent to come through. Successful agitator Kris Draper of the Detroit Red Wings had the clutch Steve Yzerman for a lot of years. That worked. Detroit won Cups. They had parades.
Successful agitator Tyson Nash, when he was on my Blues, was stuck with the antithesis of playoff clutch, the easily thrown-off-his-game Keith Tkachuk. That didn’t work. No Cup. Even if Palin is successful in her task of agitation and distraction, which one is John McCain?”
Quinn: Once upon a time, I applied an NFL-replay mentality to hockey playoffs, holding on to outrages over missed calls, blatantly unfair officiating, double standards, and outright getting-away-with-stuff (which always led to an early spring exit for my beloved Blues). I wanted – and unreasonably expected – bad behavior to be proportionally punished.
And then several years ago I had an epiphany about the hockey playoffs – nobody is coming to save you. Initiators win, reactors lose. Expect adversity, because it’s built in.
I think that’s pretty accurate. Still a long time till the election.
If Gnr. Palin keeps up this crap like what she said today:
““John McCain has been calling for years to reform things and cut bureaucracy, even at the lending agencies that our government supports,” Palin said during a rally Saturday afternoon. “The fact is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they have gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers. The McCain-Palin administration will make them smaller and smarter and more effective for homeowners who need help.”
shows her to live in an alternate reality to mine.
Hello no_vaseline,
Thanks for weighing in on this topic. It looks like you have taken time off from IHB to weigh in on this issue, and I appreciate that very much. You are a poster who addresses the facts- that is very much appreciated here.
A couple more things that I thought were interesting about the 538 site is that they try to be objective about how they aquire their data. I will be checking their site for their polling results.
The two main bloggers there both reveal that their research leads them to support Obama. That fact makes me cautious, but I also, think that Obama is the superior choice. Having that said, I thought that their analysis was interesting as far as strategy goes.
I wonder how long the average voter will allow Sarah Palin to decline to participate in interviews. We have already had that elitist decline of addressing the issues for 8 years. I want answers. Perhaps she will give them, but her wholesale objection to answering questions makes me cautious.
Right now, I am thinking that her choice was a cynical and simplistic strategy to prop up McCain.
I’m torn on this one, in a country that worships “the cult of personality” and gets bored with policy details, it’s hard to predict whether reasoned arguments will trump lies and smears. Kerry ignored the “swiftboat” attacks and lost (supposedly) and Bill Clinton kept the focus on the economy and won. Unfortunately Americans have a bias against intellectuals and “policy wonks”, they want their President to be just like them, although they could be sobered up by hard economic times.
whatttt!!!!!!!!! ,
Just refusing to discuss the issues is going to be problematic. How long can the GOP hide out? I agree- too many of us look and act like chickens. We peck, peck, peck here and then run off to the next thing to peck, peck, peck, before something else catches our eye and then peck, peck…….
From the Randi Rhoades show/Air America:
McCain Spokesmodel Nicole Wallace exchange with TIME correspondent Jay Carney:
CARNEY: We don’t know yet and we won’t know until you guys allow her to take questions…can she answer tough questions, you know, domestic policy, foreign policy–
WALLACE: But I mean like from who? Who cares?
NOTE: Over 100,000 hits on YouTube in less than 24 hours:
#2.
Thank you for the kind words of welcome. I am very fact and data driven, and most users will find my posts here will lean less to rhetoric and more to facts.
However, I have little tolerence to suffer fools, those who missrepresnt facts, or for a ‘flexable’ morality (I am a strict observant Catholic) that seems to be in fashion.
NoVaseline,
Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy is very well tolerated right now, by the same people that most likely would have crucified Chelsea Clinton if she had turned up preggers….
My how times have changed….. 😉
#5. Appreciate your input, but is “no vaseline” an actual Roman Catholic stricture that goes along with the bans on contraception and abortion? I don’t seem to recall it from my old Baltimore Catechism, or any subsequent encyclicals.
Just kidding.
Did you know that it is now day 10 since Sarah Palin has accepted the VP nomination, yet she has given NO interviews?
Kind of goes against those promises that John McCain gave just this last April:
John McCain quote, from April 14, 2008 – Remarks to Associated Press Annual Meeting.
I believe in giving great access to the press for three reasons. First, I much prefer long back and forths, where reporters have multiple follow ups and I have an opportunity to explain my views in greater detail…
Second, I think reporters are better able to meet their first responsibility of ensuring an informed citizenry if they are allowed to press a candidate for more than a gotcha quote or a comment on whatever the cable driven news environment has decided is the process story of the day.
Last, and most importantly, the responsibility of an informed citizenry is as much my responsibility as it is yours. I don’t believe in deceiving voters about my positions, my beliefs or how I would govern this country were I to have the extraordinary privilege of serving as President. I want voters to know and understand my positions.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/mccains_re….
#7-
RE: The whole Catholic thing. Do we have to go there? We could dedicate years of discussion to this topic.
RE: the backstory to my handle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Vaseline
Hey Red – count again.
It has been 4 days since Palin officially accepted the Republican nomination for VP. I am sure you will hear from her soon. And you probably will not like what she has to say to and about liberals.
Oh, I’m sure she’ll have plenty of nasty things to say about liberals, that’s her forte. We’d like to hear what she knows about foreign policy and what her ideas are about a lot of issues. But I think you’ll be waiting longer than you think, junior. Didn’t you hear Rick Davis tell Fox News that she would be available for interviews “when she’s ready”?
Junior,
True and my mistake for not being more clear. Govenor Palin has known that she was selected for GOP VP 10 days ago. She seems to have gotten all shy and will not do interviews. I guess you could say that
McCain= POW
Palin = MIA
🙂
I’ve heard what she has to say – scripted by others. I am more interested in what she’ll say at the debates and in unscripted interviews. California Senator Barbara Boxer calls Govener Palin an “Extremist”. I’d like to decide for myself before the elections.
“California Senator Barbara Boxer calls Govener Palin an “Extremist”.”
Red,
I nearly fell off of my chair with that one – ha – ha -ha ! Good joke !
It was a joke – right? – Barbara Boxer” hee – hee hee, ha, ha, – I can’t stop laughing. You crack me up gal.
BTW – Has big mouth Joe Biden done any interviews since he was nominated? I heard him threaten to file criminal charges against Bush & Cheney if he and Barry win – but not much else.
How is that for reaching across the aisle? – to grab your worthy opponent by the throat.
#12.
He was on Meet the Press this morning. His second trip this year, and his fourty second lifetime.
Sarah Palin candidate is dodging the press, yet the Republican machine continues to deamonize the media. It appears the good Governor Hocke can’t handle a couple reporters – with or without training wheels.
I’m curious how long she’ll be able to evade the media before the public decides this is unaceptable.
It’s all about McCain and No Drama Obama.
I am actually wondering if Ms. Palin is not having some form of “Buyer’s Remorse”. If she and McCain lose this thing then all bets are off on if she’ll even be able to retain her little fiefdom in Alaska – where she was free to fire/hire anyone under her with absolutely no accountability to any system. Oh yeah, the police union is filing a motion against her right now. There is THAT.
Shrill Sarah has gotta be having some second thoughts. Maybe that’s why she won’t do interviews?
And then she’ll have that little problem of her (slut!) daughter’s pregnancy to reconcile with her Xtian Taliban associates. Personally, I have always believed that family situations should be dealt at home, but you know those Xtian Talibans… they think everyone’s business is THEIR business. But the biggest unforgiveable sin will be if she LOSES. Politicians who lose are like lepers. They are SOL and on their own.
Hopefully she’ll be able to find her bootstraps.
Damn that Joe Biden! Tipping his hat like that.
All those War Criminals being brought to justice?
Who would have ever guessed that justice could be metted out on those liars and cheats who duped the country into a false war?
Can George Bush pardon himself? He’s in deep doo-doo if what Biden allegedly is promising.
Wow Junior, harsh! (nice body check)
Red Vixen, great blog! Good info about the polling website. I always wonder how a campaign is doing during its course, this should help.
I loved your hockey player analogy. You are absolutely right Palin is definitely the “energy” player lets not forget that her nickname was ‘Barracuda’.
However I have to give you a five minute penalty for introducing a new topic by way of comments. The failure of Palin to sit for comprehensive interviews while she tours the Republican fundraising circut is a subject worthy of a whole new blog.
Anonyms –
Turn on the news. She’s agreed to an interview with Charlie Gibson. I guess she felt like playing a little softball. 😛
SMS
Anonyms,
Penalty taken! Speaking of Barracuda, I found this snippet interesting:
Recommendations: 42
http://dailykos.com/
As noted in yesterday’s Midday Open Thread:
The ladies of Heart have contacted the McCain/Palin campaign and asked them to immediately cease and desist from using their song “Barracuda.”
Unfortunately for the Wilson sisters, “as the song is licensed for public performance under a blanket fee,” and since the McCain campaign paid those fees to use the song, there is nothing Heart can do about its use. But there is a bright side to this story. Roger Fisher, the band’s former guitarist and co-writer of the song said that:
…he strongly endorsed the Democratic ticket, and would donate a portion of royalties he receives from the Republicans’ airing of “Barracuda” to the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama.
“With my contribution to Obama’s campaign, the Republicans are now supporting Obama,” he said.
Barracuda
So this aint the end –
I saw you again today
I had to turn my heart away
Smiled like the sun –
Kisses for real
And tales – it never fails!
You lying so low in the weeds
I bet you gonna ambush me
Youd have me down down down down on my knees
Now wouldnt you, barracuda?
Back over time we were all
Trying for free
You met the porpoise and me
No right no wrong, selling a song-
A name, whisper game.
If the real thing dont do the trick
You better make up something quick
You gonna burn burn burn burn it to the wick
Ooooooh, barracuda?
Sell me sell you the porpoise said
Dive down deep down to save my head
You…i think you got the blues too.
All that night and all the next
Swam without looking back
Made for the western pools – silly fools!
If the real thing dont do the trick
No, you better make up something quick
You gonna burn burn burn burn it to the wick
Ooooooohhhh, barra barracuda.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh.
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/h/heart/barracuda_20064763.html
I just read that a portion of the royalties paid for that song by the RNC will now be donated to Obama in protest of Palin/McCain using the song. The band can’t order a cease and desist because they share the rights to it.
SMS
If the real thing dont do the trick
No, you better make up something quick
You gonna burn burn burn burn it to the wick
Ooooooohhhh, barra barracuda.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh
Oh yes! thanks no_vaseline for the lyrics of Ms. Palin’s debut.
Sarah, you think we could post a clip of that and hit it often to donate directly to Obama from the OJ?
That would be a nice blowback for the Palin/mccain movement.
Red –
Sure, if we paid royalties. We utilize the fair-use exception!
SMS
“I’m curious how long she’ll be able to evade the media before the public decides this is unacceptable.”
“The failure of Palin to sit for comprehensive interviews while she tours the Republican fundraising circuit is a subject worthy of a whole new blog.”
Funny thing – both of those statements could have easily applied to Hillary. For a long, long time she avoided interviews, while sucking up the dem contributions – don’t cha recall?
junior –
OK, but we know who she is. We didn’t really know Sarah Palin before she was catapulted.
SMS
Sarah,
What happens if we just use the youtube version?
Will someone pay the tab? (mccain)
Red,
I do not believe that Art would allow that – the contribution link to Obama/Biden thing.
Unless, of course, it was made available on an equal basis to McCain/Palin and Barr/whoever.
Red –
Nope, sorry.
SMS
23:
I think you’ve confused Hilly with W.
Not to kick a guy on the way out, but he hated reporters.
McCain 50 to 46 Obama, this mornings Gallop poll results…and they have been a little left biased in the past. Is this one..? who knows.
Carl,
The polling thing always is a wild card. It reminds me of weather reports – you can trust them a bit, but until the day plays out, you’ll never be sure if it was an accurate report or not.
The democrats are so used to losing, it is hard to imagine a big win from them.
Intrade has the line at Obama 55, McCain 45.
I have offered 3:2 Obama/McCain to anyone I know (taking the worst of of by about 15%) and I can’t get anyone to book any action.
Chickens.
I got that backwords.
Obama – 2
McCain – 3
No-Vaseline,
So say each party bets $100.00.
The elections are held and the results are in. Then what? Some of us don’t have a lot of experience with bookies and spreads, so maybe you could help with the details there? 😉
Also Intrade is predicting and Obama win by ten points?