Wildstar’s IN for Governor! And Other Filings and Schatzle-Dumar News

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Some may call his candidacy for Governor a pipe dream.  Nickolas Wildstar will respond: “So?”

I come bearing good news for Libertarian Party die-hards: you’ve found your party’s candidate for Governor and you can stop looking around now.  His name is Nickolas Wildstar and he’s at the top of the OC Registrar of Voters Candidate Filing Log for Feb. 13 (and probably for a long time after); he’s a black rapper from the 626, an apparent Rand Paul follower, and if I catch his drift an apparent cannabis devotee — and if I can’t convince you to vote for a Democrat he’s certainly going to be preferable to any Republican on the ballot.  Thank you; you’re out of the primary!  Just say “Nickolas Wildstar” and campaigns will cross you off of their call list until Flag Day!

For the rest of us: yesterday was the first update of the OC Registrar of Voters online Candidate Filing Log — that link will bring you to the current day’s report for the 2018 primary, not necessarily the one posted on the evening of Feb. 13 — so let’s take a look at the day’s developments.  Plus, some further thoughts — and some explanation and reconsideration — on the likely displacement of Karen Schatzle from the AD-68 race to the CA-39 race, about which DPOC voters seem not to care, brought about by the filing of Michelle Duman.

Let’s take on the last topic first — and if you’re not interested in intraparty squabbling, just skip this and the next two paragraphs.  If the CA-39 runoff turns out to be between Deputy District Attorney Schatzle and one of the Republicans — Bob Huff, Young Kim, Shawn Nelson, Andrew Sarega, Steve Vargas, Winky, Blinky, and BOB, all I will be able to do is to point at people in the party and laugh.  Democrats should want Schatzle in the AD-65 race against Stephen Choi for many reasons — including that it will force Republicans to spend time, effort, and money defending that seat, which — breaking news, folks! — they will not have to do with Choi.  (Yes, Choi will continue to campaign and more importantly to raise money, but that will be towards another later run for a higher office.  He’s not worried about Duman, and — maybe barring a #metoo issue, though in this district probably not even then — the track record in the district says that even with an anti-Trump bump he won’t have to be.  But that’s water over the dam — having decided that the path to AD-68 is not clear, she’s out of that race and there’s no further damage done by Duman’s run here.

Whatever damage is to be done will happen in my home district of CA-39 — but even there things may be less bleak than I supposed.  Schatzle’s main competition, given the glut of Democratic candidates, is probably the three main Republicans — Young Bob Shawn, as someone named them — and Schatzle needs to bump off at least two of them.  That means that her fire will be aimed at them rather than at Jay Chen, Gil Cisneros, and whoever else has a chance there.  That’s good for Democrats as it increases the likelihood that one of ours can get past all but one of theirs.  And, if it does end up being an R v. Schatzle runoff, I’m pretty sure that my party members will see that we’re better off with the NPP.  (No party rule would stop any Central Committee member from endorsing individually in such a race — and if there were a problem I would suggest that it be brought between a tribunal of members of Indivisible CA-39, because they certainly can tell Scheiss from Shinola.)

As an aside to DPOC and CDP members who have been freaking out: I have an absolute right to present my honest analysis on this or any race.  I have a right to say what I think is tactically or strategically wise or dumb.  I do not have a right to endorse against a Democratic candidate in a partisan race or an endorsed Democrat in a non-partisan race, nor do I plan to do so.  Obviously, Vern — who is not a Central Committee member — feels that he can do so, but anyone who thinks that I can control Vern on the blog HE owns is — to understate it kindly — mistaken.  The DPOC has recently passed a policy — which contrary to all that is holy in rules and procedure was not attached to the agenda AND not distributed in written form to the voting membership at the time — in which for the first time it grants itself the power to remove even elected members of its Central Committee for reasons of which it is the sole judge as to due process.  If it didn’t want people to become fatalistic over the consequences of speaking freely as part of the DPOC, it shouldn’t have done that — and certainly not so underhandedly.  And as for my suggesting that anti-Democratic Libertarians vote for Nickolas Wildstar in the gubernatorial primary rather than for one of the Republicans — yeah, sure, remove me for ThAT.  I’d like to be tried before a panel of actual major party political strategists, please.

SO WHAT’S HAPPENED SINCE THEN?

For state offices, not much of interest is going on, except for the 4th District State Board of Equalization seat, into which I’ve suggested that Gil Cisneros or Andy Thorburn should switch.  Two frequent filers, Greg Raths and “Sudden Mexican Syndrome” survivor Ken Lopez-Maddox, have entered the race — which suggests that the seat is worth holding, right?  I’m really shocked that Raths is not so far showing signs of running for Mimi Walters’s seat in CA-45, for which he’s competed before — but never against a fragmented Democratic field.  Maybe he’s just lying low — or maybe he just has a real hankering to equalize things.  The other OCROV-listed candidates are: Republican JOHN F. KELLY and Democrat DAVID DODSON.  Add Raths and Lopez-Maddox and this is tall dry fine grass through which Cisneros or Thorburn could easily mow.

We’ll eventually cover all of the races, but for now let’s act like we’re candidates and stick to Congress:

39th Congressional (former Royce)

The only news since Friday is that MAI KHANH TRAN has indeed entered the race.  She does not have a party listed, but presumably that’s just an oversight by the registrar. If she has decided to go NPP herself — well, bless her heart.  Tran joins Janowitz and Jammal as the only major Democrats on the OCROV board — Chen has presumably filed in LA already, and is presumably wise enough to get a ballot statement here in OC as well — but has leap-frogged them by actually paying her filing fee.  (I don’t think that that alone keeps her from switching, though; as I recall it’s filing the declaration of candidacy that marks the point of no return.)  [Note to Leggett, Lee, Troutman, and Alexander: yes this means that you are not major Democrats.  Get out of this race.  If your vote total is the difference that keeps a Democrat out of the Top Two, you will be blamed forever.]  No sign as of Wednesday afternoon from the deci-billionaires, which suggests that they are perhaps being well-advised.

Schatzle’s condition remains the same: still no movement in AD-68, nor do I expect there will be while there’s one and only one Democrat in the race.  Among the viable Republicans, only Young Kim and Andrew Sarega have filed signatures in lieu; beyond them only Steve Vargas has even taken them out.

45th Congressional (Walters)

As of Tuesday, Republican Mimi Walters and unknown NPP John Graham had filed signatures in lieu.  Democrats KIA HAMADANCHY, DAVE MIN, and KATIE PORTER had done the same.  Only Porter had paid her filing fee.  On Wednesday, Porter became the first to commit unalterably to the race — meaning that OJB will oppose her in the primary and in any runoff against a Democrat, as promised.

46th Congressional (Correa)

Democrat LOU CORREA has filed his signatures in lieu,; Democrat ALAN MARK SCHLAR has not.  The NPP, ED RUSHMAN, has filed them.  Republican RUSSELL RENE LAMBERT just up and paid his filing fee outright.  Republicans DAVID TRAN, BENJAMIN SAUL GARRETT, MARIA ARLINA SLATER, ADAM OROZCO, and JEFFREY JOHNSTON have neither filed signatures nor paid.  I’m frankly shocked that there’s this much interest in running against Correa.  Maybe the Republicans are trying to arrange a D-on-D runoff, in which Correa may have to spend more money than he would against a Republican?  Or is that preposterous?  Hmmm….  Doesn’t matter: that money would come from Chevron and Philip Morris anyway….

47th Congressional (A. Lowenthal)

Congressman Lowenthal doesn’t have to file in OC, so there’s no news to … wait, what’s this?  KAREN LEE SCHATZLE took out papers in this Congressional race to0, and I missed it?  Yes she has — as has Republican DAVID MICHAEL CLIFFORD — he HE has turned in HIS signatures in lieu!  Neither of them has a chance here, so welcome to the race!

48th Congressional (Rohrabacher)

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (who has filed his signatures in lieu) is joined by two Republicans on the board: STELIAN ONUFREI (who has filed his signatures in lieu) and CHASE GEISER (who has not.)  A Libertarian, BRANDON REISER, has not filed his sigs.  The real action is on the Democratic side, where OMAR SIDDIQUI has files his signatures and paid his fee.  Signatures have also been filed by HANS KEIRSTEAD and  TONY ZARKADES; Democrats MICHAEL KOTICK and BOYD ROBERTS are on the board, having taken out signature forms but not filed them.

49th Congressional (former Issa)

Two Democrats are on the OC board in this district (where San Diego candidates need not file if they wish): MIKE LEVIN has paid his fee without bothering with collecting signatures in lieu — very “grass roots” of him! — and SUPRIYA CHRISTOPHER is on the board.  Republicans on the board are BRIAN MARYOTT (who has paid his fees), DAVID ARNOLD (nada), JOSHUA L. HANCOCK (nada), and CHRISTINA M. BORGESE (filed signatures).

And that will be enough for today!  I will probably put any interesting updates on these races over the next few days in comments, while I put together a form for all races and (sigh) adding in filings from the other three overlapping counties.