For more than three decades before 2008, no Democrat Presidential candidate had ever won a majority of the electorate. In part, that was because such a large part of the electorate has always favored a limited role of government. This year, 58% of Americans said they favor smaller government and fewer services. Among whites, 71 % of men and 56 % of women favor fewer services and smaller government. Obama managed to pull in 41% of the white male vote in 2008, mainly because of the financial meltdown in the months leading up to the November vote.
It was only after the economic recession in full blossom that Obama went above the magic number of 38% of the white male vote. And according to Gallup tracking, at that same time he got his first clear majority among all registered voters.Coincidence? I don’t think so. His percentage of the female vote has remained steady. These are smaller government, less services, moderate swing voters who were willing to give the Democrat President the time and the opportunity to show he cared about their interests.
He hasn’t.
Since Obama took office, the margin between those favoring smaller government and larger government has moved from 5 to 20 points and 63% of Independents and 70% of Republicans now say more government is in fact a threat to citizens rights. In February, support for Democrats among the moderate swing vote dropped to three points under what it was in 1994. These Springsteen voters have given Obama the time and the benefit of the doubt, and now they are leaving. In droves. And they are taking their smaller government, moderate, middle of the road voices to the other side. They think government is broken and needs to do less to interfere in peoples lives, because it does it badly.
More like LBJ’s than FDR’s, Obama-style liberalism favors benefits over relief, a safety net over direct job programs, health care and environmental reform over financial reform and a stimulus package that has focused more on social service jobs — health care work, teaching and the like — than on the areas where a majority of job losses occurred: construction, manufacturing and related sectors.
The Year of the Angry White Male
Branding voters who voted their interests in 1994 as merely “angry” was poor politics for the Democrat party. It kept those swing voters away for more than a decade. The Republicans toyed with repeating that mistake against Democrats on the war or with George W Bush, but they never quite reached the pique of arrogance at branding a whole group. Now you’ve got bank bailouts for the rich folks, healthcare bailouts for the poor under him, and a big fat bill for his middle class support. Lots of cost. Little gain.
Today, 70% of voters are angry with the policies of the federal government. 48% are very angry. 55% favor repealing the recently signed Health Insurance Reform. A majority feel prescription drugs will go up, and costs will keep rising. And they’re right. Government can do nothing about “costs”. Only spending. That’s the voices of these moderate swing voters who are leaving the Democrat Party.
Now, I can hear some of the voices out there, saying “Good riddance!”
Hey Vern!
But, what we are left looking at is a Democrat Party that is less moderate, less responsive to the American people as a whole, and wholly unsuited to lead the nation. 61% of Americans think its better for the economy if the government stays out of the housing market and 49% think the economy is getting worse, while 26% think its getting better. That’s the same number who think the country is headed in the right direction. And a new Rasmussen Report finds only 35% of America thinks we’re safer today than before 9-11. That’s its lowest point since Obama took office.
So we should be concentrating on the economy, creating jobs, and spending more time making America safer. But we aren’t. We’re concentrating on creating more spending, 18,000 more IRS agents, 111 more bureaucracies, 30 million more government dependents, teaching children to stay on the parents health care bill years longer, and generally creating a bigger government to serve smaller citizens.
It’s gonna be a long summer.
*Update Approval/Disapproval Widening Again
Thank you for that, Concern Troll.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=concern+troll
Definition #4
Concern Troll —
A phrase used by the progressive netroots whenever someone questions the effectiveness of their activism, or notices that they are acting like fools, and discrediting their causes by incredibly silly gestures.
I use it simply to mean someone who’s giving the other side unwanted advice on how they could supposedly be more effective. Could be left or right.
By the way, the GOP sure is known for its “big tent” right now! LOL, NOT!
As far as your little poll tracker… Let’s both refrain from jumping up and down any time we see a poll we like. I’m going to watch patiently over the summer and fall as folks see the benefits this reform brings to their lives.
April.
May.
June.
July.
August.
September.
October.
Know what I mean?
As for Republicans, that may be true. I haven’t looked into that. THE POINT IS, they’re leaving the Democrats. Now, you may be able to comfort yourself and say they’ll come back in November. We shall see…
Care to make a bet? Art’s already backing out of his we made almost a year ago. I’m willing to make a prediction on the outcome if you are. The wager has to be humiliating.
Well, it wouldn’t be a very dramatic bet, because I do expect us to lose SOME seats – that just happens historically. I expect the losses to be minimal and us to retain majorities in both houses… and the health bill to be popular and be improved upon. Is there a way to make a bet out of that?
To see how this necessary proposed Healthcare reform of about $1 TRILLION Over TEN YEARS for about 32-45 million uninsured US Citizens and Legal residents, and about $118 Billion in Savings per the independent CBO office compares to prior spending, please consider the following:
ONE: $34 Trillion
BUSH Administration and REPUBLICAN controlled Congress readily added about $34 TRILLION to our True and Long-Term National Debt (from 2000-2006) from $20 Trillion to about $53 Trillion (our Total annual Economy is usually around $12-13 Trillion).
See the GAO annual report to the US Congress. (see page 20)
http://www.gao.gov/cghome/d08446cg.pdf
TWO: $1.2 Trillion
$1.2 TRILLION past give-away to Drug industry
There was a give-away to the very profitable Drug companies starting in Nov 2003 (which they originally claimed would cost less than $400 Billion to get the conservative vote, but 5-6 weeks later “discovered” their error and said it would be $545 Billion) to the present around the $1.2 Trillion mark (Govt was prohibited from negotiating PRICE & VOLUME discounts to facilitate this give-away.)
See the article that details the Bush White House estimated $1.2 Trillion over a decade for drug bill (which was an UNNECESSARY give away to the pharmaceutical industry – and which explicitly prohibited the govt from negotiating PRICE & VOLUME discounts).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9328-2005Feb8.html
THREE: $1.1 Trillion
BUSH Administration (President Bush & Secretary Paulson) together with the DEMOCRAT controlled Congress added about $1.1 TRILLION in Sept 2008 that primarily benefited the major banking institutions without freeing up credit (we hoped that they would lend; we hoped that they would report and be transparent as to the use of the funds, but HOPE is not a REQUIREMENT). THIS WAS DONE OVER THE SPAN OF ONE WEEK (originally BUSH Admin aimed for ONE WEEKEND).
FOUR: 18 Trillion
There was an additional infusion of about $18 TRILLION in Federal guarantees (which eventually become a realized liability and part of the National Debt) primarily started during the latter part of the BUSH administration…within the span of a couple of months.
This $1.1 Trillion in DIRECT subsidies and $18 Trillion in INDIRECT guarantees were beneficial primarily to wealthy individuals and institutions.
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/wealthofnations/archive/2009/09/22/tracking-the-19-trillion-bailout-funds.aspx
The BUSH ADMINISTRATION and REPUBLICAN Controlled Congress had the opportunity for at least 6 years to address health care reform…which they DID NOT and it GOT WORSE, and it will continue to get worse.
But, Now when the OBAMA administration is trying to provide Healthcare for 32-45 million uninsured US Citizens and Legal Residents with a price tag of about $1 TRILLION OVER 10 YEARS
(NOT over a WEEKEND;
NOT over a couple of months; and
NOT just for the primary benefit of a few wealthy individuals); and
which will result in INCREASED Healthcare, and
INCREASED SAVINGS over the LONG RUN, NOW you have segments opposed, who in the BEST case scenario are opposed because they think this is not necessary even though the facts don’t support their view; or in the WORST case scenario who seem more intent on scoring POLITICAL Points and acting on narrow interests again in this situation at our peril.
FIVE: $3.6 Trillion Iraq War estimates (war of “choice”) – not counting the Afghanistan war (a necessary war)
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/04/stiglitz200804
Close to $1 Trillion Current stats for 2010:
http://usliberals.about.com/od/homelandsecurit1/a/IraqNumbers.htm
And currently not only do we have uninsured Americans:
We also have insurance companies rationing healthcare; and
Increasing premiums without control e.g. 39% increase by Anthem in California; and
Contrary to “popular“ belief we do NOT have the best healthcare in the world e.g. there are about 44 countries with lower levels of infant mortality rates.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2091rank.html
And I believe that it is because of the increased BABY BOOMERS, who will NEED Care, Who will NEED it to be Affordable, and because our EVER INCREASING Un-restrained healthcare costs, and because these unrestrained healthcare costs make our manufacturers less competitive that we will need to implement Healthcare Reform.
(TACTICS to distract: The argument that ALL ILLEGALS will receive preventative healthcare is a red-herring; or that amnesty will translate to immediate preventative health for new LEGAL residents is also a distraction because legal residents HAVE TO WAIT at least FIVE years before qualifying for many benefits that are only available to US CITIZENS or longer term Legal Residents; and finally the argument that amnesty will translate to immediate voters is also a fallacy because most all Legal Residents must wait about 5 YEARS before they can qualify for applying for US CITIZENSHIP, and even then there is a long waiting period for processing and finalizing.)
My question is where were this so called “fiscal conservatives” when the majority of these enormous deficits where ADDED UNDER under their watch:
* $34 Trillion added to National Debt;
* $1.2 Trillion give-away to drug industry;
* $1.1 Trillion (direct bail-out);
* $18 Trillion (indirect bail-out);
* $3.6 Trillion (estimated cost of “war of choice” in Iraq);
President Obama inherits the worst recession (close to a depression) and two wars (Afghanistan about 8 1/2 years long; Iraq 7 years); with unchecked and ever increasing health care costs with at least 32 million uninsured Americans; and his solution is expected to cost $1.1 Trillion over 10 YEARS with expected SAVINGS, and expected to cover at least 32 million Americans.
It is proper to be angry because of the past fiscal “malfeasance”, but rather than inflaming the passions and attacking or obstructing a President in his first year of office to score political points, I would hope (against hope) that people are engaged and offering solutions that are in the best interest of our nation for the long term.
Francisco Barragan (my personal opinions, not those of any group)
Orange County
Professional Profile:
http://www.linkedin.com/in/franciscobarragancpacia
You should blog here, Francisco. We need another voice of reason.
Yes please join in.
Vern Nelson & Jim Benson:
Thanks for the “vote of confidence”!
I am just adding my 2 cents, hoping to keep the debate CIVIL and focused on the ISSUES, and DISCOURAGING the hate and fear-mongering that you sometimes see.
Francisco “Paco” Barragan
Yes Francsico, a great voice of reason. And that part about the new healthcare bill resulting in “INCREASED SAVINGS over the LONG RUN” is the most reasonable part of all. I find it hilarious that you take great pains to present facts and figures when you’re attacking the prior Republican administration, but you resort to the same talking points (i.e. lies) from the Democrats when you claim wrongly that Obamacare will reduce the deficit over time – ignoring the annual Medicare fix, the huge tax increases on the middle class, and the most basic tenet that any estimate from the government on an entitlement program is underestimated so badly that it should be accompanied by a laugh track. Please, continue to rely on the CBO’s numbers in response because those are based on realistic scenarios, aren’t they?
I would have more respect for you Obama Kool-Aid drinkers if you would at least admit that the health care bill will cost us untold trillions of dollars, but you believe that sacrificing our children’s futures is worth it for universal health care.