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If you haven’t seen Rocky 2, I’m spoiling the ending for you.
We have several close contests remaining in OC — here’s an update of where they stand as of 11/12’s report. (Plus some state results.)
First, the overall numbers!
November 3, 2020 General Election
UNOFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS
VOTER TURNOUT: 86.6% 86.8% 87.0% 87.2% 87.3%
Ballots Cast: 1,533,923 1,537,729 1,541,997 1,546,377
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53.49% |
|||||
676,478 |
44.46% |
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th District
(VOTE FOR 1)
| 200,428 | 51.02% | |||
| 192,416 | 48.98% |
As of 8/12:
Michelle Steel’s lead has gone from 7,000 to 8,000. This one is over, barring Congress tossing it out due to irregularities. (For the sake of the Vietnamese community, I hope that they will still investigate the illegal ballot harvesting.)
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | 133,059 |
50.5% |
|||
130,373 |
49.5% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *COTTIE PETRIE-NORRIS (DEM) | 132,776 | 50.51% | |||
| 130,072 | 49.49% |
Close enough that we’ll continue to watch it, but it’s not going to happen.
BREA OLINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5
(VOTE FOR 1)
On 11/7 it was:
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1,766 | 50.04% | |
| 1,763 | 49.96% |
On 11/12 it was (and 11/13) (and 11/14) (and 11/17):
1,801 |
50.03% |
||
1,799 |
49.97% |
UPDATE 11/23: As of today, it’s Lyons 1804 to Barnes 1803, after spending a few days tied.
(On 11/11, it was tied at 1,786. What do you think — should we continue to watch this one? OK, we will!) (One vote matters!) And please remember that Barnes signs were hidden behind Lyons signs, apparently by people favoring Ryan Bent’s campaign, whose signs occluded both.
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,754 | 51.10% | ||||
| 4,549 | 48.90% |
On 11/12:
| 4,924 | 51.21% | ||||
| 4,691 | 48.79% |
We’ll continue to follow this one, because it’s still within potential (though as yet unlikely) recount range — but Lauren’s not going to catch up to Larry in the raw count.
11/14 update: Larry now leads Lauren by a total of 38,077 to 37,846, a margin of 229 votes. The percentage lead is 13.01% to 12.93%, or 0.08%. The percentage says Yes Yes, but the margin says No No. I don’t know how flush Lauren is or how much money she could raise for a recount, but I tend to believe that margin. I’d love to be wrong on this.
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 42,813 | 14.90% | |
| 37,488 | 13.05% | |
| 37,386 | 13.01% | |
| 37,161 | 12.93% | |
| 31,543 | 10.98% | |
| 26,681 | 9.29% | |
| 15,347 | 5.34% | |
| 14,359 | 5.00% | |
| 10,006 | 3.48% | |
| 8,480 | 2.95% | |
| 8,045 | 2.80% | |
| 6,151 | 2.14% | |
| 6,122 | 2.13% | |
| 5,771 | 2.01% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43,417 | 14.84% | ||||
| 38,287 | 13.08% | ||||
| 37,902 | 12.95% | ||||
| 37,683 | 12.88% | ||||
| 32,212 | 11.01% | ||||
| 27,216 | 9.30% | ||||
| 15,730 | 5.37% | ||||
| 14,657 | 5.01% | ||||
| 10,200 | 3.49% | ||||
| 8,683 | 2.97% | ||||
| 8,215 | 2.81% | ||||
| 6,311 | 2.16% | ||||
| 6,280 | 2.15% | ||||
| 5,870 | 2.01% |
11/17 — Agran’s lead over Johnson-Norris remains steady, now at 227 votes (0.08%). That’s arguably close to recount range, but likely not worth the expense. I’ve checked the news and her website to see if LJN has conceded, but haven’t found any sign of it. The winner would serve out only Khan’s two-year unexpired term; that this seat will come up again in 2022, may counsel against a recount.
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,429 | 24.60% | ||||
| 5,657 5.660 |
21.65% 21.64% |
||||
| 5,512| 5.522 |
21.10% 21.12 |
||||
| 5,003 | 19.15% | ||||
| 3,528 | 13.50% |
We’ll continue to follow this one, because it’s still within potential (though as yet unlikely) recount range.
11/7
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
1,975 |
23.05% |
|
1,953 |
33.73% 22.79% |
|
| 1,650 | 19.56% | |
| 1,574 | 18.66% | |
| 958 | 11.45% | |
| 368 | 4.41% |
11/11
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1,949 1,953 | ||
| 1,663 | 19.56% | |
| 1,588 | 18.66% | |
| 971 | 11.45% | |
| 373 | 4.41% |
11/17: Cirbo continues to lead by 22 (o.26%); McDonald is a mathematician, so he can figure out his odds from there.
CITY OF LOS ALAMITOS Member, City Council, District 1
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 499 | 50.76% | |
| 484 | 49.24% |
On 11/12, 11/13, 11/14
514 |
50.84% |
||
497 |
50.16% |
At this rate, Grose will have caught up by December!
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15,580 | 20.54% | ||||
| 12,664 | 16.70% | ||||
| 11,970 | 15.78% | ||||
| 11,507 | 15.17% | ||||
| 8,909 | 11.75% | ||||
| 7,366 | 9.71% | ||||
| 3,803 | 5.01% | ||||
| 2,568 | 3.39% | ||||
| 1,474 | 1.94% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 18,784 | 31.77% | |
| 14,960 | 25.30% | |
| 13,817 | 23.37% | |
| 7,675 | 12.98% | |
| 3,894 | 6.59% |
11/12
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19,226 | 31.82% | ||||
| 15,343 | 25.40% | ||||
| 14,057 | 23.27% | ||||
| 7,856 | 13.00% | ||||
| 3,935 | 6.51% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 8,007 | 23.84% | |
| 6,884 | 20.50% | |
| 6,503 | 19.36% | |
| 6,340 | 18.88% | |
| 5,853 | 17.43% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,078 | 23.81% | ||||
| 6,967 | 20.53% | ||||
| 6,573 | 19.37% | ||||
| 6,398 | 18.85% | ||||
| MARKUS J. LENGER | 5,918 | 17.44% |
STATE RESULTS!
No change in results, so not updating.
| Proposition Title | Yes Votes |
% | No Votes |
% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WINNER
Yes |
#
14 |
Bonds to Continue Stem Cell Research | 8,025,624 | 51.0% | 7,700,870 | 49.0% |
| No | 15 | Property Tax to Fund Schools, Government Services | 7,689,551 | 48.1% | 8,305,396 | 51.9% |
| No | 16 | Affirmative Action in Government Decisions | 6,799,374 | 43.1% | 8,985,239 | 56.9% |
| Yes | 17 | Restores Right to Vote After Prison Term | 9,360,022 | 58.7% | 6,592,051 | 41.3% |
| No | 18 | 17-year-old Primary Voting Rights | 7,062,185 | 44.2% | 8,924,432 | 55.8% |
| Yes | 19 | Changes Certain Property Tax Rules | 7,988,336 | 51.1% | 7,652,789 | 48.9% |
| No | 20 | Parole Restrictions for Certain Offenses | 5,943,588 | 38.1% | 9,657,632 | 61.9% |
| No | 21 | Expands Governments’ Authority to Rent Control | 6,344,780 | 40.2% | 9,433,021 | 59.8% |
| Yes | 22 | App-Based Drivers and Employee Benefits | 9,303,329 | 58.6% | 6,583,279 | 41.4% |
| No | 23 | State Requirements for Kidney Dialysis Clinics | 5,732,743 | 36.4% | 10,025,844 | 63.6% |
| Yes | 24 | Amends Consumer Privacy Laws | 8,760,221 | 56.1% | 6,856,699 | 43.9% |
| No | 25 | Eliminates Money Bail System | 6,796,575 | 43.8% | 8,731,213 | 56.2% |
PRESIDENT:
(Candidate, Votes, Percent)
Remember that they keep saying that Biden won the popular vote by about 5,000,000 votes? Found almost all of them right here!
*Donald J. Trump, (Party Preference: REP), 5,536,973, 33.9%
Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente Guerra (Party Preference: AI), 54,001, 0.3%
Howie Hawkins, (Party Preference: GRN), 74,429, 0.5%
Jo Jorgensen, (Party Preference: LIB), 170,689. 1.0%
Gloria La Riva, (Party Preference: P&F), 45,713, 0.3%
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| * | TJ Cox (Party Preference: DEM) |
79,092 |
49.4%
|
| David G. Valadao (Party Preference: REP) |
81,157 |
50.6%
|
|
* Incumbent
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christy Smith (Party Preference: DEM) |
166,513 |
50.0%
|
|
| Mike Garcia (Party Preference: REP) |
166,617 |
50.0%
|
|
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kipp Mueller (Party Preference: DEM) |
187,655 |
49.2%
|
|
| * | Scott Wilk (Party Preference: REP) |
193,741 |
50.8%
|
* Incumbent
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Miller (Party Preference: DEM) |
63,771 |
49.9%
|
|
| Carlos Villapudua (Party Preference: DEM) |
63,975 |
50.1%
|
|
* Incumbent
Total Ballots Left to Count (as of 11/12)
(Updated Figures as of 11/17 in Green)
*IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Ballot estimates will expand as eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) are received via USPS and ballots deposited in official drop boxes (prior to 8PM on Election Night) are received and processed.
California law (AB 860) extended the deadline for eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) to be received through November 20, 2020. The changes also expanded the time for voters to cure ballot signature issues to November 24, 2020.
Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 253,460 256,060
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 252,342 254,518
Total Estimated Left to Count: 1,118 542
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count
Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 20,413
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,407 20,413
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 6 0
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 61,000
Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 60,993 61,000
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 7 0
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 97,403
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 97,398
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 5
Duplicated Ballot Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated [note: for example, due to damage] left to count: 3,826
Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 3,815 3,826
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 11 0
*Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,199 16,799
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,183 15,257
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 16 1542
[I’ll just note that 26,600 eligible vote by mail ballots arriving between 11 and 14 days after the election, if true, is a shocking indictment of our US Post Offices leadership. I wonder if some of the mail was just backed up while sitting in a pile that hadn’t been tabulated, rather that all arriving this late. Some actual reporting may be in order here!
Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 28,221
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 27,177 28,221
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 1,044 0
*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to count: 28,000
Total eligible final drop box pickups counted: 27,992 o
Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to count: 8 0
RAVBM Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to count: 398
Total eligible RAVBM ballots counted: 377 398
Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to count: 21 0
[Note: This is a new category this year; I’m guessing that it means “Registered Abroad,” i.e., mostly active military service members’ votes. Yes, I could ask, but where’s the fun in that?]
A final thought: if the number of Eligible Late-Arriving Mailed-In Ballots really dropped from 241 on Thursday 11/19 to 140 on Friday 11/20, that would suggest that they already went through the ballots and eliminated 101 of them for reasons that may be signature related (and thus still subject to cure), or may not be (instead involving postmarks, possibly voting in the wrong district, and such.) I presume, but do not know, that that lower number of ballots would not have received cure notices if they didn’t involve something curable, such as signature mismatches — and maybe nothing else.
*Yeah, watching Moorlach have to humble himself back into the Board of Supervior seat is a bit depressing for us. No doubt, that he is the best Republican in California. For those of us who are Conspiracy Theorists we know the Republicants wanted him out, because he was able to work across the aisle and get Legislation past that mattered. Anyway, too bad that this is the reality still – behind the Orange Curtain. Maybe they can get Mike Pence to come to Orange County and run for the IRWD…..next?
*Just a couple of observations: We are pulling for Christy Smith to get another couple of hundred votes to beat Garcia in the 25th. That would be sweet. Also, pretty funny the Mean Green Machine of Larry Agran is making his 10th Comeback. Larry is like the Energizer Bunny…..takes a licking and keeps on ticking….but then that was John Cameron Swayze that said that. Our old friend Bruce Whitiker came within a any eyelash of being ousted by some immigrant…..how would have that sounded in his hometown in Indiana?
We still feel badly for Harley……but hopefully he will find somewhere else to run….like against our pal Moorlach for the Supervisor Seat….wouldn’t that be a hoot? As Tracey
Lawerence said: “Time Marches On”.