UPDATE, Sun. 2:45 p.m.

AND, a 5.5 earthquake hit four minutes ago in Ojai. I was going to joke yesterday about how the storm might bring earthquakes; this is very weird.

We’re getting reports of flooding in Fullerton. Please put your own reports in comments.

Anyone tried to get into ARTIC?

By the way, the early rain last night in Brea and Newport Beach was storm-related, but not the storm itself; we’re having abnormally high humidity right now — which is storm-related — and that can lead to “pop-up” storms. As readers probably know by now, we’re getting sustained rains that will probably be in the 2-4″ range. That’s a lot, but not unprecedented. I’m getting conflicting reports about what wind we can expects later on — but for now we do have one window open.

UPDATE, Sun. 3:30 a.m.

It started raining in Brea at about 3:00 a.m. Not much yet, but discernable; a light delicate sprinkling that coalesces into larger drops on a windshield. This is earlier than expected; along the lines of the forecast we had a day ago rather than the one we had for most of Saturday. We get a reprieve at 5 a.m., and then it’s 30, 40, 50% chance of rain straight through until 4 a.m. tomorrow, when it drops below 40%. South County got the wispy clouds off of the ocean first, the quickly a front from the Riverside-Ontario area advanced with a darker shade of blue. As of 2 a.m., the now-Category 1 hurricane was still 500 miles south of us, not quite yet into Baja California Norte.

UPDATE, Sat. 9 p.m.

SCE has some information for you:

At SCE, safety is our top priority. We are actively monitoring Tropical Storm Hilary, and due to the severe weather expected, there is the potential for power outages. Should a storm-related outage occur, we have crews positioned to restore power as quickly as safety allows. To see the latest outages, visit: sce.com/outage-center
Again, your safety is our top priority, and we appreciate your patience. Please visit on sce.com/safetytips for tips to help you prepare for the storm. To view forecasted hurricane activity, visit nhc.noaa.gov
REMEMBER: If you see a downed power line, call 911 immediately and then notify SCE at 1-800-611-1911.

Sincerely,
Larry Chung
Vice President, Local Public Affairs, SCE

Frankly, I suspect that executive compensation may be SCE’s top priority, but safety is actually more important. So write down that number!

PREFACE: PROTECTING THE HOMELESS

UPDATE, Sat. 7 p.m.

Anyone in Anaheim or Fullerton who needs shelter from the storm should call 714-820-9090 for shelter today or early Sunday. Shelter including possible hotel vouchers. Vern, Donna, and the Robbinses are passing out flyers about this. And: Mayor Ashleigh plans to have a helicopter announcing this!

Vern’s not the only one around here who knows how to find an appropriate video:

[My original text may be found below — and I still believe it, though let’s go with the vouchers for now!]

The first thing that authorities in any level of government have to do is to get the homeless out of all riverbeds, more obviously the Santa Ana Riverbed, and out of all flood prone areas. Flash flooding is highly probable on Sunday. And the expected winds are capable of knocking people over — best guess is 40-50 mph, but some gusts may exceed 60 or 70 — and turning small objects into dangerous projectiles.

How to get the homeless to go? Tell them that they get to spend the day in ARTIC.

I am presuming that ARTIC was designed to withstand winds of greater than 70 mph. (It if wasn’t, this would be a great time for Natalie Meeks to tell us so.) It has enough space to allow plenty of people to be on the main floor — as well as more on the second and small third floors. I’ve been told that this is not generally possible because of the need to clean it overnight. Watching my language here: to heck with that. I presume that ARTIC’s copious glass walls are made of the same strong stuff that are put in skyscrapers — and skyscrapers survive stronger wind (and possible projectiles) than we will see. Open up the unused restaurant spaces to make room for more people. And stock up the ice cream store and the snack bar with plenty of merch, that Anaheim can fund through, oh, Covid funds. This should be happening tonight with the expectation of putting people up through Monday morning. (We can expect a good likelihood of flooding in most of the places where the homeless stay.) If it’s possible for the county or the cities to declare a disaster — do it. If the Anaheim City Council has to meet to approve this, they can meet tonight on an emergency basis.

Now on to matters that don’t primarily affect the homeless.

We’ve Never Seen the Likes of This Here Before

It’s critical to remember that we are NOT preparing for a flood. We’re reasonably used to preparing for flooding, but that not even most of what we need to before the storm comes. We’re preparing for one of the biggest sustained OC windstorms in human memory. Some people approaching 90 may have seen something like it as toddlers, but not since then. The preparation for a windstorm is VERY different. It involves making sure that windows and doors — especially garage doors — are closed. But even more than that, it involves getting objects that can become projectiles to places where they will stay put — or at least be less likely to fly through a window, car, or wall. Obviously, all non-huge pets are inside pets on Sunday — and huge pets can be taken to appropriate special locations. Potted plants will need to be moved insider or at least to places where they will do little harm. But one thing you do not want today is to have the charming metal chair you have outside to be hurtled by a 70 mph wind gust through a window with you on the other side. Is that graphic enough for you?

Remember what we just learned from the Maui fire: we will feel the winds well before the rain!

Now onto the story as originally planned.

A category 2 (previously 4) hurricane — puckishly named Hurricane Hilary, (thankfully with one “L”) — is currently climbing northward off of the coast of Baja California, heading towards us. Cool Pacific Ocean temperatures — which in future decades may be a thing of the past, meaning that future events like this will be far worse — are expected to reduce it to a “Tropical Storm Hilary.” But don’t kid yourself: “just” a tropical storm is still more combined water and wind than Southern California has seen in decades. Our most recent tropical storm landfall, “El Cordonazo” — a term meaning “a blow from a heavy cord,” which describes storms like this one (that almost inevitably track westward into the Pacific) — hit Long Beach and San Pedro literally the same month that Hitler invaded Poland, igniting World War II. Wikipedia has a nice page on California’s history of tropical storms and hurricanes — which will soon have to be updated.

The CNN report you see above suggests that the storm could take either a coastal track (in which case, major erosion and flooding) or an inland track (in which case, major mudslides and flooding.) Either way, the wind will still be high. This is a great day to update your emergency preparedness kit. The CNN report doesn’t mention the possibility of power outages; while I don’t know whether flooding alone would cause them (though winds affect power stations just like everything else) I suspect that 40-60 mph winds could easily affect power transmission. (Obviously, not only should you avoid downed power lines, but you need to be careful about being in water that might conduct current from a downed powerline.)

Obviously, if you’ve been thinking about visiting eastern Arizona — not Nevada or Phoenix, which are also potentially in the path of the storm — this might be a good time to consider it. (Sooner rather than later, if you do! Others may have the same idea and we don’t want to see people sitting in their cars weathering the storm within gigantic traffic jams.)

My experience from my east coast decades is with blizzards rather than hurricanes, but those of you with relevant knowledge are welcome to put it into comments. (Off-topic comments will be blown away.) One main idea to keep in mind is: Batten down the hatches! (That’s how ships prepare for storms at sea) One think that people may overlook is to make sure that your garage doors and inner windows are firmly closed! If wind gets into your garage, it cannot easily escape due to the outside pressure; it can then build up pressure and blow the roof off of it!)

Imagine what object around you can be blown around — and take them down. In our backyard, we have a big beach umbrella that we forgot to take down in a milder windstorm. It flew impressively far. It’s now closed and weighted down. We also have a tarp that goes over our outdoor dining area. We’ve learned that we need to take it down too. If you have dead trees around you with limbs that might hit your house, then today and tomorrow are great days to take them down if you’re able. We have an unburied wooden pole power line looming over our backyard just at the property line between us and our northern neighbor; we fear that it has been eyeing our pool. This gives us pause today.

Preparations!

I’m going to quote at length from this excellent 2005 post put out by Barbara Mikkelson of snopes.com on hurricane safety, which included several things that had not occurred to me.

Snopes considers plywood only slightly better than nothing, mostly a way to help guard windows from flying debris. It’s not particularly effective, even when properly installed. “FEMA has noted that even a minimal hurricane can drill a 2-by-4 through a concrete wall.” So plywood is going to fare even worse. (That said, having something taped over a closed window to block shattered glass is likely a good idea — although if the window shatters obviously it won’t be of further use.)

One last caution: If you stay in your home during a hurricane and the power goes out, do not light candles or gas or oil lanterns because of the potential for gas leaks from storm-damaged lines. Instead, use only flashlights or battery-powered lanterns during and after a storm until power is safely restored and all gas lines are checked.

Thanks to snopes.com for all of its good work on fact-checking!

OK, that’s it for snopes. (And if you don’t think that snopes is “fact-based,” well, we’re not going to come close your windows for you, and good luck with that.)

As for mudslides and flooding — first, try to get away from areas disposed towards either in advance. Then pay attention to reports of —

Wait, I hear some electromagnetic disturbance from outside my garage:

DO NOT FUCKING DRIVE THROUGH FLOODWATERS, HEAR ME?

Sorry; that profane message came from my car. Ok, I’ll calm down.

Here’s a page of hurricane safety tips — including a link on how to teach kids about them — from NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency). From page two of their guide:

“Storm surge can raise the water level several feet or more, causing flooding in normally dry areas many miles from the shore, especially in low-lying coastal areas. Moving water is an incredibly powerful force. Just one foot of water can carry a small car, but during storm surge, many feet of water can move onshore. The force of this water can not only carry cars, but can completely sweep houses and buildings off of their foundations. As a result, damage from storm surge can be catastrophic.”

Now, if you don’t trust your government, I guess this is your chance to prove it. Don’t have anyone in or near your car, though.

Personally, if I still lived right within a mile of the beach I would get away from the beach well ahead of when I needed to, because of the possibility of a gigantic traffic jam full of procrastinators. (Remember, you can stomp on the brakes all you want and it won’t matter if you are hydroplaning.) NOAA’s rule for hurricanes is: “If you can see a body of water while on flat ground, you’re too close.”

FEMA also has a page on what to do before, during, and after a hurricane. If you don’t trust FEMA either, then seek out the inexperienced counsel of your choosing.

I may update this, storm prep permitting, but that’s the news as of 3 p.m. Saturday. Be safe, everyone!