“Republican and Tustin Councilman Jerry Amante has announced his candidacy for the 70th District of the California State Assembly,” according to the O.C. Register.
I don’t think this guy has a chance. Just look at the 70th District map, which is posted below. Tustin is just a sliver of this big district. Someone from Irvine would have a much better shot at this seat…and sure enough Irvine Councilman Dr. Steven Choi is also running to replace Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Choi’s campaign committee has already raised $29,125, according to the O.C. Register.
DeVore is moving on to run against U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer – but if Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger jumps into that race I suspect DeVore will not get past the primary.
But never mind the Republicans, what about the Democrats?
The Democrats have run a guy named Michael Glover a couple of times. But it they really want to pick up this seat they need to run Irvine Councilman Larry Agran or Councilwoman Beth Krom (pictured below). The latter would have a solid advantage if several men were running and she was the only woman candidate.
None of the third parties ran a candidate for this seat last time around, according to Smart Voter.
“Republican State Senator Mimi Walters has been tapped as a co-chair of the Amante campaign,” according to the O.C. Register. You know what that means – he will be the anti-Mexican candidate. That gives the Democrats a real shot at picking up this seat. I doubt the voters who keep electing Democrats in Irvine will want to vote for Amante. And Choi would not prevail over Krom or Agran.
Imagine if this seat goes to the Democrats in 2010, and they also pick up the 68th A.D. with Costa Mesa Councilwoman Katrina Foley as their candidate? They would easily hang on to the 69th A.D. too. Just like that they could own three of the O.C. Assembly Districts…but can DPOC Chair Frank Barbaro pull this off? I doubt it.
Agran and Krom bungled the so-called “Great Park” in Irvine, at the former El Toro base. That would certainly be dug out in the race.
On the Republican side, I don’t think Arnold would be doing all that well in the primaries. He is not anti-tax enough for the hard-core Republicans. He only managed to become governor because he hadn’t go through a Republican primary.
Joe,
It is true that the Great Park has been more of a “Great Pork,” but didn’t Krom and Agran just get reelected despite that?
http://www.smartvoter.org/2008/11/04/ca/or/race/5102/
Krom was the top vote-getter, with 19.5% of the vote, compared to Choi who got 15.3% Agran came in third with 14.9% Six other candidates lost.
It is true that Schwarzenegger has not done a great job, but he remains a celebrity and his moderate views give him a big advantage over DeVore. However, Schwarzenegger won’t run unless Boxer retires. I doubt he would take her on if she runs for reelection. Now if Feinstein retires, that would be another matter. Or she may run for Governor herself.