Where’s Waldo? Where in the world is Osama bin Laden? Geographers at UCLA think they may have done what the CIA, Army, FBI and other special operatives have not been able to do over the last 7 years. They are betting that they have found the elusive international criminal, Osama bin Laden, who is likely in one of three large compounds in Parachinar town in Pakistan’s Kurram Agency. Report from the Times of India.
In a new study published on Monday, the geographers report that simple facts, publicly available satellite imagery and fundamental principles of geography place bin Laden in one of these buildings.
“If he’s still alive, he honestly could be sitting there right now,” says Thomas Gillespie, the study’s lead author and an associate professor of geography at UCLA. “It is still the safest tribal area and city in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwest Pakistan and one of the only tribal areas that the US has not bombed with its unmanned Predators.”
(Even as Gillespie said this, US drones conducted their first ever Predator strike in Kurram Agency on Monday killing 30, and possibly lending some credence to the theory. The researchers advocate that the US first investigate — but not bomb — the three buildings.)
But how did they zero in on just three compounds from the thousands of structures in Parachinar? The team came up with a short list of the criteria that bin Laden would need for housing, based on well-known information about him, including his height (between 6’4″ and 6’6″, depending on the source), his medical condition (apparently in need of regular dialysis and, therefore, electricity to run the machine) and several basic assumptions, such as a need for security, protection, privacy and overhead cover to shield him from being spotted by planes, helicopters and satellites.
So they looked for buildings that could house someone taller than 6’4″ and were surrounded by walls more than 9 feet tall (both as judged by mid-afternoon shadows depicted on the satellite imagery), and that had more than three rooms, space separating them from nearby structures, electricity and a thick tree canopy.
Only three structures fit the criteria.
Using publicly available satellite imagery and common principals of geography used to predict wildlife distribution, the UCLA team have drawn their conclusions and are willing to share the information with justice officials. Go Bruins!
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