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2011 Predictions Score Card

I am working on some predictions for 2012. A first step is for me to review my January 1, 2011 predictions for the 2011 year and see how I did. Here is that review. Overall, I don’t think I did too bad.

Predictions that proved correct

Regardless of election outcomes, Congress will continue to be a 100% partisan reality with continuing low public esteem. (Public opinion of Congress got worse)

The Register will survive the year, but barely. (Have you seen how thin this paper is now?)

President Obama’s popularity within the U.S. will continue to decline as “yes we can” becomes “well I thought we could”. (Current polls show him unlikely to be re-elected in 2012)

California State Government will cut services and increase taxes to patch together another 1 year budget, with heavy use of accounting tricks and other gimmicks. (Tax increases in 2011 were minimal, but the Governor is pushing for a larger increase in 2012 and some independent initiatives may appear on the November, 2012 ballot to increase various taxes)

Predictions that proved partially correct (and partially wrong)

Iran will implode but the outcome may not be much better. (Civil unrest and use of military force to keep the current regime in power occurred in 2011)

General Motors will struggle to survive, and may not make it. (So far it is making it, but the touted Chevy Volt electric vehicle is not selling)

Orange County legislators sent to Sacramento will continue to be largely ineffective and the voters will again be duped into approving initiatives designed to punish legislators, government employees or some other “special interests”. (Our staet legislators look pretty ineffective to me; petitions are being circulated to put numerous initiatives on the November, 2012 ballot, including turning the full time Legislature into a part time Legislature)

At the County level, Tom Daly will lose whatever office he runs for; the current County CEO will announce his retirement which will be but a part of a brain drain of experienced people within county government; Chris Street will be found liable in the lawsuit challenging his administration of the Fruehauf bankruptcy and liquidation; Mike Carona will escape having to serve jail time and Board of Supervisors efforts to undo previously granted county employee retirement benefits will continue to be mired in litigation. (Daly was re-elected to the Clerk-Recorder position; County CEO Mauck remains in place but was battered by a scathing audit that found he handed out big raises to his favorites and other abuses and the Supervisors stripped him of some of his authority as a result– will he retire in 2012?; the County brain drain continued with the Health Care Agency Director and Clerk of the Board announcing their retirement, and the elected Auditor-Controller announcing his resignation to take a better paying job in Sonoma County; Chris Steet lost his court battles on the Fruehauf matter; Mike Carona did not escape serving jail time and is reported to be jailed in a federal prison in Colorado; the County Supervisors lost the lawsuit it launched to try and undo the enhanced retirement benefits granted to Sheriff’s Deputies, and while the retiree lawsuit regarding health benefit costs remains in Federal Court, a State Supreme Court decision in September strengthened the retiree’s case).

Current Congressional effort to enact immigration reform with an amnesty provision will fail and instead an anti-immigrant public attitude will gain steam due to economic and terrorist issues. (Congress did not enact reform, but public attitudes about immigration appear pretty much the same – a mixed bag)

Tragedy will impact the USA in the form of one or more terrorist acts and a major natural disaster. (The country did not experience a major terrorist attack but did experience an earthquake that damaged the Washington Monument and other structures, major damaging tornados in the south and midwest, floods in the northeast and the Dakotas, and a devastating heat wave and draught n the Texas and Oklahoma area).

Memorable Words of 2011

There are some things about 2011 that I will remember for a long time. Some of those things are what are said or written and are overused clichés; some are attempts to put positive spins on less than positive words and deeds; and some prove to actually have been someone shooting themselves in the foot. Here are a few of my fond memories of words spoken or written during 2011 —

“Breaking News” – These two words used to mean that something big was happening and was about to be reported on the TV or radio. Now they mean that most anything is happening and is about to be reported on the TV or radio.

“Oops” – Reaction of Texas Governor Rick Perry during a Republican Presidential debate when he could not remember the names of the three federal agencies he had said he would eliminate if elected President.

“For 10 years, we’ve had budget gimmicks and tricks that pushed us deep into debt. We must now return California to fiscal responsibility and get our state on the road to economic recovery and job growth.” – Words of California’s newly elected Governor Jerry Brown as he released his proposed FY 2011-2012 state budget in January. The budget he eventually signed into law is generally viewed as containing gimmicks and tricks while kicking the can down the road again.

“The budget is balanced without the use of one time reserves.——Moreover, the recommended budget will add an additional $ 19 million to the County’s general fund reserves over the next fiscal year.” – Boastful comments by Orange County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Campbell in his June 17 newsletter when many counties, cities and the State itself were in much more desperate budget straits than Orange County apparently was. In an economic and budget crisis atmosphere in Sacramento, this boast emanating from a conservative Republican county got the attention of Democrats who promptly removed $ 48 million of state revenue from the state FY 11-12 budget that would have come to the County of Orange. Panicked Supervisors figured they could recoup this loss and more by diverting approximately $ 75 million in property taxes to the county rather than allocating it to public schools and community colleges. As the year closes state officials are saying the county cannot do this; the Supervisors have ordered the elected County Auditor-Controller, David Sundstrom, to make that transfer; Sundstrom has just accepted a better paying job with the County of Sonoma; and the Orange County Superintendent of Schools is aghast at the potential impact of the Supervisors’ budget maneuver on public education. To be continued.

“I do” – The wedding vow stated by Kim Kardashian (DBA Kim Kardashian Inc.) in her highly publicized multi-million dollar wedding in August to Kristopher Humphries, followed by news 6 weeks later that the marriage was over and divorce or annulment proceedings were to follow.

“You could suffer a stroke, heart attack and death” – This and other warnings permeate TV advertisements for medications, while the screen shows a flittering butterfly, or people happily riding bicycles, playing with their children or grandchildren, an older couple sitting in bathtubs in the woods, and other generally delightfully happy activities with smiling faces that are oblivious to what is being said or contained in the fine print in similar advertisements in newspapers and magazines.

And my favorite one this year – “Imprudence, however, is not unconstitutional” – Words of the California Court of Appeals in rejecting an appeal of the Orange County Board of Supervisors in its lawsuit attempt to overturn the 2001 decision of the Board of Supervisors to grant enhanced and retroactive retirement benefits to Sheriff’s Deputies based upon the apparently faulty legal theory that the Board’s action violated the State Constitution. The Supervisors next appealed to the State Supreme Court, but that Court declined to hear the case. The result was that the Court of Appeals decision stands; the Supervisors lost a battle they started; and the Supervisors incurred legal costs, including reimbursing the legal costs of those they sued, that totaled over $ 4 million according to published media reports. The taxpayers paid for that cost.