"Ohhhh, Hiram Johnson -- what have you done?"
We have eleven mostly interesting ballot propositions in store in November. The first poll on the whole batch, so far as I am aware, just came out — and it gives us an idea of where we’re starting from. I’m just taking this data directly from Scott Lay’s “The Nooner”; as it’s just a tabulation of poll results I believe that it is fair game.
These are the results of an online polls conducted by the California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. The Nooner has a link to the crosstabs here. I’ve color-coded the titles — green=yes, red=no, amber=unsure — to match Vern’s recommendations from an earlier post.
Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
Strongly Yes: 20.2%
Somewhat Yes: 17.3%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 23.6%
TOTAL YES: 56.2%
TOTAL NO: 39.2%
Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Strongly Yes: 7.9%
Somewhat Yes: 13.6%
Leaning Yes: 29.5%
Leaning No: 20.0%
Somewhat No: 5.7%
Strongly No: 7.9%
TOTAL YES: 51.0%
TOTAL NO: 33.5%
Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 23.2%
Somewhat Yes: 18.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.6%
Leaning No: 10.3%
Somewhat No: 7.0%
Strongly No: 11.6%
TOTAL YES: 60.0%
TOTAL NO: 28.9%
Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 16.5%
Somewhat Yes: 18.7%
Leaning Yes: 24.0%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 6.1%
Strongly No: 11.9%
TOTAL YES: 59.3%
TOTAL NO: 28.7%
Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 11.8%
Leaning Yes: 14.1%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 7.1%
Strongly No: 28.9%
TOTAL YES: 45.5%
TOTAL NO: 46.7%
Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 49.3%
Somewhat Yes: 20.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 3.6%
Somewhat No: 1.8%
Strongly No: 1.0%
TOTAL YES: 88.2%
TOTAL NO: 6.4%
Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 23.1%
Somewhat Yes: 23.4%
Leaning Yes: 25.3%
Leaning No: 7.3%
Somewhat No: 4.5%
Strongly No: 7.2%
TOTAL YES: 71.7%
TOTAL NO: 19.0%
Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 27.2%
Somewhat Yes: 19.6%
Leaning Yes: 18.1%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 7.6%
Strongly No: 6.2%
TOTAL YES: 64.9%
TOTAL NO: 23.9%
Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 7.2%
Somewhat Yes: 10.5%
Leaning Yes: 17.3%
Leaning No: 12.1%
Somewhat No: 14.0%
Strongly No: 28.1%
TOTAL YES: 35.0%
TOTAL NO: 54.2%
Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Strongly Yes: 18.4%
Somewhat Yes: 14.0%
Leaning Yes: 23.0%
Leaning No: 9.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 12.8%
TOTAL YES: 55.4%
TOTAL NO: 27.2%
Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum (to change current lines.)
Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 16.0%
Leaning Yes: 19.9%
Leaning No: 10.6%
Somewhat No: 4.2%
Strongly No: 6.8%
TOTAL YES: 55.7%
TOTAL NO: 21.5%
(Note: I am personally responsible for Vern’s non-endorsement of the very popular — suspiciously popular — Prop 35; I expect to write about that in the next week or two. Teaser: if it were actually about human trafficking, I’d support it, but it’s mostly not — and most of the non-lawyer proponents don’t get it.)
Before anyone gets despondent or gleeful about the negative numbers on Prop 32,let’s take a look at the last two times that similar initiatives were attempted.
Props 226 and 75 started in public polls (way ahead), and where they ended up (losing):
Here’s the data from Field Poll on both of those measures:
Prop 226 —
Initial Field: 72 Y/ 22 N/ 6 U
Final Field: 45 Y/ 47 N/ 8 U
Final Result: 47 Y/ 53 N
Prop 75 —
Initial Field: 57 Y/ 34 N / 9 U
Final Field: 40 Y / 50 N/ 10 U
Final Result: 47 Y / 53 N
It’s going to be a long uphill battle to defeat this deceptively written ballot measure which is designed to tilt the playing field even more forcefully towards corporations, banksters and ceonistas.