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“Wetting his pants” – that is of course just a metaphor – a silly, childish metaphor for Dana’s frame of mind right now regarding his challenge from Debbie Cook. What he is literally doing, is sh*tting bricks.
My friends at the Debbie campaign aren’t wasting their precious money on internal polls, but we can gather a lot from the behavior of our esteemed opponent. And what we know is this:
1. Last month the Daily Pilot wrote, “Rohrabacher does not plan on running commercials of his own, using mailers, signs and the recognition he has from his years in office as campaigning tools instead. Still, he says he might change strategies and go into ’emergency mode’ if he thinks it’s necessary.”
2. Three weeks ago he ran a poll. (We know because folks he called told us.)
3. Immediately after the poll he sent out, in rapid succession, three cheesy mailers distorting Debbie’s record on the environment, taxes, and immigration (which we immediately and roundly debunked in full-page magazine ads, as well as a second upcoming TV ad) and now he’s putting up money to run some really comical TV spots…
Have you seen Dana’s TV spots yet? I know they’re running on MSNBC (Debbie’s been running hers on Fox and ESPN, so I end up seeing Dana’s and not Debbie’s!) I was surprised that they are not attack pieces, but instead very bare-bones, 30-second, Cinéma-vérité looks at the homely, ill-spoken folks who comprise Dana’s base in the district. Several elderly ladies – not the cute kind either – talk about how “Dana takes care of us,” and “takes care of us for the right reasons,” suggesting somehow that Debbie does it for the wrong reasons?
Then there looms onto the screen the frightening visage of HB 
councilwoman Cathy Green, the hard-right Republican and Catholic activist who has long been Debbie’s nemesis on the council, and has been described on this blog as a “nails-on-chalkboard harridan” who “speaks not so much like a kindergarten teacher as a kindergarten student.” Cathy clicks her tongue cattily, “I’ve worked with both Dana Rohrabacher and his opponent. Let’s just say I’ll be voting for Dana.” And then of course comes the inevitable footage of Dana, Rhonda and the triplets tromping across the sand near the Pier. I wish I could find a video of Dana’s ad; I’ll just say it doesn’t seem particularly convincing.
Especially when we’ve been running the following ad for a month or two:
Well, I really need to be getting back to work on my Spanish translation of Dana’s extremist anti-immigration record versus Debbie’s common-sense, humane position, so I’ll check you Juicers later!
UPDATE, Monday afternoon 9/13
Thanks to the invaluable F&E Fan, we now have the YouTubes of Dana’s ads:
#1
OK, the one with Cathy Green is not up on YouTube yet, I’ll keep looking for it but this second one is almost as bad:
#2
and Debbie’s new “ASTEROIDS!” response to his attack mailers:
;”>
As usual, you’re full of crap, Nelson. She’ll get creamed.
We shall see, JN. It is going to be close.
In any case we’ve already got a big victory party planned Nov. 4. I’ll be posting more details a couple days in advance! (Worst come to worst it’ll at least be an Obama victory party!)
Gerry Schipske was way more formidable (she almost beat Steve Horn–she came within several hundred votes), had national i.d., was/is smarter than Debbie Cook on all the issues, had awesome campaign experience, claimed she’d be the one to finally crush Dana, just like Loretta did with Dornan…etc., and look what Dana did to her, totally beat her. Go back and read the OC Weekly piece on Schipske from that year–it sounds exactly like all the stuff folks are saying about Cook today.
Hmm… Nothing against Gerri, but that’s sure not how I remember 2002! You must be in Long Beach or something.
Dana’s hokey commercial you describe is available on YouTube here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_FHJG0AQ5k
There is also a second ad here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjnHYRynbJY
Both are pretty bad, showcasing well-known local Republicans.
I don’t recall Rohrabacher ever doing TV ads.
Don’t worry folks El Luchador will settle this with my internet searching skills.
I found the article.
Here are some direct quotes from the 2002 OC Weekly Article on Schipske:
(Talking about Rohrabacher) “Word is that his congressional seat is vulnerable this year.”
“It’s a much more moderate district than Rohrabacher has run in before,” Schipske observes.”
“But Rohrabacher’s so-called vulnerability has been the word in every election year for more than a decade. For challenger after challenger—most recently, Patricia Neal, Sally Alexander and Ted Crisell—it has been the last word of their political careers.”
“Schipske draws some of her viability from two previous losses (both by less than 1 percent) to other supposedly unassailable Republicans: Assemblyman Steve Kuykendall in 1996 and Congressman Steve Horn in 2000.”
“Schipske thinks Rohrabacher’s refusal to debate is telling—in more ways than one. “It’s a sign that he’s most concerned,”
“Just like Bob Dornan,” she says, “Dana Rohrabacher’s façade is starting to crack.”
Hey Vern,
The two article are pretty similiar.
Seems to me like Adam Smith was just about right on about what they said about Schipske…pretty impressive memory for someone who misspelled her first name.
Vern, can you tell us how you remember 2002? I was in the Army back then fighting the war on terror for all of you.
That being said I think this race is going to be close. I’m guessing she gets about 46-47%.
Sure, Luchador and Adam, no difference between 2008 and 2002, no difference between Gerri and Debbie.
Vern, can you tell us how you remember 2002? I was in the Army back then fighting the war on terror for all of you.
Thanks for your service, Luchie. You must have been in Afghanistan. That DID have something to do with the War on Terror. You should write a little about your experiences here some day.
How do I remember 2002? I remember it as a slow inexorable drive to unprovoked unnecessary invasion of Iraq, which I resisted every way I could. Including trying to talk sense to my Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, who only responded with repeated printed-out Administration propaganda. 2002 is when I made up my mind to help anyone who would run against him. We’ve got our best chance now, and I hope to be laughing at Adam and JN in less than a month. (If not, well hey we did our best!)
*Dana is an incumbent. Debbie Cook has spent lots of money on TV.
We think Dana will prevail.
Hey Winships, you good wealthy moderate post-partisan Corona Del Mar couple, why don’t you make a contribution and help her overcome this unworthy incumbent?
Here you go: http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18872
Thank you, Ron and Anna!