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Cisneros, happy to continue clogging up CA-39, and mall cop Republican Congressional incumbent David Valadao, who after the update is safe from a serious challenge.
UPDATE, 3/5: Cisneros, convinced that he too belongs on the junior varsity squad because a dozen Latino elected officials can’t be wrong, is staying put. Democrats continue to face the Demopocalypse clustercrash here in the frozen north. Vern, please revert to the original photo.
ORIGINAL POST: From Scott Lay’s The Nooner, Sunday March 4:
Congressional candidate Emilio Huerta (D) dropped off the race against David Valadao (R), reports Rory Appleton in the Fresno Bee. That gives the DCCC five days to find another candidate. Look for a candidate in another crowded district who has raised significant campaign cash to be arm-twisted to change to the Valadao district, such as Gil Cisneros in CA39 or T.J. Cox in CA10. It’s been talked about previously, although Dolores Huerta was working overtime to keep other Democrats from jumping in.
I’ll admit that, as I sometimes do, I wrote Scott Lay weeks ago to check out a hare-brained idea of mine dealing with a district in another part of the state. I wanted Gil Cisneros to leave the CA-39 race to take on Devin Nunes, whose competition seemed weak (and insufficiently Latino) to me. Scott’s view on that was negative, with a detailed explanation that was persuasive but that I won’t recount here, so I stopped promoting that idea here.
Scott did say, though, that there was a district next door, one with a less popular incumbent, David Valadao, that would be a great fit for Cisneros if he wanted to switch races. (I doubt that I was the first to bring Cisneros to Scotty’s attention — it’s just too bloody obvious — and “has been talked about” generally refers to talk by someone above my non-existent pay grade.) The problem was that Emilio Huerta, the candidate who lost to Valadao in 2016, was running again. As alluded to above, the problem (and that’s my word, not Scott’s) was less Emilio himself than the popularity of his mother, Cesar Chavez’s political partner Dolores Huerta, whom people simply did not want to cross before a 70% Latino electorate.
CA-21 is tailor-made for someone like Cisneros — and by Friday, they aren’t likely to find anyone else nearly as strong as Cisneros. From Wikipedia:
California’s 21st congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of California, which is centered in the San Joaquin Valley, and includes areas of Fresno County, Kern County, Kings County, and Tulare County. Cities in it include Coalinga, Delano, Hanford, and outer parts of Bakersfield.
The district is currently represented by Republican David Valadao.
Democrat Emilio Huerta, who lost to Valadao in 2016, has announced that he will run against Valadao again in the 2018 midterm elections.[3]As of 2017, the district leans 5 points more Democraticthan the nation as a whole, according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index.[2]
This Kern County district is over 70% Latino by population, 45% by electorate. It needs to be properly organized — and Cisneros can make that happen. He is, to his great credit, focused since winning the lottery on good works within the Latino community — and this district, unlike CA-39, desperately needs another strong Latino civic leader, as well as a Congressmember, like him.
Rather than splitting the vote in CA-39, Cisneros could be a freaking hero in CA-21. THIS WAS A DNC TARGETED DISTRICT! And no one else in CA-39 — not Thorburn, not Chen, not Janowitz, not even half-Latino Jammal — can make this happen. Cisneros — who’s already shown a willingness to pack up his carpetbag for a far lesser cause — can win this thing. I and others can bundle donations and otherwise work on his behalf.
This is a godsend for Democrats in both CA-21 and CA-39. If you agree, get to him BEFORE he files his paperwork any day now. Go to his site and contact him there, call him (TODAY!) at 657-234-0272 (listed on his site, not his personal line so far as I know), and ask him to be a hero!
‘Go North’ Gil Cisneros!!
Well, it didn’t work. Scott Lay reports today that so far as he can tell, Huerta apparently left the CA-21 race because he had so much less money to spend than Valadao. Someone named TJ Cox, who is part of the scrum running in CA-10 (eastern California), will now switch to run against Valadao. He has more money than Huerta, but a lot less than Valadao — and one hell of a lot less than Cisneros.
Lay reports that Cisneros says that he is staying in CA-39 — apparently seduced by the accomplishment of his endorsement by the Latino Caucus. about which voters do not care a bit, and will care even less if it turns out that Cisneros won that favor with contributions to members thereof — which is great news for Nelson, Huff, Young Kim, Schatzle, and other non-Democrats, two of whom remain likely to make the runoff.
Can’t say that we didn’t try!
Greg, I appreciated your urgent try (and timely update). I still don’t understand why the election for O.C. Superintendent of Schools is being overlooked by candidates. Its deadline for candidacy filings is this Friday.
Greg, my presumption is the more famous Latino candidates in other primary races (Governor and Senator) will turnout more Latino voters, especially Dems. Voter registration of Latinos has also been increasing. Despite Cisneros’ poor fluency in Spanish, his surname and campaign marketing should overwhelmingly win the Latino vote. Why do you downplay the Latino vote share in CA-39? Thanks.
I predict it to be relatively lower based on historic turnout. But you’re correct that, if DeLeon and/or Villaraigosa make the runoff, it could increase. I doubt that Hernandez will do much to goose it. Maybe Becerra might, but I doubt that too. LG and AG just aren’t the marquee races for most people.