2026 Chismes Open Thread: OC Races Shape Up!

Where the Women at? Jung – Traut – Shaw – Vargas –
Newman – Valencia – Strickland – Zahra – Kerr


Anaheim Dem Club meetings are a great place to catch up on the latest local political chismes. Between our special guest Supervisor Vince Sarmiento and various folks who dropped by from other Democrat Clubs to support us the other night, we heard a lot about who’s planning what for 2026. But this is a mere open thread, not a tome, so let’s get down to it!

Supervisor District 4

“So, who’s gonna run for Supervisor in North County’s District 4?” you ask, your impatience barely concealed. “Obviously district 1’s great Sarmiento and district 5’s worthy Katrina Foley are up for re-election, but who’s in line to take the place of the lethargic and mediocre (termed-out) Doug Chaffee?” I’d been hoping for Sharon Quirk-Silva, but she seems seriously sick of politics. But we have four answers for you, and it looks like it’ll be a real battle royale, one that’ll tear up the Parties but good!

The Democrats: Traut & Jung

Smooth, ambitious, and notoriously youthful, Buena Park’s Democratic Mayor Connor Traut jumped into the race with a splash this week, announcing his candidacy with the slogan “a new generation of leadership in Orange County,” and boasting of having already raised $100k. I looked through his long long list of endorsements, which seemed to be nearly every Democrat elected in his area, but noticed a few names oddly missing: Ashleigh Aitken (though Natalie R. was listed.) Fullerton’s Fred Jung and Ahmad Zahra (though Ahmad’s Fullerton ally Shana Charles was listed.) Sarmiento himself, although Chaffee and Foley have both endorsed Connor. Vince wants to talk to Connor more first and make sure he’s good on the issues Vince and his supporters care about. Good call.

Is there another north OC Democrat running for this seat? Why, yes, Fullerton’s Fred Jung, who is just the kind of independent, fiscally responsible, serious Democrat I tend to support (though I’m not sure if either Connor or Fred are what you or they would call “progressive.”) Fred isn’t concerned about Connor’s $100k, Fred has $300k. Partly through the magic of Korean-ness. And being Korean-American will really help him in this district, as will his record as Fullerton Mayor.

Connor’s endorsements? “That’s fine, nobody cares about endorsements.” Connor actually called Fred asking for his endorsement, not knowing he was running for the same seat. “But God bless you, you do what you have to do,” said Fred. “Are you going to try to get the DPOC endorsement?” queried Connor. “No,” laughed Fred, “I’m a proud Democrat but I don’t want anything to do with the DPOC.” That really threw Connor for a loop.

What about Zahra, Fred’s Fullerton nemesis, why didn’t he endorse Connor? Does that mean Zahra might run for Supervisor too? “No, I’ll tell you exactly why. When Connor called Ahmad, the first thing Ahmad asked was NOT why do you want to be Supervisor, what do you plan to do there, but ‘Do you get along with Fred Jung?’ ‘Sure, I think he’s great,’ Connor innocently responded.” WRONG ANSWER – no Zahra endorsement for Connor! LOL.

(Soon I WILL talk more in depth to both Connor and Fred about what they hope to accomplish as Supervisor, and we’ll probably have them both at the Club, but this is just a humble open thread, not a screed.)

The Republicans: Shaw & Vargas

Word is that Republican Tim Shaw (pictured at left, a LONG time ago) also has his eye on this seat. We had a soft spot for this La Habra conservative since he defied the kleptos on the OCTA and helped kill the Disney Streetcar a few years ago. Since then, some of his charm has worn off due to his years helping subvert public education on the OCBOE, but he IS an honest Republican. Which is why, with some reluctance, I supported him against Doug Chaffee for Supervisor 8 years ago, pissing off my Party one more time. Hey – being able to believe what someone says should be WAY up on the list of qualifications for office!

Then there’s the Brea Councilman who could be called a Perennial Candidate by now, Steve Vargas (below right.) Both crooked AND MAGA, Steve runs for this seat every four years and never makes it through the primary. If only his council colleagues would make him Mayor in 26, maybe he would do better with that as his ballot designation, pero no. Because, hearken:

The Sad & Parallel 2024 Stories of Vargas & Zahra.

Ambitious members of councils that have rotating mayors, councilmembers who want to try for higher office, strive to get named Mayor Pro-Tem the year before the next election, and then Mayor during the election, because silly voters are more likely to check off someone’s name that says “Mayor” next to it.

Except, sometimes your Council colleagues don’t like you, and sometimes for good reason, sometimes from knowing you up close and trying to work with you, they don’t think you SHOULD be in higher office, it’s bad enough you’re on Council, but they prefer not to lift a finger to help you rise higher where you could do even more damage.

And such is the sad case of both Vargas in Brea and Zahra in Fullerton. And both of them tried to do something about the problem this year. Brea voters didn’t see the name Vargas on their ballots, nor did Fullerton voters see Zahra’s name, but they were there – both men tried their best to defeat their uncooperative colleagues with candidates loyal to THEM. And both failed.

Vargas’ attempted coup was straightforward – he recruited two friends, one of whom (Bill Klovstad) was best known for having picketed gays in Orange with Fred Phelps and being the dad of Madcap Madison Miner. I’d see these challengers’ signs when I drove through Brea – “Time for a Change!” Except Brea voters preferred to keep their moderate incumbents Simonoff and Marick. So.. NO MAYOR VARGAS!

Zahra’s tactics in Fullerton were at once more baroque and more forlorn. There was the fake-Trumpy candidate Markovich meant to bleed votes from Linda Whitaker, Markovich who was busted by Spitzer for not even getting his own signatures. There was the strange guy they found to run as a fake Republican against Fred, and they even retrieved Jan Flory from somewhere to take on Nick Dunlap. THOSE attempts were forlorn. The only real, and legit, threat was the candidacy of Zahra-loyal Kitty Jaramillo, who came close to beating young Jung-backed Democrat Jamie Valencia… but not close enough. If Kitty had pulled it off, Ahmad would see “Mayor Zahra” in his near future… pero, again, no.

Zahra will certainly run for something, even hobbled without the honorific. My guess is the Assembly 65 seat, where Sharon is serving her last term. But let’s move on, this is only supposed to be an open thread, not some damn novel…

State Senate District 37

This north-county district is apparently open in ’26, where the corporatist-but-somewhat-decent Tom Umberg is termed out. But the seat has already drawn the attention of two powerhouse Democrat politicians – meteorically-rising Assemblyman Avelino Valencia and longtime Senator Josh Newman. Which one will the DPOC get behind is a good question! The County Party is crawling with folks who swear by Avelino night and day, but on the other hand LOTS of people love Josh. I bet that neither of them will get the required 60%, which’ll mean that Clubs like mine (where I haven’t been an officer since February) will be free to “support” one or the other. (Or if we lose our fight for our charter, I guess we could even “endorse” one or the other.)

I opposed Avelino when he first ran for Anaheim Council against real populist reformists, even wrote a scabrous song about him. Many of us in Anaheim still dream of having councilmembers who are not imposed on us by Disney, unions, and the DPOC. But he’s done good things in the assembly, many of them anti-corruption, he’s been friendly to me, and has spoken at our Club meetings unlike some of his many allies. As has Josh.

Josh’s Senate career has been beset by slings and arrows from the beginning, most of them undeserved. This blog backed him when he first ran in 2016 against a DPOC-backed carpetbagger from Irvine, and won. (Ironic that apparently BOTH Josh & Avelino will now have to move to run in district 37, but at least he has roots in Fullerton.) Josh was quickly recalled in 2018 by a gang of angry Republicans over being the “deciding vote” on a Gas Tax (how many Senators in a majority can actually be “the deciding vote?”) but he won his seat back from the ditzy Ling Ling Chang in 2020.

THEN CAME RE-DISTRICTING, Josh’s district 29 got moved eastward to Irvine and Orange, and he had to run this year in a district where nobody knew him. A big factor in his loss last month was a union – AFSCME 3299 – that spent over a million attacking him for one vote they didn’t like, and hence ended up electing Republican Steven Choi, who has a 6% record on supporting unions while Josh has 87%. Josh has voted 96% with that union for Christ’s sake! Hope AFSCME is proud of themselves. Now Josh is coming back to the area he’d originally represented, to get one last term. And everyone loves Josh, who has an ice cream truck, a bear suit, and a blimp.

Speaking of Choi, I never knew much about him except that he hates unions, loves Trump, mumbles a lot, and once faked a residence to run for assembly. But I heard an interesting story about him from a Republican recently. At some big OCGOP event he was asked what changes he would like to see in his Party, and he replied “Look around you. No Latinos, no Asians. Almost everyone here is white. We need to reach more minorities.” That’s right, the Asians you think you see in the GOP are the ones they run for office to get Asian votes!

HEY! If Avelino is running for Senate, that leaves an opening for Assembly District 69, doesn’t it? Where have you gone, Jose Moreno? A county turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo-hoo-hoo…

Other Races

State Senate District 36 Special Election

How many special elections has Janet Nguyen cost us taxpayers over the course of her whimsical and sleazy career? Well, here comes another one in March, in district 36, and Republican Tony Strickland, the tallest and tubbiest of Huntington Beach’s klepto-MAGAts, (who’s been in the State Senate before) has filed to take Janet’s place.

But what Democrat could go against him? What Democrat could run and win, in a special election, in HB and Little Saigon? No names come to mind. Derek Tran‘s victory against Michelle Steel was heroic and close, and he didn’t even have to worry about Huntington Beach. On the bright side, we Democrats wouldn’t actually be LOSING a seat, and Strickland won’t be able to do much in the super-minority, except maybe wave around some gavel with his belly bulging.

And the Surf City klepto-MAGAts can appoint another one of their own to fill Tony’s vacancy. Hell, maybe they can drag that snowflake Tito Ortiz back from Florida. Make him Mayor. Make the HB Clown Show truly complete.

CD-40

This was the only OC Congressional District that Democrats lost this year, with Joe Kerr coming in over 10% behind Republican Young Kim. The good news is the national party has now said that they’ll focus on that district, which they didn’t this time. The bad news is that Joe Kerr thinks that means they want him, and he filed to run again in ’26 as quickly as Michelle Steel did, and he fully intends to run again in ’26.

Could the expected 2018-style Blue Tsunami in reaction to Trump be strong enough to carry this undeserving, truth-challenged Fire Hero to victory this time? Nobody loves Joe Kerr except for some unions and his feisty wife China. Do Democrats HAVE anyone else there? When I mention it to Joe’s great 2024 primary opponent Allyson Damikolas, she sounds dismissive. Now I hear a chisme that she may be running for a position in the DPOC, and maybe that IS where she could do the most good. Whatever Allyson decides we’ll support her, because “her aim is true.”

Okay, this was not supposed to be a magnum opus, but a pinche Weekend Open Thread. So fire away!

About Vern Nelson

Greatest pianist/composer in Orange County, and official political troubadour of Anaheim and most other OC towns. Regularly makes solo performances, sometimes with his savage-jazz band The Vern Nelson Problem. Reach at vernpnelson@gmail.com, or 714-235-VERN.