[poll id=”165″]
Politics is all about hope – and fear. But all too often the truth lies in math. Take for example the current DPOC darling, Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom. Some folks think she actually has a chance of defeating well-heeled former car dealer Rep. John Campbell. But the numbers don’t bear this out.
Last year, perennial Democratic candidate Steve Young tried mightily to take out Campbell. In the end, Young got just over 40% of the vote – with Barack Obama atop the Democratic ticket, according to Smart Voter. Campbell came in at over 55% of the vote. Campbell got 171,431 votes to Young’s 125,351 votes. That is to say that Young lost by over 45,000 votes!
Sure, Krom has had some success at the local level. But this is the big leagues now. And the registration numbers don’t favor Krom – not by a long shot. There are 195,299 Republicans in the 48th Congressional District. There are only 128,341 Democrats in that district. Young got almost all their votes and still lost.
There are also over 95,000 Decline to State voters in the 48th. They are, as such, an important swing vote. And I have a feeling many of them are pissed about our rising taxes and increasing national socialism. Krom is going to get very few votes from this bunch.
So can Krom get Republicans or independents to vote for her? Despite the stink rising out of the bogus Irvine Great Park? Despite Obama’s continued destruction of our national economy? I don’t know about that.
I am no fan of Campbell. But I just don’t see how Krom will prevail. She will win the Democratic nomination – and then she will lose big to Campbell.
The sad thing is that the silly DPOC could easily take the 68th Assembly District, with a lot less effort. But instead they will blow their wad on Krom and end up crying in their beer. Would you expect any less from a dysfunctional party that can’t get anyone elected? A party that failed to pick up City Council seats in blue collar Garden Grove and La Habra last year?
I feel bad for all the folks that are ponying up big contributions for Krom. Save your money folks. She has already lost. It is just a matter of time…
UPDATE: Campbell has signed on as a sponsor to the “Birther” bill, which would mandate that presidential candidates show proof of citizenship. Obviously Campbell is one of those dumb Republicans who thinks that President Obama was born in Africa. Obama won the 48th last year. Perhaps Campbell should back off Obama and concentrate on taking out Krom?
I notice that Tyler did a topic on this:
http://www.redcounty.com/does-beth-krom-have-a-chance?taxonomy=29
He came to the same basic conclusions, however he used the the Cook Partisan Voting Index as part of his analysis.
Based on his conclusions and data, not a very good chance for Beth Krom to be successful. And of course, in my limited experience, with hanger-on-ers who are arrogant,rude and discourteous shows a lack of campaign leadership and direction.
So far, NO go on that bet Art. 😉
With Melahat running Krom’s campaign, she’ll lose for sure. Melahat is a terrible fundraiser and too many people don’t like her.
Thanks a lot Phil Bacerra. Another woman you repeatedly attack and spread vicious rumors about.
Campbell’s refusal to bring stimulus funds to his district at time when local residents and businesses are suffering through the deep recession will come back to haunt him. Krom is much more well known that Steve Young and capable of raising more money and earlier than Young to establish herself as a viable winner in the District. Of course, it is true Krom will also have to appeal to the Independents and movable Republicans and this is where her pro-business and strong public safety record in Irvine will serve her well. As Mayor of Irvine Krom was fiscally conservative and business friendly and under her leadership Irvine was regularly recognized by the FBI as the safest city in America. I suspect the current polling on Independents and Republicans is that many of these voters will break and vote Dem if Krom can talk to their core economic concerns and successfully associate herself with the more popular policies of the Obama Administration.
Of course, the power of entrenched incumbency is strong with more than 90% of sitting congress members winning elections to retain their seats. Even with a candidate as strong as Krom, she still will need to drive up Campbell’s negatives and peel away part of his base and she cannot wait until after the primary to go after it. Irvine’s strong democratic base and changes in the voting trends in Orange County and in this District work to Krom’s advantage, but she will need to establish herself very early in this race and raise enough money to fight for every possible vote. The Democratic base alone will not get her there Campbell will not be able to phone this one in and if Krom does it right then Campbell may be forced to respond, defend and explain himself and maybe even visit the district and fight for his base.
#3,
True – Campbell is going to have to work hard this time. The fact that he has hired Red Klownty’s Jerbal bodes ill. Campbell needs to be more moderate – not more Talibani.
Krom’s handlers seem inept so far. I see no reason to believe that she will prevail with that bunch at the helm.
I hope Don Patterson runs again. As a Libertarian he is far better than his red and blue opponents.
Let him run right to fit in, them Krom will have a chance to win.
Beats me.
At best Campbell is a second rate Congressman. More suited for the politics of Tustin and Sacramento than Washington DC.
Having said that, Krom is much the same, she stands little or no chance.
Get Kobe Bryant or one of the other Millionare sports stars who live in the district to go and this kid’s toast.
It is not unfair to say John Campbell was an opportunist in taking the seat vacated by now disgraced SEC chairman Cox. Simply put, these guys are a joke, as evidenced by their advisors, at the end of the day it does’nt matter because they know that, don’t care and win.
Allthewhile not doing a thing for thier constituents.
Folks. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter if you win by one vote or 10,000 votes. Simply look at the voter registration in the district. With the Obama Administration spending binge frustrated Republicans will stand behind Campbell over any Democrat next year.
Gerrymandering enables both major parties to set their own destiny. The only real competition is in the party primaries where incumbents may be challenged.
I find it amusing how a no one really realizes the things John Campbell has done let alone know who he is.
John Campbell has…
-Missed over 300 votes. One of which was on jobs and you know where he was? A Florida car show.
-Voted against the healthcare of veterans and 9/11 families.
-And many more things that you will be shocked to hear.
Even if you were a Republican, why would you vote for a guy like this? He has neglected his duties to the point that even a Republican that lives here didn’t even know who John Campbell was.
Would you rather have a guy like him ,who will only fail you, in office again or would you rather vote for Beth Krom, who is pushing for healthcare and education and would at least DO her job unlike John Campbell?
John Campbell does not deserve to get re-elected. No stimulus $ to help our district? No show for votes? Doesn’t sound like he got much done.
Blue dog,
I agree! Vote Libertarian!
Beth Krom shows she can mix all the people and Biz with a good result for all.
Campbell has romanced the big boys but didn’t even show up for debate.
People don’t count.
These days it’s about more than what the elite choose to let trickle down.
I hope enough of the people will dig out of that pile and see it.
The RE bust began in 2006 and bad loans to get $100k people to afford $500k homes would have been bad no matter what
Sure the war toppled it all faster and made it a world wide mess..
But The big BIz boom and busts
and JOB outsourcing
and the other war CEO vs middle class must end.
Campbell still shows no signs of working for US.