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I started looking through the Friday Feb. 9 update if Registrar of Voters’ online Candidate Filing Log over the weekend. (Only candidates residing in Orange County must appear in it, although others can choose to blow some dough on filing here, so in multi-county districts The OC Log will miss non-OC-resident candidates like LA County’s Jay Chen and Alan Lowenthal and San Diego County’s Rocky Chavez and God-knows whom in Chino Hills.)
I didn’t expect to find anything earth-shattering within it. Boy, was I wrong! What I found there reshaped by expectations for the CA-39 race (although I suppose that they could return to prior form, which is a prediction of Jay Chen vs. Shawn Nelson.) Ready? Here we go.
OC Deputy Attorney Karen Schatzle — who in 2016 ran against incumbent Superior Judge Scott Steiner after he had been found to have been having sex with law students in chambers, and who last summer sued Tony Rackauckas and the county for $5 million on a claim of employment retaliation for her defying the OCDA’s order not to run — is once again thinking outside of the box.
Schatzle took out the forms needed for nomination signatures for two races — AD-68, where I’ve long understood she planned to run, and CA-39. You can do that; nothing matters until you actually turn in your signatures and the other paperwork you need to swear in as a candidate. What’s new is that Schatzle has only returned them for the CA-39 race, which she did on February 7. Schatzle is not a member of any political party — that is, she is an “NPP.” That status makes it much harder for her to win a race where only one Democrat and one Republican are running. But that disadvantage may be reduced — or even reversed — in a race where five Republicans and seven Democrats appear likely to run.
As she presumably lives in AD-68, Schatzle would very likely be carpetbagging into CA-39 — I forget whether there’s a tiny overlap around Anaheim Hills, but I don’t think she lives there anyway — which is permissible for Congressional races. If she makes the top two runoff, she would presumably be adopted by voters favoring whichever party is excluded from it, along with the minority of independent voters who are actively antagonistic towards both parties. (She would become the first NPP in the California legislature — and thus national news. It would also put her on the shortlist for any “Third Way” campaign by some Mike Bloomberg, Mark Warner, or Jeff Flake type, which is one reason why I think that ambition will lead her to take this leap.)
Trying to look at this objectively (despite my preference for a Democrat generally and my support for Jay Chen in the race), this is a pretty brilliant gambit — and one that I’m bemused to say takes me entirely by surprise. If she can raise the funds to run — about which I do not know — she would presumably depict herself a determined and demonstrable “equality of opportunity” feminist and anti-sexual harassment crusader. The only woman with any hope at all in the Democratic field is Mai Khanh Tran, whose efforts have been relatively anemic ; the only woman in the Republican field is Young Kim, who is no kind of feminist at all.
Meanwhile, she now benefits from a likely clustercrash on both sides of the aisle, with both parties dividing up their share of the vote among five or more serious candidates. Theoretically, one could make a runoff with 8% of the vote in such a situation; realistically, unless the field is winnowed ahead of time or one or two candidates surge while the others fall, getting 15% of the vote seems likely to do the trick. As a prosecutor, feminist crusader, and the only woman in the race, reaching that threshold does not seem beyond Schatzle’s capability.
A big irony here is that if Democrats could just keep a candidate out of the AD-68 race — or, alternatively, put up five or so of them to divide their support — Schatzle would have had no strong reason to look for an alternative to that race and find CA-39. But it looks like only one Democrat, Michelle Duman, is running against incumbent Stephen Choi . As was demonstrated in 2016 when NPP Brian Chuchua (whose campaign I managed) had hoped to win with a coalition of Democrats, NPPs, Choi-hating Republicans, and Tom Tait Republicans until an unknown Democrat named Sean Panahi entered the race at almost the last moment — with one candidate from each party Democrats will vote for the “D” (and presumably Republicans for the “R”) even despite the almost certainty that their candidate will be utterly slaughtered in the general election. (Panahi — who seems like a nice guy, but still — was indeed slaughtered in that very conservative district.)
One might think that, with this development, some Democrats (and even Republicans) might start looking for a race where they won’t be crushed in a clustercrash. Sadly, that is not likely to happen: each of them seems to stubbornly cling to the belief that the best solution — even in the presence of an NPP who is a credible threat both to make the Top Two and to win it all — is for everyone besides them to leave the race.
Here is the current roster of people who have at least initiated the process of running in CA-39, based on the OC file and other candidates who have already made clear their plans to run. (Candidates who can afford the filing fee without signatures-in-lieu (in lieu of paying the full filing fee, that is) have no strong reason to collect and return such signatures, although it’s usually a good practice.) The names are grouped within party category but are otherwise in the order they would appear on the ballot. The underlined candidate names are the ones who I think are likely to take more at least 2% of the vote — although those other names will likely siphon off enough votes to push an outcome to the other side.
NPP: KAREN LEE SCHATZLE, filed signatures-in-lieu Feb. 7
DEMOCRATS:
SUZI PARK LEGGETT, filed signatures on Jan. 23
HERBERT LEE, filed signatures on Feb. 7
PHIL JANOWICZ, filed signatures on Feb 5
SAM JAMMAL, filed signatures on Feb. 7
NATHAN TROUTMAN, had not filed signatures as of Feb. 7
SOPHIA ALEXANDER, filed signatures on Feb. 7
GIL CISNEROS, has no financial need to file signatures
ANDY THORBURN, has no financial need to file signatures
MAI-KHANH TRAN, probably has no financial need to file signatures
JAY CHEN, does not need to file signatures in OC, just in LA County
REPUBLICANS:
JOHN J. CULLUM, filed signatures on Jan. 31
YOUNG KIM, filed signatures on Feb. 2
MARK GAOUETTE, had not filed signatures as of Feb. 7
ANDREW SAREGA, filed signatures on Feb. 7
STEVEN C. VARGAS, had not filed signatures as of Feb. 7
SHAWN NELSON, probably has no financial need to file signatures
BOB HUFF, does not need to file signatures in OC, just in LA County
So: that’s 6 serious Democrats out of 10 names, 5 serious Republicans out of 7 names, and 1 serious NPP who can cast a pox on both parties’ houses. At least everyone’s in equal amounts of pain — except perhaps for Schatzle.
I spoke to our sane Republican contributor Ryan Cantor about this story while I was writing it — and he doesn’t think that Schatzle can break through the field, where he thinks it will take 20-22% to qualify for the Top Two runoff. Maybe it will — if some candidates do leave the race, fold their tents midway, or have their tents blown away in a hurricane — but I think that it will take more like 15%-17%. Everyone’s going to have their own polls showing them doing well-enough that they shouldn’t be abandoned — even Sarega and Vargas, who can probably each lay claim to a cache of votes in, respectively La Mirada and (among Republicans and inattentive Latinos) Brea — so it wouldn’t even shock me if someone made the runoff with 12%.
If Schatzle makes the runoff, she starts out with whichever party got shut out of the race — which will figure that without party infrastructure behind her she’d be easier than the alternative to knock off in 2020 — PLUS a good bloc of female (and, yes, feminist) voters, PLUS a good block of law-and-order and anti-corruption voters. Yes, it seems insane to me that an NPP could win this seat — but at this point I’d make her co-favorite with Jay Chen and Shawn Nelson if she gets in — and Young Kim and Mai-Khanh Tran’s leaky campaigns just took on more water.
(Of course, I would have to change my analysis if two or three more Democrats got into the AD-68 race to split the vote that would otherwise go to Michelle Duman. Schatzle would still be a favorite against mush-mouthed Stephen Choi if she made the runoff there with the support of Democratic, independent, and female voters — and it would be a cheaper experiment for her to run. That would be the equivalent of Democrats taking half a seat in the legislature. Are we smart enough to take advantage of that? No, we are not — and even if we were, it’s getting late in the game. Maybe Sean Panahi will run again?)
There is a tiny overlap south of the 91. Right where Sidhu feeds his peacocks.
I think I saw that the other day. It was a beautiful example of local Anaheim color…
Vern. When tried to finger Lorri, did she resist?
PIG
STICK TO Yesina’s kids. Like Mother like daughter!
In one other comment this person tried to post last night, they said they were “part of the Lenore Albert wing of the Democrat Party.” Is there really such a thing, Greg?
I guess so. But it’s less of a “wing” and more of a protuberant wart.
Bob Huff will take this seat….
Would Huff survive #metoo?
Dr. D., Unless they have photos of Bob abusing his intern…..that will probably not be a problem.
Who’s “they”?
I would have sold a major internal organ to donate to Schatzle’s campaign for DA.
Well, sure — but *whose*?
*You guys are funny……remember that you have to maintain continuity in government. The truth is that Tony and Bob have to hang around to keep the home fires burning. You want the Hot Toddy and Schatzie to change the deck chair on the Titanic?
Government continuity can survive changes in regime. We don’t need to have any more home fires burning. The Titanic had more than one deck chair — and if it had had only one it would not have been possible to change it. I believe that that just about covers everything.
*but “you guys are funny.”
Dr. D., Do not mistake “overthrow” for “intentional corrections”. They are not the same…..and the “unintended consequences” can be a serious problem.
Meanwhile, those that you think will make a difference…..may in fact change their minds after they receive the proprietary phone calls….just saying.
Karen Lee Schatzle Rock’s
In a Perfect World,She Would be the O.C.D.A.hands down…well it’s not a Perfect World…and Orange County is living proof.
Your analysis is somewhat flawed.
It does not include Camilla Kuo Liou, Democrat from Walnut who filed signatures in LA County.
Councilman Sareaga might have a base in La Mirada, but it is completely outside of CD39.
The Secretary of State has not yet chosen a random alphabet for the June Primary. Nobody knows ballot order until that time.
As far as I can tell, Karen Schatzle has not yet opened a committee with the FEC. Candidates who don’t raise money are not likely to have resources to get a message out to voters. Starting this late is truly a handicap.
I’ve been watching this race for quite some time and I have, never, in any context within or beyond the Democratic Party, heard the name “Camila Kuo Liou.” As I think I’ve said, I’ve focused solely on the OC filings to this point, along with other figures who have appeared at events. (I’ll make a broader search this weekend to catch exactly this sort of straggler.)
While any candidate has the capacity to collect a few votes from people who like his or her name for gender or ethnic/racial (or aesthetic) reasons, or their ballot designation or geographical desirability as may be reflected in their candidate statement, and in a race like this those few votes may themselves end up being larger than the margin by which (someone else) wins or loses), she does not seem likely to win a medal in this competition.
Such a candidate will generally take a few votes that will have been taken from those with whom they share the most characteristics. In this case, that would be: “Democrat,” “Asian,” “female,” and “LA County resident.” So its a slight negative for Tran, Chen, the other Asian woman without visible support in the race, maybe Sarega, and to a smaller degree all other Democrats and women.
One way to win a race like this is to flood the field with candidates who can sap even a few tenths of a percent from other competitors. Luckily for us, those sorts of tricks often leave tracks. All I can say is that if and when I find out that some tricky candidate has been recruiting these sort of “vote sapping” fake competitors in the race, I plan to sharpen my cleats and jump straight onto their throat. This race is screwed up enough without that sort of crap.
Anyway: thank you for your calling this candidate to my attention, which if you’re a reporter you may come to regret having done, but I don’t think that I had missed anything that couldn’t wait until Monday or Tuesday.
Your candidate list also does not include Ted Rusk, registered Democrat who has opened a committee with the FEC to raise money and shared the stage at the Diamond Bar League of Women Voters candidate forum.
Also omitted is Cybil Camille Steed, Democrat. She has opened a committee with the FEC, paid a fee to the CA Democratic Party to seek endorsement, and spoke at the Pre-Endorsement Caucus for this district.
Both have taken action to campaign for this seat. While they might be placed in the category of minor candidates, in a race with 6 major and 4-6 minor contenders, a few hundred votes here and there might be enough to change the outcome of this election.
Steve Cox, another NPP, who has an open committee with the FEC, raised and spent a small amount of money in the 4th quarter, and was also a part of the DB/LWV forum.
I’d like to know which individuals and entities are supporting Leggett, Lee, Troutman, Alexander, Schatzle, Liou, Rusk, and Steed in their longshot bids.
Yeah, I forgot about Rusk and Cox, neither of whom is in any danger of having to find lodging in DC (although I did like what Cox had to say at the LWV event.) Steed seems to have made no impact among Democrats.
The focus here was to start with the OC ROV report for the district, add in the names that struck me as having even a prayer of success, and moving on from there. (In hindsight, I’d have added Cox to my analysis, as he’ll snap up some Berniecrat votes, and Rusk will grab some “Trump Democrat” votes. Who Steed will appeal to, I do not know. None of the three are as yet on the OCROV list, which explains their absence here.)
I too would like to know which individuals and entities are supporting Leggett, Lee, Troutman, Alexander, Schatzle, Liou, Rusk, and Steed in their “longshot bids”!
You seem to be intensely interested in this race and its coverage in the blogs; presuming that you’re not part of any campaign, you’re invited to talk to Vern about our giving you a forum. (Ideally it would not be under the name of a Federalist.) Or: do the research, note your sources, and put it into comments. (Of course, the questions you raise are not clearly ones of fact, “support” coming in many forms which are traceable to varying degrees. But this is certainly one of the more intriguing storylines in the race right now.)
Where you and I disagree is specifically in Schatzle’s ability to raise money. Maybe she has little capacity, in which case she won’t be a factor. I think that, like many lawyers far more active in the professional network than am I, she probably has quite a bit of capacity — enhanced both by her being a prosecutor and by her having taken on Judge Steiner, who had richly earned the challenge. And she seems to me to have a “pathway to victory” pitch that, so far as I can tell, all of the longshots lack Therefore, I would classify her with the “candidates with a real chance,” rather than with what you call the “longshots.” If this deeply disturbs you, that’s OK — such disagreement is part of the sport of following a race.