I’m composing this shortly before the First 2024 Presidential Debate begins. I have a prediction that Trump will do better than expected, but Biden will probably still be judged the winner. The key is that Trump may not go for lying and distorting at all, which the public seems to find tiresome. Instead, I suspect that he’s just going to go into full insult comic mode.
Making the debate a largely humorous, rather than hate-filled, affair would probably be Trump’s best bet. (I’m publishing this late enough to set down my marker without worrying about affecting Trump’s plans.) Trump is wicked in the fascist/rapist/liar/blasphemer/conman/narcissist/sociopath ways, of course, but he can also be wickedly funny. I don’t laugh at him, but I can note both his craft and his success.
Humor is about the only area not violative of the Ten Commandments where Trump does have the advantage over Biden. It’s not that he’s not capable of being funny — his White House Correspondents Dinner bit was pretty good for people who could watch it without ideological blinders — but it was more witty than uproarious. He has a long wind-up to his jokes, while Trump has them out his mouth (or his quivering body, when he’s making fun of someone disabled) and moving onto the next one within five seconds. Making the debate not about policy and performance, but about comedy and connections, would give Trump the home-field advantage.
Moreover, as we’ve been hearing so much about preparedness, a comic Trump would be just about the hardest Trump persona for Biden to prepare for. Think of this as a debate between a laconic, homespun Will Rogers (you can guess which of them I’m talking about) versus a frenetic, slashing Don Rickles. How does Rogers prepare for such a debate? He would not be able to grow a sense of acerbic and nasty comic timing overnight — and the portions of the audience who want to see blood on the ground will not react well to any tut-tutting. And when Trump takes the piss out of a stuffy Biden, who worries about policy and decency and such, his fans will howl while Biden fans will fidget uncomfortably. (If there were an audience at this debate, this would be deadly.) All Biden can do is play the straight man, ready a few zinger comebacks, and try to turn the debate towards policy. And an active malevolent Trump is probably going to look younger and more active than a reactive off-kilter Biden.
Trump would lose the critics who will call him unpresidential — but wasn’t that a given anyway? He had little to lose, given where he starts, and I’d guess that “canceling the final exam” on policy options would go over better with low-information and low-interest independent voters than earnestly encouraging them to study because it’s good for them and for the world.
Biden will eventually take a win if Trump does this because the media will skewer him, having had a lot of time to come up with cruel and insightful responses. But on the evening of the debate, among the voters most in play, I’d bet that Trump — if he does this — would get the bump.
They both look like they needed tapioca pudding and a blanket.
If voting got us to the precipice of this democratic republic, it seems like something other than voting will be required to get us off of it.
Trump was right re the USA being an embarrassment. Look who we are left with to vote for.
Its Damien Omen Two meets Dave meets Weekend at Bernie’s.
Welcome to the Freakshow.
OK I’ll say it: IT’S GAVIN NEWSOM’S TIME.
Despite all of our criticisms of him in the past. He’s the guy who can beat Trump.
Newsom is highly unpopular with his 39 million constituents, has the worst record of any California governor in history and is rated as the worst governor in the USA. So there’s that ….
I don’t know about that. He easily beat the Republican Recall.
He beat it by clearing the field of any serious Democratic rivals. That would not happen this time.
But yes, of course Tardif’s comment is unhinged.
Looking at this leaves me nostalgic for when I wrote it. I was so much happier yesterday before 6:00.
At least when the next polls come out, [Ruth] Biden [Ginsberg] will probably better understand the notion of getting out of one’s position before it wreaks a disaster.
“[Ruth] Biden [Ginsberg]??? will probably better understand the notion of getting out of one’s position before it wreaks a disaster.” WTF does all THAT mean?
I figured it out. And I went to Mater Dei like you.
Look at the disaster (from our point of view) that RBG caused by not knowing when it was time to leave.
Got it – thanks. Me thinks Jill & WH staff can’t let go.
I agree with this. Dr. Jill isn’t doing right by her old man.
Remember that Biden is still kicking himself for allowing Hillary (and Bill) from edging him out of the race to succeed Obama, because he (probably rightly) believed that he had a better chance against Trump. But Hillary was insistent and threatened to sabotage the women’s vote if she wasn’t chosen, so he demurred — and disaster ensued.
That is a much more likely source of his unwillingness to bow out. He has a lot of faith in himself — and the one time he didn’t trust it the country exploded. This has nothing to do with Jill Biden’s personal ambitions. He’s an actual patriot and he believes he can deliver. It may well be a flawed assessment, but it’s coming from someplace decent.
Bingo Vern. Roe v Wade’s worst enemy in the end was a woman. RBG.
Even for a master of bluster like you, Eric, that comment is completely insane.
Yes, RBG was selfish in wanting to hang on until she could be the Justice to swear in Hillary in 2016. And yes, she was wrongly dismissive of Roe because she felt that the right to abortion should have been built entirely on the sorts of victories she was achieving as an attorney, which she believed (somewhat questionably) would lead to codification of abortion rights. But eventually, she came around to the need to protect Roe, and she was far from alone in thinking that Trump would not win in 2016.
All that said, calling her Roe’s “worst enemy” — placing herself ahead of Scalia, Alito, and Leonard Leo — is such hyperbole that you won’t be able to replenish your bole stockpile for a decade.
Just as the reason Biden now can’t win because of screen grabs and snippets from yesterday’s debate, Gavin can’t win for a very simple reason: Kimberly Guilfoyle.
You now know her as Donald Trump Jr.’s fiancee and the woman who screams like a horror movie monster at Republican conventions, as memorably parodied by Cecily Strong.
Do you really want to see this for the next four months?
What readers may forget is that she is the woman with whom Gavin Newsom cheated on with his wife; they then married and enjoyed an acrimonious divorce five years later.
She’s my dark horse bet for Trump’s Vice-President pick — he’d love to keep everything “in the family” — but would become the betting favorite if Newsom were the nominee. The main role of the VP pick is in attacking the other party’s nominee — and she’d be over-the-top effective. She was a prosecutor in for both San Francisco and Los Angeles Counties.
I think that running against Newsom would make Republicans absolutely gleeful. If we want someone from California besides Kamala on the ticket, we have lots of good choices — but we don’t want two Califorians because of the Twelfth Amendment (unless one of them relocated.)
Despite Newsom’s positioning himself, there are plenty of other good candidates nationwide. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, and Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland (who has had cancer twice, but is in remission.) I’d even prefer three candidates who I disparaged in 2020 — Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren — over Newsom. (Maybe Pete Buttigieg — though I think he’s vulnerable on his Transportation Secretary performance. Probably would lead to record LGBT+ fundraising, though!)
AOC will also turn 35 a month before Election Day, but I don’t think that she and Harris would make a good ticket. If she’s going to be an Obama, she does need a Biden type for Vice President. And of course AIPAC would spend trillions to beat her.
I’d love to see Ro Khanna on a ticket if we get a female candidate from another state, but I think that choosing Eric Swalwell might be more realistic. Swalwell is very impressive.
So no: no Newsom, Nohow — at least with these stakes.
Link to video of Strong’s turn as Guilfoyle, towards the end of this very funny sketch.
Newsom has difficulty with public speak off script. If you thought Biden was bad, good grief!!! Trump would chew him up and spit him out despite having worse hair and less hand gestures.
I’m thinking more Jerry Brown. He’s like Mr. Clean. He’ll fix everything.
Queue Dead Kennedys “California Uber Allies”
https://youtu.be/jrWflCJPM4w
Oh yeah HE’S not old.
Only 90 at the end of his first term! C’mon, man!
Again, Eric, you can’t have a Californian and Kamala Harris
inon the samedistrictticket, unless she changed her official residence to DC or maybe Maryland if she owns property there. This is a stupid rule that stupid people love to defend, given that a ticket with two people from the same state is a problem best solved by the voters, who may frown on it.Xavier Becerra or Alex Padilla are the only ones from our state besides Kamala that seem to have a decent argument for being on a ticket.
Unlike Becerra, padilla or Harris, brown has a track record actually leading shit and fixing other’s shit.
See “C’mon. man” comment above.
Kamala Harris is a hoochie mama. And, no offense but she brings the American Israel lobby into the Oval Office if grandpa keels over which looks like any day now. Jerry Brown may be older than Biden but I bet you he still comes of younger than the sleepy one. Where is the tapioca pudding ???
https://www.ajc.org/news/american-jewish-committee-ceo-ted-deutch-second-gentleman-douglas-emhoff-hold-forum-with-top
https://youtu.be/fYg5bSbIt5U
Cuz Jews don’t control Hollywood? Lol if you are Jewish and you say that it’s the truth. If you are not, you are anti-Semitic.
I don’t know about hoochie mama. There is a lot I don’t like about Kamala, from being a rotten California Attorney General to her smug languid nasal delivery which I imagine nobody else can stand but maybe I’m wrong.
Still it’s not so much a question of who WE like the best, but what Democrat can beat Trump, what Democrat can excite those swing voters. I think most uninformed idiots out there look at her and see scary Black Lives Matter (very ironically.) And some of them have President Kamala in the back of their minds after seeing old Joe the other night.
But if polls show me wrong about Kamala then Kamala it is.
Kamala was basically ol Willy’s concubine. So much for me too movement.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8623781/amp/Kamala-Harris-affair-San-Franciscos-black-mayor-Willie-Brown.html
The Daily Mail, now?
Look for another more credible description of their relationship. She idolized him — he was the most powerful politician in the state for a long while — and wanted to marry him, but he wouldn’t do it because he knew it would not be good for her. She was not some side piece of whatever you mean by “hoochie mama,” but I’ll give you some time to think about what you meant and whether it was more sexist or racist before you comment again. You know how to reach us.
It’s an accurate description. He was “estranged”.
As if a woman having a serious relationship with a long-estranged man makes one a “hoochie mama”! Some family law lawyer you are!
Maybe you mean something idiosyncratic by that tern: would you please define it, as you understand it, for our audience?
If not, please send me a copy of a brief where you have used “hoochie mama” as something other than a quote of someone else. I’ll wait.
She isn’t stupid and the Yamster loonies have long ago decided that she is stupid and incompetent – obviously not true. I would love to see her “debate” the Rotting Yam. She would drive them even nuttsier than Obama did.
Her intelligence does not outweigh her popularity, shadiness or sleaziness. She is as much of a snake oil monger as the great Orange one.
Stay off the new post on Kamala & Joe too. Let’s have your freak flag on the issue fly here only.
You-all must have seen, the New York Times calling on Biden to drop out: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html
Not only do they make all the points I woulda made, but it’s a little self-fulfilling for the Times to do this. We’re going to start hearing “Even the liberal New York Times says…”
And … the NYT shot and missed.
I’ve thought this through and I think I know what should happen. I’ll have a piece up by tomorrow morning.
“Don’t you ever get tired of being right all the time (Butch)?”
—The Sundance Kid
Can’t answer for Paul Newman, but I’m pretty comfortable with most of the time.
Look, we just passed 40 months since you last posted on the blog you’re using as your handle, and I forget whether you have a new one, so maybe I need to refresh your memory of what bloggers do. Sometimes, when a big event comes along, we try to come up with a fresh take on it to stimulate thought and conversation. It’s less important that it’s “right” than that it helps us understand what’s going on in the world. That Donald Trump was too busy lying to be funny and Joe Biden was too busy trying to regain his bearings to be wry and homespun (although I can imagine Will Rogers calling something “malarkey”) does absolutely slay my prediction. And how much weight I put on that prediction for this debate will be apparent to close readers.
“The.”
Let’s see how many paragraphs you can get out of that one.
Uninterested.
Once again Democrats prove to be their own worst enemy. Among other things, so much for keeping a united front.
I chalk it up to payback.
I hope Jimmy Carter is having a chuckle over this. Long ago, Biden – a young congressmen – stuck a knife in Jimmy’s back to make a name for himself. Now, he is on the table getting carved by his own. Knives out!!!
Nobody fs with Jimmy Carter! Nobody!
Are you confusing Carter with Teddy Kennedy? He was #3 in the list of people who blew up Carter’s reelection chances, after Ruhollah Khomeini and Paul Volcker.
I doubt that Biden is even in the top 100, but go ahead and make your case, Counselor. Start with what the hell event you’re talking about.
Umm, 1. Biden took down Carter’s cia appointee – he was doa and 2. Biden suggested Carter not run.
I dunno what the f you are talking about. Ask for my cites but don’t claim I am confused.
Now Jimmy being a good Christian and a great humanist has buried the hatchet.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/senator-biden-killed-carters-cia-nominee-over-mishandling-classified-documents/amp/ (Rather ironic)
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-knew-carter-was-in-trouble-in-1979-now-hes-in-the-same-boat-74c96cdb (flashback)
Is it merely a coincidence that Kamala’s husband who originates from New Jersey is a Jewish entertainment attorney with pro-Israel lobby, Zionist leanings practicing in Los Angeles??
It’s also Biden’s fault we got stuck with Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court.
Not really, although he was the one in charge and he did call the shots on what was permissible to admit. The Senate back then was completely unequipped to pursue this sort of “he said, she said” sexual harassment investigation. (As we know from the Kavanaugh nomination, it’s still mostly unfit, but at least it has improved.) Back then there were only men on the Committee — Dianne Feinstein, not much of an improvement as we know from her munging the Kavanaugh fiasco — was added to the Committee after the Anita Hill hearing.
Her allegations did come out at the time, but the committee members (who we can imagine probably knew that most Senate members had way more embarrassing secrets than this in their closets) were not keen on setting a precedent for digging into high officials sexual and sexist behavior. Biden reflected that ethic of the early 90s — soon to explode during the Clinton Administration — but he did let a lot of her information in. It was corroborating witnesses where he drew the line, and he has since said that he regrets it. But hanging the whole thing around his neck — given that it was (as usual) mostly a function of the illiberal bias in the composition of the Senate — is goofy.
This is a good recap of what was happening back in 2011, from NPR.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/28/1040911313/anita-hill-belonging-sexual-harassment-conversation
You’re up to your old tricks. Don’t post links without summarizing them, including copying and pasting no more than four paragraphs of relevant portions.
1. Taking down a CIA nominee over document mishandling doesn’t seem obviously improper, let alone making him a major Carter opponent. Also: National Review? Maybe they got a bone to pick or a reputation to sully?
2. Everyone know that Carter was in trouble, because Teddy Kennedy was running against him and had a lot of Democratic support, not only from Biden.
Your last paragraph is all insinuation and no cattle. If you’re saying that people are trying to push Biden out because they want someone more clearly Zionist, you’re not making much of a case. And normally a coincidence is between two things, A and B, not just A. Presenting “just A” is an insinuation.
Umm the links are pretty much self authenticating re subject matter. And, Biden actually suggested Carter not run – not merely just thought it. Carry on oh myopic booby one.
“… although he was the one in charge and he did call the shots on what was permissible to admit.” Right, that’s all he did, be I charge of the committee, mishandle the situation, allow a woman to be verbally savaged by his fellow committee members, then vote for Thomas, that’s all.
Nice recall. Keep on doin that rag.
First, how did you get the impression that Biden voted to confirm Clarence Thomas? He didn’t. Want more information? Or can you look it up yourself and acknowledge the truth?
Second, how do you imagine that a Committee Chair in 2011 could have prevented a woman accusing a Supreme Court nominee from being “verbally savaged by his fellow committee members” for what they either considered or pretended to believe was slander?
Seriously, spell out your knowledge of Senate rules of order. Or do you think that Biden could have wished them into the corn?
I suppose that Biden could have acted liked current-day Republican House Committee Chairs, but the Senate did and even today does have different rules and expectations.
Sleepy grandpa outta do his best lbj impression and bow out before the convention in Chicago.
https://bsky.app/profile/nycsouthpaw.bsky.social/post/3kw6eljrj272c (bluesky comment re Biden bowing out like lbj)
Did you forget about charging crack cocaine. He went all law enforcement. Who get screwed over charging re possession of crack cocaine. He was trumpy before trump.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/03/07/politics/biden-1993-speech-predators
I think the biggest mistake was just betting it all on Joe. I think that if Joe said something to the extent of “I said I’d run to beat Trump which I did and I am passing it off to another generation” or something to that extent, that would have been the best approach in hindsight. His position was even that he would just run one term.
Now in July, it is very last minute and even if they switch out Biden, there is a name recognition of the new candidate. We know Gavin in California, but other parts of the US don’t.
I think there should have been a contingency plan beyond, lets just force it forward. I honestly though that just muddling along Biden would be ok as the economy would be the sticking point. If the economy blew up then that would be a problem, but status quo would get him re-elected even if it is begrudgingly.
I never expected a very poor debate to be the main talking point.
Of course it’s a disaster. Democrats.
This is not a hindsight issue. The problem was that nobody had the courage, honesty and influence to say no.
I think that the “hindsight” comes in because few people foresaw something like this happening at (arguably) the worst possible time. Plenty of people though he shouldn’t run, but even most of them seem to be shocked.
I do think it is a hindsight issue just because of the simple fact of his age. Putting aside the debate, Biden is older and a myriad of health issues should have been a consideration.
So if something were to happen at least there is a contingency. Given what we are seeing publicly, it appears that there isn’t. (adequately anyway).
Given where things are, 4 months to go, and just logistical/monetary issues, there are not any good options but keeping Biden on the ticket and hoping for the best is what I would suggest and that is what seems like they will do.
Reacting and trying to replace him last minute would probably not be a great option compared to keeping him. Any replacement would take away precious campaign dollars to get him/her out in the public.
The benefit Trump has is everyone basically knows him and has an opinion. Same with Biden. Other potential candidates like Newsom/Whitmer/etc would just require more money in an already competitive race.
Umm Kamala was the contingency. That was the problem all along.
[Someone replied to a comment I left on Facebook today, which allowed me to find it and now to port it here.]
I would not be surprised to learn that he had been poisoned to some degree, intentionally or accidentally, and that he couldn’t get going until adrenaline kicked in. But I accept the explanation that he had had a cold because I’ve looked like that on occasion when I’ve had a cold (although less slender)
But if he did have a cold, then the first words out of his mouth had to be: “My fellow Americans, I feel lousy tonight because I’ve come down with a bad cold. So I’m not going to look and sound up to my normal standards. but it should be OK because I’m not too out of it to recognize a lie and call this guy our on it!
Then just truncate the rest of the opening — maybe just saying that “I’m debating with a con man, a rapist, and a pathological liar who endangered America by refusing to give back our war plans that he stole, and tried to prompt and deploy a paramilitary attack on our Congress. He is only out of jail today because he’s been coddled by judges he appointed and others who are bending over backwards to be fair. So I wish I were 100% tonight, but I was not going to cancel. Your turn, felon.”
His chummy advisors were asleep at the wheel and let him down.
What has this MAJOR miscalculation by party leadership done to down the ticket candidates? That is the math that should be most concerning.
How could you possibly calculate that? Yes, effects on down-ticket races are a concern, but one’s opinion about Biden pretty much covers both levels of contests. If he hurts one he hurts the other, and vice-versa.
Sleepy advisors advising sleepy joe. How apropos.
We’ve gone from malaise to deep sleep.
Joe gotta go.
Kamala Harris will be an unmitigated disaster for democrat candidates in down ticket races. EN said it.
Eric: You can slag Kamala on this post to your twisted misogynist’s heart’s content. But stay off the item I just posted on a Harris-Biden ticket or your comments here and elsewhere will follow the once I delete from there into the trash. Looking forward to coexisting — or to not coexisting!
He cannot bounce back from international travel after being stateside for 10 days.
25th Amendment scare!!!
No that would be ironic.
Wait one cotton picking minute.
Sleeping man said he was gonna be the transition president. Transition? Like into the after life while in office??
Queue Widespread Panic “Sleeping Man”
https://youtu.be/DbWTJ1kQY0U
Cue The Somnambulist Party.
Will this latest poll wake up the Somnambulist Party?
Another thing, this refrain of “When you get knocked down you pull yourself up again.”
1. You didn’t get knocked down, you fell.
2. This is not Joe Biden’s personal story of hardship and triumph, this is about the nation and the world. And it wasn’t us who fell.
He toppled over. Joe gotta go.
Happy 4th of July!!!
He has a cold but no cold medicine, he had jet lag without travel, no one told him he was too old.
Queue the Somnambulists and have a party. Catastrophe Ballet!
https://youtu.be/QDlJVQ44wfI
Knives out in Hollywood among Democratic donors.
The last straw?