.
.
.
MIDNIGHT – I lied. I didn’t go to bed. I’d noticed that, in CA-48, Harley Rouda had momentum. It was not an illusion. He has passed up Scott Baugh and is now nipping at Keirstead’s heels, just 0.1% behind him … and there are still precincts left to report. I know how hard his people were working these past couple weeks. This could very well turn into a Dana vs. Harley race. But I also bet these two very ambitious rich Democrats are gonna want a RECOUNT. (As I finally REALLY go to bed at 12:30 am, Harley has passed Hans and is in second place! ONE precinct is still out.)
11:30 – Well, Tim Shaw has made a stag-like leap, and with almost all precincts reporting, it looks like the Supe race will be between him and Doug Chaffee – and I would support Tim in that case. Joe Kerr looks too far back now to catch up.
One bit of good news for Democrats is, as it turns out, we didn’t get “locked out” in any of the Congressional races, although the folks who look like they’ll be our candidates in the fall were not the first choices of many of us – Gil Cisneros up against Young Kim in the 39th; Hans Keirstead up against Dana in the 48th; Mike Levin up against Diane Harkey in the 49th (although that’s close and could change overnight) … and Katie Porter looks like Mimi Walters’ opponent. Cisneros, Porter, Keirstead, Levin – we must learn to love them.
I’m going to bed now, see you in the morning!
11 pm… What’s new? Wow, the race between SQS and that Coronado lady is a lot closer than I thought – I thought this was gonna be a cakewalk for Sharon! And I think I can call two pieces of bad news (in most of our opinion) – Irvine said no to the Veterans Cemetery (on the Strawberry Fields at least – is Agran really still that powerful there?) and citizens of State Senate District 29 can go back to calling Ling Ling Chang their senator. GROSS. (Oh well, Josh 2020!) In bad statewide news, sneaky Charter School DINO Marshall Tuck looks like he’s gonna be California’s Superintendent of Public Instruction. Isn’t that an oxymoron or something, or whatever it is when Scott Pruitt runs the EPA? [Update – I didnt’ realize but Thurmond and Tuck still go to the November runoff, since Tuck didn’t break 50%. VERY IMPORTANT in November!]
10:30… Oh shit – Doug Chaffee just (slightly) overtook BOTH SHAW AND KERR – if things stay like that, we could have a Dem on Dem runoff for Supervisor! Another race that’s neck and neck, statewide, is who will get to be Dianne Feinstein’s opponent in the fall – Kevin De Leon or a Republican named James Bradley? If Bradley’s on the ballot, along with Cox for Governor… that’d be good news for Republican turnout in the fall and bad news for Dems. (Update – it’s Kevin.) Meanwhile what’s going on with Irvine Measure B for the Vets Cemetery? It continues to trail at almost the same rate as the Josh recall is succeeding. Dan C must be doing backflips at this point, between Levin, Keirstead, and B failing – I sure hope some of these things reverse!
10 pm… Kerr, Shaw, and Chaffee remain essentially tied for 4th District Supe. In the 48th, Scott Baugh is inching up to the 2nd place Keirstead, scaring us all over the prospect of a R-on-R general (which by the way won’t happen in the 39th or 49th.) Still waiting and hoping for a Rouda surge and an Applegate surge, and a rash of anti-recall votes!
9:08. The Governor race has been called – no more Villar, no Travis, no Chiang. It’s gonna be a summer/fall of Newsom vs Cox. That’s not exciting, at all.
************
8:30. We’re impatient so we look at the early early votes, with zero precincts still reporting, and of course that skews “conservative” and apparently “corporate Dem.” Right now CA-49 is Harkey & Levin, CA-48 is Rohrabacher & Keirstead (barely over Baugh), and CA-39 is Young Kim & Cisneros. The Josh recall is passing by 62%. Irvine’s Measure B is barely ahead. Katie Porter is looking like Mimi’s opponent. But … like I said. Wait a little while.
************
6:25 – Three of our OC congressional districts are all over the national news you know – north OC’s CA-39, south OC’s CA-49, and the coastal CA-48. The nation is on tenterhooks – are we gonna be able to even get a Democrat (or knock-on-wood TWO Democrats) into these runoffs, to help the Dems finally take the majority in Washington and be able to stand up to Donald Trump?
So, these are the races we’ll be looking at most obsessively as the night wears on. In 39, will Gil Cisneros and/or Andy Thorburn make it? In 48, will it be Harley? Hans? Or five more months of Dana-vs-Scott bashing? And in 49, Doug Applegate? Or are those recent polls Mike Levin’s been touting actually dependable?
But there’s more we’ll be checking on – is this crazy recall of Josh Newman going to succeed? Are we gonna be stuck again with Ling-Ling “Underpants” Chang?
And who’s gonna be running against Gavin Newsom for governor? We’ve been cheering on John Chiang, but it’ll probably be either the unexciting Republican Cox or the unexciting Democrat Villaraigosa. Democrats are starting to think it’ll be good for us to not have a Republican at the top of the ticket, as it should help us downticket.
For Orange County DA – will Tony Rackauckas get his 50% plus 1, and be on his way into his third decade of misrule? Or will we enjoy a summer and fall of crazy Spitzer showmanship against him? (Of course we’re pulling for Murdock, no doubt quixotically.)
And which Democrat will CA-45 choose to go after Lyin’ Mimi Walters? Which two eager pols will advance to the 4th district Supervisor runoff? Will Irvine (and the rest of us) get a Veterans Cemetery? So much excitement! Check in here every now and then, because Vern, Greg, and your other OJ friends will be updating obsessively.
ALSO – readers, let us know what you’re seeing out there!
NOTE – most recent updates will be at the top. 6:25 pm.
The five polling stations I’ve heard about today and/or looked in on all seem quiet, normal. I’m sure there’s some hiccup somewhere – there always is, but not anywhere I’ve been.
Nice return per dollar spent for Thornburn.
At some point Ryan, I will say what I really think about thorburn. I expect THAT will piss Greg off. But for now, all I will say is that so far as I know, Thorburn never attacked his chief rival’s wife. That sort of low blow crosses a bottom feeder line. There are other candidates i cannot say that about.
Nice job electing Ling-Ling, Ryan. You might be able to get rid of her in twelve years.
I didn’t elect her, Greg. This is why your team got absolutely obliterated last night.
Josh should have run into the recall, not away from it. Instead of being a battle over his personality and ability to represent the district, it turned into a name calling contest. He was never going to get the numbers with that strategy. That many rabbid voters from the left do not exist.
With that in mind, your camp failed to run a viable candidate to replace Josh.
Democrats were handed the perfect storm of opportunity by Republicans, who chose to rerun Ling-Ling. Rather than so the smart thing and play to the middle, your camp lashed out and ran left.
You couldn’t get a more significant ass kicking than what you saw last night. It’s your fault, not mine. I told you it was coming.
What a hoot. We should feel guilty because Josh paid a penalty for slavish loyalty to the Sacto machine? It’s very clear to me that Brown & Co. sacrificed Josh on the altar of the Gas Tax. They’re the ones that elected Ling-Ling.
I voted for Whitaker.
^^^ stated much clearer than my original comment. Spot on.
I don’t expect you to feel any human emotions at all, Zenger.
As someone who commutes on the 57/60 — beyond your home beach, I understand, and therefore unimportant to you — I’m glad that he had the courage to do what he did. It may be the last appropriation our area sees for a while. And that’s how you like it — right?
And you got Ling-Ling — as predicted. What a genius you are. Enjoy her for the many years she’ll be representing you.
Stop being stupid. I like you less stupid.
I get that you’re not in the best place this afternoon.
I’ll forgive your unkindness.
I personally aim to vote for the most unqualified persons available. In selecting my preferred candidates, I try to find someone who doesn’t even have basic job requirements. Therefore, I wholeheartedly support Lenore Albert for District Attorney. I also really wish the Hillside Strangler were running for Sherriff, or perhaps that nice Manson fellow who just croaked. Who needs all these “qualifications” anyway?
At this point, I don’t know what happened in any other races: my world is the 39th CD. What I do know is Phil Janowicz, one of the most honorable men I’ve met in this crazy race, was hanging with Gil Cisneros, looking to make sure that a certain volunteer (me) got home safe tonight. I hope Thorburn’s and Tran’s people looked after their own too, the way these guys looked after me. You guys gave so much in this to the fight. Come join us, and be welcome because some of you really are amazing.
Young Kim: be warned. I have better women and men on my side than you do. I do not know how to call them forth, but if they come out for us, you and Trump have no future.
I hear Coto Joe is hosting a fundraiser barbecue at his home in Placentia this Saturday. Anybody get the invite?
The Republican Party’s
Water Carriers Young Kim & Ling Ling Chang…
“Cisneros, Porter, Keirstead, Levin – we must learn to love them.”
Cisneros is pretty easy to love, and from the little I’ve seen of her, Porter seems similar. I’m a little shocked and saddened that neither of the marines made it through in the 49th.
And it’s looking like it’s Rouda ‘steada Keirstead!
I’m quite pleased that Newman lost. The best signs of this election cycle were indisputably those from Josh Ferguson with Recall Yes. Who knows how many thousand yes votes are the result of those signs!
Indeed. Ask Ryan about those. (I haven’t; I’m just interested in his opinion of your hypothesis there.)
They were an excellent parody.
They were also stolen and vandalized frequently.
I guess that means they were effective.
They were designed to confuse voters and, as the above comment suggests, they probably did. Not much “parody” there at all, in fact. In a commercial context, they’d have been infringing.
So — you had anything to do with planning and production of the “parody”?
Why do you ask?