1. Katie Unbars the Door
The smart money has been on Katie Porter running for Governor if Kamala Harris didn’t. Well, either Kamala isn’t running or Katie got tired of waiting; either way, she has just announced. I have excised all of the fundraising appeals and volunteer seeking from the email below because I’m treating this as news rather than a campaign letter; accordingly, I got rid of the “Paid for by” part, because she didn’t.
[Also: I don’t know what “LeftNet” is; I thought Katie was still the love object of PCCC (Progressive Change.)]
Announcement: I’m running for Governor
Katie Porter
From:team@leftnet.org
Tue, Mar 11 at 11:24 AM
Katie Porter here with exciting news: I’m launching my campaign to be California’s next governor.
I didn’t make this decision lightly. But with an emboldened Trump in the White House and MAGA loyalists doing his bidding day in and day out, California — and our country — need a leader who is ready to go toe to toe with extremists.
I first ran for office in 2018. I was a single mom of three little kids, running in a district that Republicans had held for decades. But I ran because I couldn’t sit on the sidelines as I watched Trump try and destroy our country. As a consumer protection attorney, I wanted to use my experience to hold him and his administration accountable.
With the support of folks like you, I made it to Congress, where I was able to claw back billions from drug companies who ripped us off and pass laws cracking down on health care companies that wrongfully denied care.
I feel the same call to serve today that I did in 2018.
California is experiencing real challenges. We must become resilient to natural disasters and tackle climate change. We must address the high cost of housing, health care, and groceries. And we must continue to protect our LGBTQ+ community members and safeguard abortion access.
We don’t have to choose between defending our values and tackling our challenges. We can work with businesses to create good paying jobs in California and hold corporations accountable. We can keep communities safe and uphold civil rights.
I’m never one for BS or sugar coating, so I’ll be honest — this race won’t be a walk in the park! There are already multiple candidates in the race to succeed Governor Newsom, who is term-limited, and the primary election is just over a year away.
I’m asking you to join our movement to stand up to Trump and his cronies.
2. The Ripples Created in the Race
Katie Porter’s announcement is bad news for her Democratic rivals in this already overstuffed race: Toni Atkins, Eleni Kounalakis, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa, Betty Yee, and Stephen Kloobeck (founder of “Diamond Resorts”). That’s not because Katie is a cinch to win — although I think she joins the top tier — but because it muddies the race substantially without necessarily chasing other candidates out, the way that Kamala’s candidacy would have. It’s bad news for them because is carves the slices of pie even more narrowly, a cardinal sin in a Top Two primary system!
It’s potentially great news for Republicans — who with a deeply split Democratic vote have a chance of shutting Democrats out of the Top Two runoff. Unfortunately, the only top-tier (though maybe second tier if others enter the race) is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. (None of the other declared candidates even has a Wikipedia entry.) Brian Dahle, who finished second in 2022, isn’t in this race yet — but he would plausibly be even higher tier than Bianco; given their bases don’t overlap much, they truly could take the top two slots against this Democratic field, if it stays as it is. (If Dahle doesn’t jump in, then Lahnee Chen — even more respectable among Democrats — would be next most likely.)
But do you know who this is definitely great news for? Yes, you guessed it: Green Party candidate Dr. Rudolph Bilal “Butch” Ware, a historian at UC Santa Barbara, who among other things is steadfast in his support for Hamas and opposition to giving military aid to Israel! (And, more broadly, to Zionism in general.) Being anti-aid-to-Israel-to-use-to-bomb-Gaza gives him a pretty honking huge constituency if he can get the message out and the Democrats don’t coalesce. He’ll be uncontested on the far left — and if there’s only one high-tier Republican running they could afford to steer a lot of money into promoting Ware with the intention of dividing and embarrassing the left. (Plus — they could win this race!)
This is literally the first time in my life I have ever seen a viable path to a major office by a Green candidate. I’m still pissed off at Jill Stein for not picking her states in a way that she wouldn’t end up electing Trump, but: if she wanted to burn down the status quo and start the country over, she certainly did what she could to make it happen.
I think that the AIPAC types would literally vote for any Republican, even a swastika-waving Klansman, over Ware. (Note: that preceding phrase was not a reference to Sheriff Bianco.) And if this put AIPAC crosswise of all of the other Democratic constituencies in the country (because California is influential!), I would not be entirely sorry; liberal and even moderate Jews have to learn not to give in fully to Israeli policies. I think that AIPAC would easily go for Dahle; enthusiastically go for Lahnee, and — well, I’m not sure that they would go for Chad Bianco. And that’s why I think that they’d get strongly behind someone like Lahnee in the primary.
3. How Will Democratic Candidates Respond?
You might think that the plausible prospect, even a small one, of a Chad Bianco vs. Butch Ware runoff for Governor would be such a disaster — ripping Democratic Party solidarity to ribbons with an impact that would last for years if Democrats refused to join me and presumably Vern in supporting Ware over Bianco — would create enormous pressure for the party not to allow this to happen. Hahahahahaha — good luck with that!
Let’s go back to that list of Democratic names. Toni Atkins, Eleni Kounalakis, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Betty Yee. Kounalakis, who is 59, has already put in eight years as Lieutenant Governor, waiting for a hoped-for promotion. Running for a different office is possible, but it would be a letdown. Yee spent eight years as State Controller, and at age 67 she’s already getting long in the tooth to wait another 4-8 years to try for the top spot. (She could run for Lieutenant Governor herself next year, possibly pushing Fiona Ma out of the race, which would be a blessing for the state — but that’s not Governor.) Villaraigosa, who at 72 is even longer-toothed, was Mayor of Los Angeles for 8 years and spent 6 years in the State Assembly, two as Majority Leader and two as Speaker. A lesser state office seems unlikely to suit him. Tony Thurmond, who is 54, is finishing eight years as State School Superintendent, and while he’s gotten the jump on others in terms of campaigning that’s not a natural direct step to the Governor’s Mansion. (In fact, I think it would be unprecedented.) Finally, Toni Atkins, who broke new ground for lesbians in both the Assembly (where she was Speaker for one term) and the State Senate (where she served as President Pro Tempore); she was only the third person to have served in both capacities — and the two earlier ones did so in the 19th century.) She could also seek a lower office, though she might consider it beneath her dignity; she is another one who (at age 62) could challenge Fiona Ma the Lt. Governor position and run again in 8 years.
Will any of them give way to Porter? My guess is the Villaraigosa, the oldest, will not. And I expect that Kounalakis, who has reason to think that she has groomed herself to ascend to the position, won’t either. Thurmond has a lot of time left to run for office and should probably seek a different office, but he seems stubbornly attached to this race. Atkins is already listed in Wikipedia as a potential Lt. Gov. candidate — Ma herself originally ran for Governor before switching — and she’d probably be wise to switch as well. (If she does, she could contact us. We’ve got archives….) As for poor Betty Yee, who has kept on getting edged out of things, I think that she might get left standing up in this game of musical chairs. She should certainly get into the race against Ma if Atkins doesn’t.
Even if three of the above drop out, the two left plus Katie does leave the door open to a Bianco-Ware runoff. (And, seriously, Ware is going to get a lot of votes in the primary, especially with a raucous fistfight going on among Democrats.) It’s in each of these Democratic candidates’ interest to have only two Democrats running in this race; but it’s also in each one’s interest to be one of those two. I have a sense that the slow motion car crash we see forming will prove hard to resolve, and it will go on the way to a bitter end. Happily, OJB is sure to have someone to root for!
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