There is an interesting opinion column in today’s L.A. Times regarding what happend to the GOP in the recent election. The thrust of the column is that the Republican Party’s goose is cooked:
First, Obama’s electoral coalition suggests deep fissures in the geographical base of the GOP. Since the 1960s, Republicans have been able to count on solid support from the South and the Rocky Mountain West, along with significant footholds in the Upper Midwest and New England. Obama’s victories in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida show that the solid South is now more liquid. In the West, the Obama victories in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, along with a robust showing in Montana, are bitter reversals for Republican fortunes. Add Obama’s ability to win handily in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the virtual disappearance of the GOP in New England (with the defeat of Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays, there is no longer a single Republican lawmaker from a region that was once a GOP bastion), and it is not clear there is any enduring regional base for the party anymore.
At the same time, Republicans have seen serious erosion in America’s suburbs. Suburban voters gave 61% of their votes to the GOP in 1984 and 57% in 1988, but that dropped to 52% by 2004. This time, they fell to 48%, while Obama captured a majority. For the GOP, its base has been reduced to small-town and rural voters, not exactly a growth strategy.
Even more disturbing for Republicans is the change reflected in demographics. Minority voters are growing steadily as a share of the population and of voters. In 2004, whites made up 79% of U.S. voters; they were down to 75% this year. Blacks, Latinos and Asians, meantime, went from 20% to 23%. Blacks voted 95% for Obama; Latinos gave him 66% support; and Asians, 61%. Whatever advances the Bush team made by wooing black churches and socially conservative Latinos during the last eight years seemed to evaporate. If the Republican Party cannot make significant, lasting inroads into these minority voting populations, it has a long-term disaster on its hands.
Most ominous for the GOP is what has been happening with younger voters. As a share of the electorate, 18- to 29-year-olds grew only slightly, from 17% to 18%. But they grew in terms of numbers of voters by more than 2.2 million (perhaps up to 4.5 million) and gave 66% of their votes to Obama. Partisan identity tends to crystallize in this age range. If Obama succeeds over the next four or eight years, these voters may carry their Democratic identity through their lifetimes. For Republicans, the danger is that their only reliable voting bloc may remain older white guys. Make that older Protestant white guys. Ouch.
The O.C. Register’s Steven Greenhut argues that “Republicans need to return to their small-government roots. This includes a rethinking of the party’s embrace of the National Security State and of the neoconservative international prerogatives that probably had something to do with Tuesday’s losses. As Antiwar.com’s Justin Raimondo put it: “Saddled with the neocons’ war and the central theme of the McCain campaign – ‘victory’ in Iraq and intervention around the world – Republicans all across the nation have been dragged down to defeat.” Will the party ever learn that spending hundreds of billions of dollars policing the globe also is a form of big government?”
I personally think that the GOP is done. They have become nothing more than the flip side of the Democrats. More often than not they stand for bigotry – and as we saw in the above-referenced L.A. Times column, they are losing minority and young voters. That is a recipe for extinction. Even here in Orange County we saw white voters become a minority this year. That trend will only deepen over time.
What new party will emerge from the ashes of the Republican Party? Probably at least two parties actually. As we saw with the passage of Prop. 8 here in California, there are plenty of social conservatives in the Democratic Party. A new political party that caters to a social conservative agenda will emerge – it is only a matter of time. The remaining Republicans my try to hang on to the elephant party, but if they fail then they will have to go back to the drawing board. Rich people will always need some sort of party to belong to, and not all of them are going to be happy in the Democratic Party.
As for me, I am joining the Libertarian Party. I disagree with the fiscally irresponsible Democrats and I would never rejoin the Republicans. I have enjoyed being a decline to state voter, but I agree with the Libertarian philosophy of being socially progressive while being fiscally conservative. I have a feeling that as we see our red and blue friends continue to screw up this country, more and more people are going to join the Libertarian Party.
When Dana Rohrabacher wins his election with just 52.5% of the vote and John Campbell wins his election with just 54.9% of the vote….in both districts which normally tally 64% to 74%….there are fundamental problems in the Republican Party in Orange County. Had Dana not voted against the FED Bail Out ….there
is little doubt that he would have lost this election. We predict that in two years there is every chance that these two seats may be lost to the Republican Party for the foreseeable future!
The reasons are fundamental, systemic and critical misreads of the electorate. These are not little “tweaks” that need to be made. The Republican Party has blocked Hispanics and Asians from becoming critical players in the process. They would argue rabidly that Van Tran or others are big time players. We think not!
Unless the Republican Party opens it’s doors wide to minority representation and stick to the three basic principles: 2nd Amendment Rights, 1st Amendment Rights and 5th Amendment Rights….our Republican days in the OC are numbered! Greed and SUV’s are out! Social Responsibility is in!
Art, Either news columnists all flunked their U.S. history classes, or they can’t break from their time-honored tradition of making unscholarly doomsday predictions. First, the name on pistol should have been “Bush” and smoke should be trailing out after a shot already fired. John McCain would likely be our president had the Bush adminsitration not been so spectacularly incompetent. Secondly, the GOP will in time be back in government. Without a strong opposition party, control of the party in power drifts to its most extreme elements, alienating much of the electorate, with the opposition able to fill the political vacuum by moving back toward the political center.
Art — wrong time to abandon the GOP. The Libertarian ideal of fiscal conservatism and social egalitarianism is the old GOP ideal. Remember, that it was the GOP that led this country out of institutional racism, while the Democrats remained the bastion of an embittered, defeated and still bigoted Confederacy. Republicans of the like of Paul O’Neil, Colin Powell, Howard Baker, including John McCain were forced from the center of Republican politics during the last half-dozen years. A new generation of fiscal conservative, social moderates need to be in the GOP for it serve as an effective counterweight to the Democratic control.
*Hey teach….just goes to show how institutional history is alot different than the real thing. The Vietnam war was protested mainly by cowardly liberal students that didn’t want to be cannon fodder. The Reagan Revolution…was in fact a true Revolution that saved our Country for eight years….before the Moderate wing of the Republican Party took over!
Right now the Moderate Wing is in charge again. Until Michael Reagan and others dedicated to returning to our Republican ideology….well, we will just be Democrats that are bigoted! Run by the way…by the same Old Generals that
have been running us since 1989!
The Republican Party right now is relying on Sarah Palin or some other charasmatic personality to lead us to the Promised Land. Newt Gingrich, Bob
Barr and Lindsay Graham are not what is going to sell $20,000 tables for the
RNC! Either is Sarah Palin …by the way! So teach…we are up for your basic
brillance: Name some wonderful and colorful Republican Leaders for us!
R&A –
I learned long ago never to underestimate Newt Gingrich.
SMS
Ms&Mr Winship — each from his/her own perspective. I was a Marine infantry officer in ’69-’72 and pretty doggone politically liberal, too — as were most of the other infantry lieutenants and captains I knew (Quote from an Irish-born Marine major, “Everrrry toime Oy drive pass the Western Whitehouse ( Nixon’s house near Camp Pendleton ) Oy flip me finger out the window in case he’s lookin’.) Leading a group of 19-20 year old kids into combat, and trying to get them all back home again to their parents with all their body parts attached is sort of a touchy-feely teary-eyed nurturing-caring thing more common among liberal democrats. I’m thinking that most conservative Republicans truly believe that self-interest is what drives a strong U.S., and they live that self-interest by watching out for their own asses during wartime. Dana Rohrbacher graduated from college the same year I did. He stayed home and liberal me went to Viet-Nam … along with Al Gore, and John Kerry. Bush, Jr, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Pearl, Rumsfeld … all darlings of the conservative right … could have served their country in combat, but avoided it, keeping with that ol’ neocon “take care of myself, first” philosophy. Those Republicans who did throw themselves into battle: Colin Powell, John McCain, and Bush, Sr. are all viewed with a bit of suspicion and disdain by true believers on the right.
Hey! You have some pictures of Limbaugh, Hannitty, and O’Reilly in uniform as young men, posing out in south-east asian mud with their rifle or mortor?
Ok Teach, I’ll bite.
Why would a “liberal” go into the branch that is the very pointy end of the spear? Most that I knew and I was just behind you in age, went into the Air Force or opted for some sort of specialty that was out of combat, like ski patrol, or at least that’s what they signed up for, even if it’s not what they got.
I don’t argue your point about a whole universe of spokesholes, both on the right and left, but not everyone is made for combat. As we both know, from experience and from listening to them, combat is a different world unto itself.
Personally, I think the all volunteer service policy, as we have now, is the correct way to populate the military machine. Having said that, I hope that both, my nephew who is enlisting now and the one who is a career sailor, come home in one piece, as I do for all our service personnel. I sincerely hope and pray that our new commander and chief will allow them to do their jobs, without tying their hands or making them unduly vulnerable.
Let me add that as we are about to remember all of our veteran’s, thank you for your service to our nation, for all of us who couldn’t or wouldn’t, for all of us who are live here and have benefited from your great sacrifice and for those who gave all for us. Our great thanks and respect for that sacrifice.
Ha, Ha, Tom — I swear, this is the way it was. I started UCSB in 1965 and joined Army ROTC to avoid the draft, just the year when the hippie movement started, and I just hated ROTC … a shiny face and a high ‘n tight when everyone else was getting hairy … and I couldn’t get out of it. Then I ran across some Marine officer-selection officers who could get me outta the Army program, and said I could grow my beard and hair long at school, just cut it off for training during summers. I loved the Corps, love it still, and loved my marines, the great majority in 69-70 being draftees and high-school dropouts. Not the smart and motivated enlistees of today’s Marines, we lived in small units 24/7 in the field, always wet, always dirty, everyone with multiple skin infections, continual drug problems with some of my marines (they’d buy stuff from Vietnamese kids, who were all over the place), but we ran our patrols every day and night (just 5 – 7 guys, waaaay understrength), and prevailed in every contact with enemy – didn’t lose anybody. Being liberal vs a conservative generally has meant the degree to which one believes is the proper division of wealth in the country: labor and the common man on the one side, business owners and management on the other. Unjust and destructive extremes exist on both sides. Being a liberal or conservative has nothing to do with loving your country and its citizens, or the courage to defend them.
In Basic Training our Black E-7 in Charge….said: “When someone throws
a grenade into your fox hole: “Close your eyes, put your hands over your’
ears and open your mouth – or you will be killed by just the shock!” I asked
Sarge….”Wouldn’t it be better just to throw the grenade out of your fox hole?”
His answer: “Well, if you have the time!” We are pretty sure that Sarge came from the South Side of Chicago! We are pretty sure that we trusted and loved him a lot during our training. We are pretty sure he voted Democrat in every election after that! Sarge was a conservative…no doubt! That was July of 1967…11B20 Infantry training. Got out in July 1969! Thank God…with all body parts still in tact! Thanks Sarge!
Good answer Teach, although that wasn’t Tom you were responding to but Carl.
Being liberal vs a conservative generally has meant the degree to which one believes is the proper division of wealth in the country: labor and the common man on the one side, business owners and management on the other… Being a liberal or conservative has nothing to do with loving your country and its citizens, or the courage to defend them.
But the reason “liberal” has become associated with “anti-war” is because most of our wars, especially since WWII have NOT been about defending “our country and its citizens,” but about advancing the interests of big business, NOT “labor and the common man,” which is why it has been more natural and intuitive for liberals to question and oppose these wars. So Carl’s impression is understandable even though it has nothing to do with liberals’ courage.
PS thanks for your service, Doc, and glad you and Ronnie W came back in one piece!
“The Vietnam war was protested mainly by cowardly liberal students that didn’t want to be cannon fodder.” Gee Winship’s, there couldn’t have been anything wrong with the war could there? I mean children might actually act out of principle, you remember principles don’t you?
I found it interesting with the 2008 Republican Bailout (as opposed to all the other big business bailouts over the years) that there are so many corporatists in both parties. Corporatist being those that think the government should control the people and give businesses whatever they need. I’m betting these are the folks that swing from one party to the other usually right before the ship sinks.
We’ve long known that big business gives money to both parties and thought they were just hedging their bets. Turns out they are part of a secret underground Corporatist Party that seeks to control the Republican and Democratic Parties, whoever is in power. Pretty smart if you ask me.
Vern, thanks for making the point about liberal’s opposition to some wars. I know many, many liberals who are not non-violent. There was no significant liberal opposition to our intervention in the war in Bosnia for example. Its the reason for the war that liberals oppose, not the soldiers, not the inevitable atrocities (although our response to those has been different), and not the spending (although we demand to know how its being paid for). Concervatives, well, you watched them for 8 years.
*OH boy…that good old …tried and true….Good War…Bad War gig!
Ya see….when Uncle Sam calls your number….you have virtually no idea which kind of war you will be called for – A good one in which you can die….or a bad one in which you can die. The thing you are fighting for is: “Mom, Dad and Apple Pie”…..or some sort of “Pie” that makes sense to you.
WW II…was supposedly a Good War that killed millions and millions and millions of innocent people. Put on for our pleasure by World Global Corporate
interests! Ford Motor Company sent whole Truck Factories to Germany in 1938.
We sent all our Gold Mining Equipment to Russia in 1948. Then we had Korea..
which was considered a “Police Action”…that killed millions of Koreans and thousands of our allies and ourselves! Again, for Global Oil Interest! Then we had that terrible Vietnam…that was to prevent the dominos from falling and create secure base of operations for western countries in the Far East. Of course our ally the UK was sending Colt firearms and ammunition to the North
Vietnamese all through the war. Sort of supporting both sides.
We will end it there. Let’s just say….that we went to war….as Draftees because
others had gone before to keep food on the tables of America. Get with the
program and understand two things: (1) War is Hell and (2) War is profitable for someone….every time!
rw