.
.
.
(Left to right by row): Top: Arturo Ferreras (4), Ana R Martinez (5). Mark Lopez (5) Leonard Lahtinen (1) Jose Moreno; Bottom: Lucille Kring (4) Denise Barnes (1) Stephen Faessel (5). Jordan Brandman (3), Steve Lodge (1). Not pictured: a dozen or so others.
With the first week of filing complete, the four Anaheim City Council races have shaped up well-enough to start to handicap them. And, as many people expected, the array of candidates looks favorable to the pro-Disney slate due to the likelihood of splitting the vote in most contests. I’m getting some of my information for the line-up below from Matt Cunningham’s blog, which despite its wild inaccuracies in analysis and facts not easily verified, tends to be fairly reliable on basic facts about those the City Clerk lists as running for office.
The first thing to know is that there are two de facto slates — but most candidates are on neither. The candidates who seem to be on Mayor Tom’s”Tait Slate” are in amber (essentially orange) and those on the Disney/Anaheim Chamber of Commerce/Pringle Ring/SOAR slate — let’s just call it “Disney Slate” — are in olive (essentially green.)
The second thing to know is: don’t trust that these lists are final until the last person leaves the Anaheim City Clerk’s office at or after at 5:00 p.m on Friday Aug. 12. The stakes are that big –and the chicanery is likely to follow suit.
The third thing to know is that not all of the candidates are going to be serious. We’ll try to go through them and weed them out.
District 1
-
Denise Barnes 501: 5/20; 410: 6/23
-
Mark Daniels 501: 7/14; 410: 7/14
-
Freddy Fitzgerald (Carvajal) 501: 5/20
-
Leonard Lahtinen 501: 5/23; 410: 6/29
-
Steve Chavez Lodge 501: 4/1, am’d 4/13; 410: 4/1, am’d 4/13, am’d x2 5/16
-
Orlando Perez 501: 12/14; 410: 12/14, am’d 12/31, am’d x2 1/15; 460: 2/1
-
Angel Vanstark 501: 6/28; 410: 7/12
Mayor Tait appears to be backing community activist Denise Barnes (who, despite her last name, is at least half-Latina, and despite being at least half-Latina, is a Republican.) She spoke against the hotel giveaways at the last City Council meeting and made a good impression, but I know little more about her. Two candidates have a conceivable hold on the DAPS slate — Republican Steven Albert “Chavez” Lodge of Murietta or so, and Democrat Leonard Lahtinen of the North Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees. My guess is that Disney & Co. don’t actually know which candidate they will ultimately support (presuming that it’s one or the other.) They may want to see whether Disney critics will destroy Steve Lodge once he gets into the race. (Note: yes, we will –and with good reason and basis.) I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lodge be told, On the Waterfront style, that this wasn’t his race, and not end up on the ballot. The other Republican in the race is Orlando Perez — and perhaps he’s the stealth candidate. (I mean, he’s even named “Orlando”!)
The other three candidates are all from the left. Mark Daniels is a big supporter of the Mayor’s who speaks often at Council, but does not seem to have an obvious source of fundraising. Freddy Fitzgerald Carvajal is an appealing young man who was the last candidate turn in a “410 form” (related to fundraising) but is now firmly in the race. Angel Vanstark is a young leftie from Anaheim who has recently returned , and whom OJB can now report is an apparent exclusive is actually “VanStark.” Daniels, Fitzgerald-Carvajal, and VanStark will likely draw from the pro-Disney Lahtinen (who is likely to get the Democratic officeholders and party endorsement because they are on the left, but also from Barnes because they are not Disney-Slatists. Good news for Lodge, I suppose. The bad news for Lodge is that Daniels in particular really knows his stuff when it comes to kleptocracy and may devote himself largely to blowing Lodge out of the water. Connor Traut is always, always, always a possibility to jump into the race, no matter what he or anyone else claims.
District 3
-
Jordan Brandman 501[1]: 2/14/13; 501[2]: 2/23/16; many others
-
Linda Lobatos 501: 3/15
-
Dr. Jose F. Moreno 501: 3/29; 410: 3/29, 4/30, 4/30
-
Robert Nelson 501: 7/8; 410: 7/8
-
Jennifer Rivera 501: 5/23
Until recently, this looked like a clear one-on-one match-up between incumbent Jordan Brandman of the Disney Slate (seeking to represent what was drawn as a majority-Latino district) and Dr. Jose Moreno of the Tait Slate, who will be hampered by two candidates — Brandman’s friend Linda Lobatos and the mysterious Jennifer Rivera (not the tragically deceased singer) splitting the Latino vote. Then things got interesting with the insertion of a Republican candidate, Robert Nelson, into the race. Cunningham seems convinced that this is a dirty trick on the part of the Tait camp. He might well think so, given that Rivera’s running is a dirty trick (last employed against John Leos four years ago) on the part of the anti-Moreno camp. (Lobatos will say that she’s serious about the race, just as she was serious about her race against Al Jabbar against a Republican for the Anaheim Union High School District two years ago. At some point, if she hasn’t already done so, she will hopefully figure out that she’s just taking votes away from progressive Dems and empowering Republicans and anti-progressive Dems.) But my sense is that Nelson has simply figured out that in a race between four Democrats (at least three of whom seem to be actual people), a Republican has the chance to come into the race and steal away the most Latino and most liberal district in Anaheim. Vote splitting: it can do some weird things to people.
District 4
-
Christopher Dunshee 501: 6/29
-
Arturo Ferreras 501: 2/25; 410: 6/08
-
Lucille Kring 501: 3/2; 410: 5/6, am’d 6/21
- Jonathan Meeker 501: 8/1
-
Joe Moreno 501: 4/25
-
Robert Williams 501: 11/30
Only Tait Slate Democrat Arturo Ferreras and Disney Slate Republican Lucille Kring have filed 410 forms to indicate that they intend to be living, breathing, fundraising, serious candidates. Of the others: I know nothing about Christopher Dunshee. I’ve been told that Robert Williams is an eloquent and impressive African-American Republican — who nevertheless gave a speech on his own behalf at a Democrats of North Orange County event this past weekend. (So either he’s a Democrat after all, or pretending to be one, or the DNOC just forgot to ask him, or the DNOC decided not to follow the rules. I’m not going to rank-order those possibilities.) As for Joe Moreno, this guy is a walking dirty trick, who apparently exists in the political world only to convince people who don’t examine him closely that he is actually Anaheim’s bright Latino civil rights leader Dr. Jose Moreno.
If Joe Moreno remains on the ballot, it will be a good opportunity for flyers to be posted all over the Fourth District saying something like:
DON’T BE FOOLED! The “Joe Moreno” on your ballot is NOT “Dr. Jose F. Moreno,” but someone pretending to be so that you will vote for him rather than ARTURO FERRERAS, and will therefore elect anti-Latino racist Lucille Kring. DON’T HELP RACIST KRING BY VOTING FOR THIS FAKE MORENO. VOTE FOR FERRERAS!
But that may not be necessary, because Moreno’s employer — with whom I’m told that he still works, but that’s secondhand information — not only went after him when he ran against Tom Daly in 2012 despite being a county employee, but they ALSO went after his co-worker Paula Williams who was trying for a non-partisan seat on the Fullerton City Council/ So they won’t allow him to run while he is employed. If someone forces the issue early enough this time — and bet on that happening — I expect that he’ll withdraw from the ballot to keep his job, just like he abandoned the race against Daly in 2012. It would be nice to hear Kring condemn this dirty trick.
[ADDED 8/3]: Jonathan Meeker, about whom this corner of OJB knows nothing.
District 5
-
Stephen Faessel 501: 3/28; 410: 3/28
-
Janette Lister 501: 7/19
-
Mark Lopez 501: 4/13; 410: 4/25
-
Ana R, Martinez 501: 1/28
- Donna Acevedo-Nelson 501: 7/25
- Thomas Anderson 501: 8/3
- Sandra Angel? Not yet, anyway!
UPDATE, 7/25: Adding Sandra Angel — an unhinged-sounding Trumpublican — to the list per this post by Matt Cunningham. Who does it hurt? Probably takes Republican votes away from both Faessel and Lopez. Comparatively, it helps Donna and Ana R. — but there isn’t likely enough support for both of them. Can Ana R. be convinced to exit the race? Probably only if Donna shows enough fundraising that Ana R. sees her candidacy as futile. Time’s a wastin’!
UPDATE, 8/8: Adding Thomas Anderson, who filed his 501 on August 3. Anyone know anything about him? More importantly, how come Matt Cunningham, who seems to get fed inside info as soon as it pops up within the City Government, hasn’t written anything about him? Is he someone’s stealth candidate?
ORIGINAL TEXT: The Tait Slate is putting up Latino Republican Mark Lopez, Assistant Chief of Staff to Supervisor Shawn Nelson. The Disney Slate is putting up Stephen Faessel, who will be getting those nice Disney-related donations and that nice independent expenditure money. I have been told that Faessel is a Republican, but haven’t verified it. Of the others, I can find nothing about Janette “Red” Lister except that she exists on Facebook. (Note that a relevant part of the City website isn’t reporting results right now.) Ana R. Martinez is a Democrat who would probably take votes away from Lopez, but doesn’t likely have the fundraising capacity to win. This is all the more true if Donna Acevedo Nelson — who is incidentally the wife of OJB’s owner, Publisher, and Editor-in-Chief Vern — gets into the race. Each of them seem likely to take votes away from Lopez — but don’t be shocked if another white guy gets into this race before filing closes.
Conclusion
In case you haven’t done the math, each person on the Tait Slate is Latino (although Barnes’s surname is not) and each person on the Disney Slate is non-Latino. (The sole possible exception is Lodge, but despite his mother’s maiden name he has not been viewed as Latino before he suddenly hit on the strategy to publicly identify as much, implicitly though the name “Chavez,” in 2012 — and in other contexts than elections still isn’t.) I would have bet good money prior to filing against the choice between the slates being so blatant — but here we apparently are!
Tait doesn’t need a full slate. He only needs two winners. Reform supporters should back Barnes and Moreno. The other districts are a waste of time and possibly resources.
You may be right about 5, but I think that Kring is vulnerable in 4.
Ferreras is a well-known community leader — enough so for Martin Lopez (who had announced his intent to run) to have deferred to him.
Faessel seems like the least objectionable of the Disney Slate (unless perhaps one includes Lahtinen on it, and you’d probably disagree with me if so) and Lopez seems like the least compelling of the Tait Slate. I’d be happy to see Donna or Ana win, but … fundraising.
4 is chock-full of white old-timers who will vote and many of whom will find Kring’s weltanschauung quite acceptable. Of course SOAR will pour in $$ to protect their asset.
I have never even heard of Ferreras before.
It won’t cost Tait anything to have his picture taken with these others but at the end of the day districts means slate candidacies mean a whole lot less and resources can and should be focused where they will really help get the four vote majority.
Not really “chock-full” — big Latino population which will come out this year — and remember that Kring’s jaw-dropping blunder of supporting STRs to the last is going to destroy her, as 4 (along with 3) is the most directly affected. Those anti-STR people mean business — and they’ll get that Jordan (if he stays on Council) is NOT a reliable anti-STR vote once the election is past.
Yes, but the pro STR people are much more likely to actually help fund her, maybe even do an IE.
BTW, you’d be surprised how many older middle-aged and real old people still live in my neighboehood.
I accept that there are many of them. But: (1) the district is larger than your neighborhood alone and (2) I’ll bet that they’ll have LOTS OF EMPATHY for the people already plagued by STRs — especially given that with the wrong Council majority elected they themselves could be plagued as well. You’re not THAT far from Disneyland.
I think my neighborhood is HIGHLY representative of District 4. We have lots of Asians and Latinos house-dwellers, many of whom won’t be voting.
As you move to the southeast there are more apartment-dwelling Latinos who won’t or can’t vote.
Unfortunately, I like Kring’s chances.
I guess we’ll know in 13 weeks.
We’re counting on this Father Ferreras to get these Latinos’ asses out to vote, whoever can. Isn’t he sposta be some kinda leader? I know Martin Lopez would have.
Is the filing closed yet? I regretfully stumble across that anaheim blog the other day. The pure garbage splashed there regarding dr morenos preferences for the ToT funds by cunningham is freakish. diverging completely away from Conservative thought he promotes corporate welfare while deriding a plan to mitigate the negative effects of this welfare that gives residents a lift up.
It closes August 12.
Donna already pulled papers, and is filing her 501 today. Basically there was nobody in this district she or I felt we could enthusiastically support.
Faessel is SOAR.
Mark Lopez is a nice young conservative, who we don’t feel would know how to represent the vast majority of working families in the district, even if Tom was impressed with him.
Ana just showed up at Los Amigos meetings once she realized these “district elections” were happening; she just moved from Orange, and really doesn’t speak much English.
“Red” Lister we just found out was running after Donna had already made her decision, she’s another nice lady who was a UNITE-HERE person but I hear had a falling out with them.
Donna’s been putting out broadcasts from her page for a month. https://www.facebook.com/acevedo4anaheim/?fref=ts&ref=br_tf
Yes, Faessel is in SOAR — and yet I’ll bet you’d agree that he’s less objectionable than Brandman, Kring, or Lodge, which was the only assertion I made. He’s only a likely rather than a proven disaster.
We need to figure out how we’ll cover reporting (as opposed to editorial) on the District 5 race. The conflict is big enough that I can just leave it alone if you want — and what you do is up to you, it being your blog.
The guy is obviously a total puppet or he wouldn’t be running under the Klepto baner.
He’s only better than Kring or Brandman because some people still believe that they will do the right thing once in awhile, and that there is a Santa Claus. He’s exactly like Lodge in that you don’t expect anything good. But I bet Faessel never beat up anyone for jollies, so he’s got that going for him.
Lodge’s FATHER’s name is CHAVEZ. (not mom’s maiden name) Dad abandoned the family when Steve and brother Roger were young, Mom remarried a guy named Lodge who raised the boys and they took his name. Denise Barnes is sharp as a tack and a decent human being who loves the neighborhood she has spent decades volunteering to make better. i can see why Tait has backed her. My friendship for Mark Daniels is far from a secret, there ate many areas where we disagree, some BIG ones, but he is a good man who loves his community, so I am stuck there. Ultimately I am still an alternate for Central Cmte so Dems are off the menu for me, despite my revulsion for many of the Pub candidates in upticket races. Sigh…
Faessel is believed to be all in for the Disney-bots, or at least will do as Kris tells him to do, but Steve has not been part of SOAR. When SOAR first began he ducked, and remained out of the mud fight. He likes their events, but does not take a stand one way or the other. I wish I could imagine him standing up to them on anything, he is a nice guy who really, really, really wants to be liked at ALL TIMES. Otherwise he and I go way back and I am lying low on that battle. Yes to my knowledge he is a Pub. Mark Lopez is sharp, well spoken, carries himself with polish and will do well at anything he does. And my love for Mrs. Nelson knows no bounds, and i wish she would not do this to herself and open herself to the abuse we know is coming, but i also understand (and respect) her deep seated need to make sure things get said that she believes need to be discussed in a campaign.
I am sorry Mr. Zenger, I disagree with your assessment, as I believe Kring is TOAST.
Zenger, I get your view of the District, but keep in mind who is ACTIVE. While the white folk who paid off the house long ago and yell at kids to get off the damn lawn may still represent a chunk of the neighborhood, whether they show up to vote this year is a serious crap shoot, given neither candidate in the upticket races will get their Geritol all shook up. Meanwhile the anti-STR folk are a force to be reckoned with, they are MANY, (can put 100 people on the street which is a HARD thing to do in this world) they are organized, (cohesive campaign with t-shirts and lawn signs and lots of meetings and communication and all of that takes coordination they seem to exhibit beautifully. Also their leadership like the Robbins family is a force to be reckoned with.) Oh yeah, AND they are MAD AS HELL at Lucille, both for the STR vote AND the hotel issues. As far as Kring’s “fans” the STR owners gain nothing from Lucille, the vote is over and won’t be brought back. They will try litigation, which they don’t need her for, and good luck, their arguments at last meeting for rights the City violated makes the case for their opponents. They gain nothing by spending on Lucille, why blow the money?
Disney/SOAR might back Lucille, except hardcore SOAR insiders detest her. Really detest her, She did the same flip flopping crap in 2007-08 that created SOAR over the SunCal oddity, and while you and I and the OJB readership (all 11 of us) have come to understand what a farce that really was, the true believers are still convinced Lucille was going to “harm” the Resort with her alliance with Frank Elfend. She was at least as obnoxious to them in the day as they are to us today, and not everyone forgets that. Disney would be better off co-opting one of the lesser known candidates or sitting out District 4 to see who wins and then sidle up to the victor. Just as i think to myself SURELY they must be done with the smash-and-grab game for a while, and don’t NEED the negative image of association with her, i take it back, because what we saw 2 weeks ago was beyond anything even my jaded mind could have conjured. PLUS there are the negatives on Lucille. Seriously, one could easily do a “greatest hits” video of Lucille, just stringing together prime pieces of her own statements at Council meetings, to hang her with. At some point the smart money has to know that is not a good investment when they can start fresh with someone else. PLUS SOAR is still out door to door bugging us on Saturdays trying to sell the public on what a great thing it is to be fleeced by the local corporate culture and if they are STILL at that even after they got their freebies then the majority must be really hammered in the phone surveys so at what point do they sacrifice the negatives of Kring to focus on saving Brandman AKA NOT having Jose Moreno in their faces?
Speaking of District 3, Robert Nelson is NOT a Tait plant. He is a good guy who believes he can make a difference and is determined to not hand our central Anaheim neighborhood to The Left without at least a fight. While not a big party GOP guy he is a Republican to the bone marrow (and the flagpole cemented into his front yard) and thinks yes the Dems are going to split the vote and thinks people should have a choice. He is also one of my best friends, and I like Dr. Moreno as a person despite our opposing views on political issues, so I am damned if I do on this one too. So many conflicts, so little time…
What is the old proverb? May you live in interesting times…
Kring is Toast ? From recent Council episodes, more like scrambled eggs. The reflexive untruths, then having to be corrected by staff on items, is getting old.
Yes, but since when is veracity a necessary quality in an Anaheim elected?
I think you proceed with the assumption that Moreno needs every vote he can get and since it’s non-partisan party splits are a lot less likely. However Robert’s presence is bad for Brandman since there are probably a number of people who will vote for the “safe” name.
Anaheim Mexi here:
Ferreras is Filipino, not Latino (Remember all that hay thrown Galloway’s way?)
Lodge is Latino, too. (Horrible politics and Hispandering aside)
Keep this in your notes for the next “White people explain the Latino vote” OJB post!
Thanks for that tip on Ferreras. I couldn’t talk to him because he left a bloody kleenex on the floor at Council. But I’m sure he’s okay.
Hi, Gabriel. Thanks for the correction on Ferraras. My casually-asked sources apparently thought otherwise.
Lodge had not been *Latino-identified* — publicly and, for all I know, privately either — until it became in his political interest to suddenly do so six years ago. That’s explained in a parenthetical within the conclusion, which you’d have seen if you’d only read a little further. Let us know if you want this “reading further” notion covered in a “Smart and Attentive People Explain Journalism 101 to Poseur Pendejos” post.
P.S. Congrats on the paying gig from Gustavo. You are right just enough of the time to make me happy about the news, on balance.
P.P.S. To save time before Gustavo gets here to defend you, piss off, Gustavo.
Hi, I would like to make some corrections to your article.
1. I’m an independent, not a democrat.
2. My legal name is Angel Toshiko VanStark (no space).
3. I moved back to be with my family after a relative passed away, not with the intention to run — hence the last minute filing. (Look out for a press release with more details!)
Thanks; I’ll make the corrections.
Added Jonathan Meeker in 4; starting to regret taking a tip from Cunningham re Sandra Angel in 5. Was she chased off because she’s a threat to Faessel?
Added Thomas Anderson in District 5. Anyone know anything about him? Nothing even from Cunningham’s inside sources! Stokes my curiosity….