.
.
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For Ashleigh Aitken and Sal Tinajero, the sweet taste of victory is within sight — if only there are enough ballots left to … to … [metaphor stopped working!]
Notable results and non-results:
- Ashleigh Aitken has cut her deficit against Harry Sidhu from 712 to 527 (That may be two days’ worth of tallies; the last entry in my spreadsheet from the weekend, and I think I missed a day of reporting.) That’s a gain of 185 votes after on 30,650 Anaheim votes counted. At that rate of gain, she’d need 87,311 more Anaheim votes counted to tie. The vote share between Aitken and Sidhu remained at about 56% of the total vote. So without further ado, let’s go down to “What’s Left to Vote?” Ooh, just 17,278 votes left to count, of which 15,846 are in the critical combined (I believe) category of provisionals and conditional voter registrations. That’s not a good sign for Ashleigh, but let’s go through the numbers anyway.
- Here are the obstacles for her:
- Not all of those votes will be counted; for some, verification will be unsuccessful or impossible to conduct.
- We can’t presume that all of those votes are from Anaheim.
- Even if they are from Anaheim, some may not have voted in the Mayor’s race.
- Even if they voted in the Mayor’s race, some may not have voted for one of the top two candidates.
- Even if they voted for either Sidhu or Aitken, not enough may have voted for Aitken.
So does that means its over? Probably — but not definitely. The question is whether the remaining ballots are a representative sample of what has come before. I don’t know — and I’m certainly not going to trust anonymous comments from other blogs by people claiming to know.
Here’s the scenario where Ashleigh wins:
Vote count observers supportive of the Sidhu campaign — and yes, we’d probably be talking about those associated with Disney, because this would be expensive and who else? — could have been challenging these ballots disproportionately from Anaheim. (For all we know, all of the other ballots in this category have been done.) They would probably be challenging ballots from certain districts, if they know them, but might simply be challenging ballots from new voters (if they have that information handy) or simply those with female or Latino names.
When a ballot is challenged, a process goes into effect that takes some time to complete. (I know that this is true of absentees and I believe that it is also true of provisionals. Could be wrong.) Now, which ballots would likely be around at the very end of the election (with the exception of damaged ballots)? Those that had been challenged, right? It’s not clear that there is an organized effort to challenge ballots anywhere else in the county — or in Anaheim, though I have anecdotal reports — and if there was one in Janet Nguyen’s district it would have been given up days ago as futile.
So these remaining ballots could be very unlike those that have already been counted. To use a gross analogy, it’s like the last teaspoons-full from a large tumbler of water that has been drunk by a three-year-old child are probably going to be quite different in composition from the first teaspoons-full that could have been skimmed from the top of the container before the backwash and slobbering commenced.
- Ashleigh could win if:
- something like the above scenario of ballot challenges did occur
- it was solely, mainly, or at least substantially focuses on ballots from Anaheim
- the ballot challenges were biased toward delay or disqualification of the counting of Democratic ballots
- those ballots that took all of the way to the end to count are more likely to be for the Democrat among the two front-runners than previous ballots
This just doesn’t seem entirely unlikely. If the lawyers and other observers did a good job of targeting ballots for challenges — and Disney could afford the best, right? — then this is exactly what they would intend to happen. This is why Republicans in Florida call for a premature end to counting ballots. And part of a benefit of this (wholly unethical and arguably illegal) procedure is that it makes people believe that a late swing to the Democrat came about by fraud — when it actually came about through biased challenges leading to a skewed sample of ballots being counted last.
So: probably over. Doesn’t look good for Ashleigh. Still possible!
More results below!
WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?
Total Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 477,711Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 460,433
Total Estimated Left to Count: 17,278
Vote-by-Mail Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 126200Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 125,994
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 206
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 123000Total provisionals counted: 110,240
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 12,760
Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 191100
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 190,857
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 243
Election Day Paper Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200Total election day paper ballots counted: 12,492
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 708
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,947
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 275
Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 178
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 3,086
ALL OF THE REMAINING CLOSE CONTESTS! (~2%)
Here are the downballot races that are still close. I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday. In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out. (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 2%,” down 1% from the previous day’s criterion.)
If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!
| LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 31 of 31 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * CAROL NORMANDIN |
5,822 |
21.9% |
| * DEE NAMBA PERRY |
5,625 |
21.1% |
| JAMES J. KELLY |
5,462 |
20.5% |
| CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE |
5,427 |
20.4% |
| MARK NELSON |
3,533 |
13.3% |
| HOWARD HILLS (W) |
748 |
2.8% |
|
Since our last report: Normandin picked up 102 votes, Perry 87, Kelly 87, and De Bretteville 96. Her deficit against Kelly dropped from 44 to 35. Probably running (or ran) out of ballots, but we’ll keep watching.
| LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 35 of 35 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| MARLYS DAVIDSON |
10,327 |
26.5% |
| * DIANA D. HILL |
9,568 |
24.5% |
| * JEFFREY I. BARKE |
9,532 |
24.4% |
| OLAINA ANDERSON |
6,806 |
17.4% |
| CONNOR SWAN SMITH |
2,808 |
7.2% |
|
Hill picks up 87. Barke gains 74. Margin grows from 23 to 36. We’ll keep watching.
| SADDLEBACK VALLEY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 128 of 128 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| BARBARA SCHULMAN |
38,857 |
32.4% |
| GREG KUNATH |
28,211 |
23.5% |
| DAN WALSH |
27,025 |
22.5% |
| * DENNIS P WALSH |
25,792 |
21.5% |
|
Schulman picks up 850. Kunath up 834. Dan Walsh gains 803. Margin grows from 1,155 to 1,186. Tempted to call this one over.
| FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1 |
| Completed Precincts: 9 of 9 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| REGINA CUADRA |
4,247 |
50.7% |
| CHESTER JENG |
4,130 |
49.3% |
|
Fullerton Joint Union High School District Governing Board Member, Trustee Area No. 1 LA VOTE!
| Candidate(s) |
Votes |
Percent |
| Chester Jeng (N) |
2,002 |
53.05% |
| Regina Cuadra (N) |
1,772 |
46.95% |
Jeng up 230 in LA, minus Cuadra by 117 in OC, equals Jeng up by 113. That’s a drop of 25, so we’ll keep watching.
| HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 37 of 37 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * PAUL R. MORROW |
17,502 |
25.5% |
| DIANA MARKS |
14,472 |
21.1% |
| * SHARI KOWALKE |
13,572 |
19.8% |
| JENNIFER HAYDEN |
13,379 |
19.5% |
| KARRIE BURROUGHS |
9,671 |
14.1% |
|
Marks adds 100 and is safe. Kowalke and Hayden each add 97. Lead is stable; number of additional votes is dropping.
| OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 41 of 41 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * PATRICIA SINGER |
17,939 |
24.6% |
| * JOHN BRISCOE |
15,719 |
21.5% |
| * JACK C. SOUDERS |
15,405 |
21.1% |
| GRACEY VAN DER MARK |
12,761 |
17.5% |
| KATE HOLMES |
11,140 |
15.3% |
|
This looks over, but we’ll keep watching it because the final margin might matter to future elections. Singer is safe. Briscoe adds 138. Souders adds 135. VDMark 121. Margin grows from 629 to 644. Decisive, but one wants even more!
| County Supervisor, 4th District |
| Completed Precincts: 276 of 276 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| DOUG CHAFFEE |
76,186 |
50.4% |
| TIM SHAW |
74,946 |
49.6% |
|
Chaffee adds 993, Shaw ads 890. OK, maybe we’ll stop watching now.
| CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor |
| Completed Precincts: 129 of 129 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| HARRY SIDHU |
26,315 |
32.5% |
| ASHLEIGH AITKEN |
25,788 |
31.9% |
| LORRI GALLOWAY |
12,272 |
15.2% |
| CYNTHIA WARD |
7,100 |
8.8% |
| H. FUJI SHIOURA |
2,999 |
3.7% |
| ROBERT WILLIAMS |
2,797 |
3.5% |
| RUDY GAONA |
2,478 |
3.1% |
| TONY D. MARTIN |
1,188 |
1.5% |
|
See my discussion up at the top of the post. Very likely Sidhu.
| CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1 |
| Completed Precincts: 8 of 8 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK |
1,545 |
34.9% |
| * VIRGINIA VAUGHN |
1,531 |
34.6% |
| W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI |
1,352 |
30.5% |
|
These are from provisional ballots, which by definition are cast on election day. The margin rose from 11 to 14; Park gained 16, Vaughn 13, and Val 9. Despite her late troubles, Park is winning in the provisionals. We’ll keep watching.
| CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 16 of 16 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| PETER BLAKE |
4,787 |
14.7% |
| * TONI ISEMAN |
4,730 |
14.6% |
| SUE KEMPF |
4,412 |
13.6% |
| ANN CHRISTOPH |
4,167 |
12.8% |
| CHERYL KINSMAN |
3,983 |
12.3% |
| JUDIE MANCUSO |
2,767 |
8.5% |
| * ROBERT “ROB” ZUR SCHMIEDE |
2,177 |
6.7% |
| PAUL MERRITT |
2,036 |
6.3% |
| LORENE LAGUNA |
1,389 |
4.3% |
| SUE MARIE CONNOLLY |
712 |
2.2% |
| ELIZABETH “LIZ” BATES |
544 |
1.7% |
| ALLISON T. MATHEWS |
518 |
1.6% |
| JORG DUBIN (W) |
251 |
0.8% |
|
Kempf widens that gap a little on Christoph, adding 77 compared to 59. On top of the previous 27 point gain, it looks like the late shift is to Kempf.
| CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 11 of 11 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * CAROL MOORE |
5,425 |
35.2% |
| * JOE RAINEY |
5,027 |
32.6% |
| JUDITH P. TROUTMAN |
4,948 |
32.1% |
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Moore up by 84, Rainey by 79, Troutman by 80.
| CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 76 of 76 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD |
18,348 |
50.0% |
| TIM STOAKS |
18,326 |
50.0% |
|
Duffy continues his late climb, picking up 475 to 399 for Stoaks. The provisionals love Duffy and, after picking up 204 on Stoaks last time, it looks like he’s in the lead to stay. We will keep watching, though.
| CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 28 of 28 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| DAN BANE |
12,070 |
16.4% |
| LAURA FERGUSON |
8,651 |
11.7% |
| * KATHY WARD |
8,055 |
10.9% |
| GENE W. JAMES |
7,414 |
10.1% |
| WAYNE EGGLESTON |
5,936 |
8.1% |
| BERNIE WOHLFARTH |
5,932 |
8.0% |
| JACKSON HINKLE |
5,754 |
7.8% |
| JAKE RYBCZYK |
5,343 |
7.2% |
| DON BROWN |
5,234 |
7.1% |
| MIKII RATHMANN |
3,983 |
5.4% |
| ED WARD |
3,264 |
4.4% |
| TIFFANY JOY ROBSON LEET |
2,061 |
2.8% |
|
Ward up 469, James up 386. Ward’s looking good for third.
| CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor |
| Completed Precincts: 78 of 78 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * MIGUEL A. PULIDO |
28,094 |
50.6% |
| SAL TINAJERO |
27,374 |
49.4% |
|
Pulido picks up 566; Tinajero gains 641; the margin drops by 75 to 720. As with Anaheim, provisionals may be at play here, but Tinajero’s late gains are so far coming too slowly to make up the deficit. He has certainly vindicated the faith that many of us had that he would be Pulido’s strongest opponent — and, with Pulido termed out, a plausible successor. (Well, except that multiple Democrats running will likely split the vote.)
| CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 6 |
| Completed Precincts: 78 of 78 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS |
20,859 |
39.0% |
| NELIDA MENDOZA |
18,186 |
34.0% |
| MIRNA VELASQUEZ |
14,385 |
26.9% |
|
Yeah, we’re done watching this one.
| CAPISTRANO BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 1 of 1 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * MIKE HAACK |
47 |
25.8% |
| ARDESHIR IRANI |
38 |
20.9% |
| PATRICK MC NULTY |
28 |
15.4% |
| CHARLOTTE M. BLOOM |
24 |
13.2% |
| ROBERT H. BANCROFT |
23 |
12.6% |
| * KURTIS BREEDING |
22 |
12.1% |
|
No change.
| IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 246 of 246 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| * DOUG REINHART |
65,257 |
26.0% |
| * STEVE LAMAR |
63,332 |
25.3% |
| * PEER A. SWAN |
53,707 |
21.4% |
| ANDREW R. POLLARD |
51,708 |
20.6% |
| RICHARD A. VANZINI |
16,745 |
6.7% |
|
Swan picks up 1,778; Pollard gains 1,836. Pollard has been gaining in the late ballors, but not nearly enough. We just want to be absolutely sure on this one, so no early call.
| MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT Director |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 86 of 86 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| KELLY JENNINGS |
31,201 |
24.1% |
| * DONALD R. FROELICH |
29,270 |
22.6% |
| WILLIAM “BILL” MOORHEAD |
24,737 |
19.1% |
| KEN MADDOX |
23,160 |
17.9% |
| JOEL BISHOP |
11,240 |
8.7% |
| SHERRY WANNINGER |
9,940 |
7.7% |
|
Moorhead picks up 470, Maddox gains 405. Hard to see Maddox making up a 1,577 vote margin in increments of -65.
| L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage |
| Completed Precincts: 129 of 129 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
| Yes |
44,920 |
54.1% |
| No |
38,082 |
45.9% |
|
YES adds 894 votes. NO adds 467 votes. Margin jumps from 6,411 to 6,838. I’m only leaving this up here because of the probable correlation to the Mayoral vote.
Thanks for this update. Did Matthew “old man baby” Harper lose officially? He hasn’t posted any acknowledgement of election defeat just photos of him dressed up as the character from Toy Story. Lord. He is such an embarrassment. If he did lose will the pizza place hire him back now? He can wear his sad role playing costumes and stand outside with a sign, “Make garlic knots great again”.
Nothing is official until the votes are certified, but — yeah, he lost.
Note: we try to avoid anonymous (that’s you) attacks (pizza-related commentary) on human being (Harper, yes) here because it pollutes the ecosystem, as it has in most other county political blogs. So: you got in your shot, and you’re welcome to continue with substantive criticism, but please avoid the snarky knife-twisting. (Yes, we did make an exception for your comments on Gracey —she earned it.)
Why? its funny who cares. Like this place gets any decent traffic LOL dont be such a prune
Okay. That’s fair feedback. Matthew Harper has a long history of being very rude and immature to constituents. Really nasty. But you’re right. Better to be more constructive in criticism. Rise above his past negativity!
Here goes: IMHO Matthew Harper was never qualified or fit for office. It is exciting to hear that he will be replaced by a Yale educated woman who will hopefully be a better representative for the area. Looking forward to a brighter future with a brighter Assembly person!
(sigh) Even the outfits? He’s just asking for it by dressing like Woody…
Thanks again for all you do on this blog, sir.
Nicely done! See, was that so hard? (OK, I can accept that not making fun of the way he dresses could be hard.)
I hope you didn’t take my comment too personally or harshly. I’m proud that ours is pretty much the only comments section around that isn’t completely toxic to read — and getting to that point has taken a lot of doing.
Ashleigh’s deficit is now down to 484. More details coming soon!
341 votes were counted — 191 of them were for either Ashleigh or Sidhu. She got 117 votes — 61.26 of the two-person vote — and narrowed the margin by 43 votes. At this rate, she’s need to do that about 8 more times, meaning that Anaheim would have to expect about 2,728 more votes if the pool is just like today’s.
The bad news for Ashleigh — based on today’s proportion, she can only expect Anaheim to get about 1,000 more votes — Optimistically, she might get about 400 of them with Sidhu getting 200, which would reduce the deficit to a little below 300. That’s about 100-250 out of recall territory.
However, remember the “backwash” model! If what’s left are largely Anaheim provisionals, maybe Anaheim gets 25% of the last 17,300 — 4,325 votes. If that happens, then at the rate of reducing the margin by 43 votes per 341 counted, That would cut — and reverse — the margin by 545 votes, giving her a 61 vote win. Or, she could make do with fewer votes from each batch if she increases the decrease in margin per 1000 votes counted from about 127 (where it is now) to something higher — also not out of the question if these later provisionals become more Democratic, which might happen if these were the “harder cases” to prove: e.g,. with renters moving or people becoming homeless.
Special note to the asshole Pulidophile with the burning obsessive hatred of Mirvette Judeh, who likes to pretend that he’s Chumley: we’re not publishing your crap anymore. It’s not hard to figure out what is yours. Consider your anonymous self banned.
Yeah this person/people’s obsession with Mirvette is weird. One commenter I was pretty sure was Mardahl let slip some fantasies about her a couple times. I think that was “OC Dem.” I suspect it’s really two or three circle-jerkers including Mardahl, who take turns using each other’s names, most recently “Chumley” a lot because I let that name thru a couple times.
It’s weird, and sad. But I believe that in the afterlife we get to make fun of them in front of an audience of everyone who has ever lived.
*So Dr. D., who the heck is Doug Chafee? Does anyone know this guy? Then it is very
difficult to believe the Marshall Duffield is actually going to beat Stoakes. We told Stoakes
to take the phone call and make nice nice, but evidently he wasn’t convincing enough.
Lot’s of bargaining going on in Anaheim…eh? If Ashleigh just contacts Arte and gives
him assuances….maybe she will have a chance…otherwise …the fix is in.
Doug Chaffee has been on the Fullerton City Council for a long time, most recently as Mayor. He has been most notably an unquestioning supporter of the Police Association. Ryan would have a fuller assessment of him.
I’m surprised by Duffy passing Stoakes in provisionals as well. Is Duffy more liberal or more Democratic affiliated (or less conservative or Republican affiliated) than Stoakes? The consistent rule is that people who can’t prove their right to vote in a jurisdiction tend to be (or at least lean towards) Democrats; my working hypothesis is that the ballots may come from surfers with no fixed residence. You live there — what do you think?
Even Arte can’t fix this election, and of course Ashleigh wouldn’t ask him to. The more people who cast provisional ballots that can confirm their residency, the better her chances. I don’t know what anyone, if anyone, is doing about it. I’m just sort of signaling wildly here and hope that someone on the campaign or in the party leadership notices and does something intelligent. Sigh.
I thought they were joking with “Who is Doug Chaffee?” The Winships should read this blog.
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2018/09/against-doug-chaffee-for-supervisor/
*Not really, first off Adding Provisional Ballots, after election day to win elections is very “old tech. How many years they have been doing that
could be a good read best seller by someone from the inside.: So, when
you have the Duffy/Stoakes deal…….”Today is Friday, you know what that
means, we’re goin have a special guest…..on Anything Can Happen Day!”
That was Mickey Mouse Club 1957.
As far as Dougie is concerned….we should really catch up with Bruce and Linda Whitaker and get their “insider trading” read. Fullerton! Oh how we miss the days when the great Bill Danameyer was the City Attorney…way
back in 1959! And of course when the Fullerton Tribune was a great local paper that covered everything!
Bruce and Linda can’t stand Doug. Neither can the Democrats up there. He is virtually friendless.
Behold the awesome power of the Blue Wave-Plus-Money.
And what Bruce and Linda have to say is in my story as well.
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2018/09/against-doug-chaffee-for-supervisor/
You really ought to read the Orange Juice Blog sometimes.