I’ve been planning to write about the upcoming race for Lou Correa’s seat on the Board of Supervisors (BOS), but Jubal, over at OC Blog, beat me to the punch – inadvertently offering me the opportunity to write my post by responding to his.
Carlos Bustamante, the Santa Ana Council Member, confirmed to Jubal that he will likely run for Correa’s seat – and most likely many Republicans will fall in line behind him. However, he works for the disastrous Orange County Planning Department, and he hasn’t exactly impressed anyone while on the Santa Ana City Council, with the notable exception of Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido – a Democrat who has apparently given Bustamante his blessing. Will he continue to do so if State Senator Joe Dunn decides to continue his political career by running for the BOS? My guess is that Pulido would either side with Dunn or endorse both candidates.
The other possible Republican candidates include Kermit Marsh, the Westminster Council Member who is currently in hot water for his role in the firing of Kimoanh Nguyen-Lam over at the Westminster School District; and Janet Nguyen, the Garden Grove Council Member. Neither has much of a chance in my estimate. Marsh will have trouble raising money and Nguyen’s political career appears to be rooted in abstaining.
Don’t count out Nguyen’s old boss, Ken Maddox. The O.C. public employee’s union is looking for a champion, and Maddox is known to be a pro-union squish. He lives in south O.C. currently, but could move back to Garden Grove if enticed by Nick Berardino, the boss of the OC unionistas. Maddox could count on support from his old OC GOP machine amigos, Curt Pringle and Jim Silva.
Martin Wisckol, over at Total Buzz, feels that a list of possible Democrat candidates for Correa’s seat on the BOS should include hot-tempered Santa Ana Council member Claudia Alvarez; local Dem base favorite Armando de la Libertad; and OC County Clerk/Recorder Tom Daly. My sources tell me the latter won’t run as he does not live in the district. Alvarez seems to be finished politically after her drubbing by her Santa Ana Council peer Jose Solorio in the recent primary election, and de la Libertad likewise is probably going to lie low for awhile after also losing badly to Solorio.
I agree with Jubal’s contention that Pulido won’t run for the BOS. I don’t see Van Tran running either; he has his hands full with his wife’s legal problems and with the Nguyen-Lam situation in Westminster. If Dunn does not run, you have to believe that Rosen will be the top Democrat candidate for Correa’s seat.
Any other possible candidates? How about Nguyen-Lam? She is an elected official in her own right, as a member of the Garden Grove School Board. You could not ask for a candidate with a higher name ID at the moment – and she can run with education as her main issue. Voters might be sympathetic to her after her travail in Westminster. And she is a Democrat – which would give her an instant advantage in a district that leans blue, not red.
On the GOP side, Santa Ana School Board member Rosie Avila is also still hanging around – and my sources tell me that she did not spend much of the money she raised in her campaign for the 47th Congressionial District. She underestimated Tan Nguyen, and elected to hang on to her money for the general. Avila has a high profile in the area, and just about all of the OC Supervisors endorsed her against Nguyen. Like Marsh however, Avila might have problems raising enough money to run for the BOS.
Lastly, I must disagree with Jubal’s feeling that Lynn Daucher has somehow been underestimated as a candidate for the 34th Senate District. Trust me on this one – Lou Correa is probably going to beat her by double digits. Does anyone really think that the pro-life conservatives who gave her Republican opponent, Lupe Moreno, almost a quarter of the vote, are going to vote for a candidate that is known to be favored by Planned Parenthood? I think not. I predict that many such voters will stay home or will simply choose to not vote for either of the candidates for the 34th. Correa is headed back to Sacramento – guaranteed – and as such we can all continue to enjoy guessing about the candidates who will be vying for his seat on the BOS.
Word on the street is Umberg and Rosen are already making calls for support. Broadwater is also looking for support. And Nguyen-Lam would be an interesting choice as the 1st district as it contains the city of Westminster. However, Nguyen-Lam really does want to work on education issues and feels her best service right now is GGUSD.
10:32,
Broadwater had his shot – he, like Umberg, is done. So is Mark Leyes – but he has the sense to stay out of this one. Plus he landed a cushy job with the Schwarzenegger campaign as their lead guy in San Bernardino County.
I think Nguyen-Lam might reconsider if she gets enough calls of encouragement. Right now she would be tough to beat. I’m sure Berardino is looking for her number even now…unless he is already on the phone with Maddox.
Lastly, I must disagree with Jubal’s feeling that Lynn Daucher has somehow been underestimated as a candidate for the 34th Senate District.
Art:
You need to re-read my post. I said no such thing.
Art:
Did you really include Armando de la Libertad (aka Ramirez) as a potential candiate?
Please. Armando didn’t register with voters in the 69th. He was able to garner an measly 16% after spending $160K.
I think it is fair the say that the only who thinks Armando has a career in elected office is you.
Anon,
Obviously, that is not the case, as Jubal seems to be another person feeling Armando has a bright future ahead. Armando, I believe, will most likely stay out of politics for a couple of years and then possibly see something in the future.
If Bustamante runs for BOS, then perhaps Armando can give him a run for his money on Ward 3.
I’m still laughing about Armando running.
Despite some recent abstentions, I would not underestimate Janet Nguyen as a serious contender for this seat.
I don’t see Van Tran being interested in this seat at ALL. He pretty obviously prefers Sacramento to OC. Why would he want a job that keeps him here full time?
I don’t mean this as a slam against Tran whatsoever. But he appears to live primarily in Sacramento, where I understand his wife is well established and where they have their primary residence. It doesn’t make sense that he’d run for an office that would keep him here.
I saw Maddox at Antonello’s with some of his county buddies.
It is awful that some of our “representatives” do not live in the districts that they were elected to represent! What a slap in the face of their constituents!
Is Sacramento really that much better than Garden Grove or Costa Mesa?
At least Paul Lucas lives in the 68th Assembly District.
To hell with incumbents “seat shopping” for their next term. I say we should require everyone to complete the terms of office they got elected to, or require them to resign in order to run for something else.
This would solve a whole lot of problems AND keep incompetent politicians where they belong until their current term expires so they have to face the very voters who put them into office.
Anybody else sick of the “Incumbency Protection Club” ???
Semper Fi,
Tim Whitacre
Anybody else sick of the “Incumbency Protection Club” ???
Term limits suck eh?
They just bounce from one position to another, doing nothing to make life better for US along the way.
And why should us Rep’s even think of supporting Carlos B when he won’t even support Ryan Gene in his bid for the 69th?
Maybe if Jose win’s he will take him along to Sac as an errand boy.
Tim,
I agree, “moving the mandarins” certainly does not benefit the constituants at all. Trying to “bequeath” the seat to a spouse or family member to enrich the family “business” is just as appalling.
Here is what I would like to see:
First – Fair/responsible redistricting (not last November’s smoke and mirrors) reflecting communities of interest. Given the new lovefest in Sacramento, perhaps something equitable could be worked out.
Second – do away with term limits. We have the opportunity to vote them out every two, four or six years. We might see some professionalism and civility return to partisan politics. That might be refreshing.
Third – (I expect alot of crap for this one) Public Financing of Elections. (There, I said it)
People who are true public servants would feel empowered to run – elections would no longer be the exclusive realm for the self-financed millionaire and no one would have to sell their soul to any well funded “special” interest(s).
The only other solution would be no limits with IMMEDIATE disclosure. Perhaps that would disgust the public enough to demand Public Financing of Campaigns.
At any rate, it is at least time to have the discussion.
I agree with Tim. It’s time we made elected officials complete the terms they ran for. Maybe if there was a huge financial penalty for giving up a seat to run for something else, it would deter career politicians.
I think Tim is on to something here.
Jubal,
Sorry – I may have misinterpreted what you wrote. For the benefit of my readers, here’s what Jubal had to say about Correa and Daucher:
It’s interesting how nearly everyone I speak with, regardless of partisan affiliation, takes it virtually for granted Lou Correa will beat Lynn Daucher in November. But as a Santa Ana insider reminded me last week, Daucher was recruited into the race when a fatally wounded Tom Umberg was going to be the Democratic nominee. Serious doubt about Umberg’s ability to beat Daucher in November consequently spurred Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata to convince Correa to run — and to lavishly fund pro-Correa and anti-Umberg IEs. Now that Umberg is out of the 34th Senate District picture, the original November calculus is problematic.
maybe the taxpayers can benefit from having the open supervisor seat and the santa ana city council seat that solorio will give up on the same special election ballot.
FYI: Solorio’s seat is not open when he vacates to go to Sacramento. The Mayor has 30 days to appoint someone. If no one is appointed within 30 days then a special election is held to fill the seat. I seriously doubt the Mayor will let the latter happen.
Has anyone considered “Joe Dunn for Supervisor”? How about Anaheim’s Richard Chavez? Chavez’ parents live in Santa Ana. Although Daly doesn’t live in the District, he certainly could move like all the other carpet baggers.
“The Mayor has 30 days to appoint someone.” Pulido is certain to push his buddy Vince Sarmiento into Solorio’s seat. Sarmiento’s family owns the notorious Festival Hall, the most crime-infested venue in the county. But hey, he’s a bud!
If Pulido was smart, he’d appoint Tim Whitacre to the seat (if he’d take it). Tim’s no-nonsense approach to government is healthy and he knows how to make things happen – like get rid of Graffiti.
Our city could use a lot of common sense in the council these days
Pulido’s choice must have lived in the Ward for one year prior to being appointed. I don’t think Sarmiento meets that qualification. As far as Tim goes, there ain’t no way he’s going to be the annointed one.
Tim for city council! Tim for city council!
Will Vince be living in Ward 1 for a year by December 31st, 2006?
Remember, Solorio has until the moment he is sworn into the Assembly to resign. Which means he can make it effective at 12:01 AM December 1st. The clock does not begin until December 2nd since Solorio is technically the Councilman. If the 30 days end during the holiday period, Council gets until the next City Council meeting. Plenty of time for Vince to be living there one year.
Don’t overanalyze the residency issue, after all, Pulido lived in a condo in LA when he first ran for council! Sarmiento owns and has been renovating a house on East Fourth for over a year. He’s a lock for the spot.
Anon 9:14 said, “FYI: Solorio’s seat is not open when he vacates to go to Sacramento. The Mayor has 30 days to appoint someone.”
The Mayor does not decide, it’s a majority vote of the council(The NEW council which will be 6 members since Jose’s seat will be vacent when they vote.) of which he is one vote out of 7.
Ryan Gene for City Council!
“The Mayor does not decide, it’s a majority vote of the council(The NEW council which will be 6 members since Jose’s seat will be vacent when they vote.)
BIG DEAL! With Bist gone the only one with the huevos to challenge Pulido is Alvarez (assuming she doesn’t just pack it in). That’s 5-1 or 5-0 either way.
Santa Ana City Council in Jan, 07
Pulido
Alvarez???
Bustamante
Garcia
David Benavides
Fortino Rivera
Vince Sarmiento
Then if Bustamante gets the Supervisor seat they appoint who???
Sandy Nalle!!!
Keep telling yourself the Mayor doesn’t decide. He is afterall a very influential mayor and will soon, if he doesn’t already, have a council majority.
I think Ryan would make a pretty good City Councilman.
Mike Garcia likes him.
Jose likes him.
I’m not sure what Pulido thinks.
Then of course there’s Claudia and Carlos, but who knows where they stand.
How about Armando de la Libertad to be appointed to Bustamante’s seat if he wins the Supervisor’s seat.
Then again did anyone see Joe Dunn’s vote against the Assisted Suicide Bill. He his behaving like the moderate Democrat from the first two years in office. I think it is a definite sign of a run for Supervisor. He now has to appeal to more conservative voters.
Ryan Gene has done absolutely nothing for Santa Ana. He just got here. He doesn’t even know who’s on the EMT or how to contact them. Does he even live in the Ward?
We need someone in Solorio’s seat that’s not afraid to lead and has a proven track record in Santa Ana; someone who is civic minded, ethical and approachable; someone who will place principals over politics.
The one person who comes to mind and who does live in Solorio’s Ward (and has for 15 years or more) is Tim Whitacre. Tim, or someone like him would be a huge shot in the arm for our city. Let’s not leave this one to chance. We need to start making calls to Pulido, Bustamante, Alvarez and Garcia to express our desire regarding this appointment.
“Ryan Gene has done absolutely nothing for Santa Ana. He just got here.”
He just got here! Who cares?
Half the city’s population isn’t even from Santa Ana.
The fact that he’s ready and willing to get something done is more than fine with me and countless others.
I think it would be great for someone like Ryan to be on the City Council. Especially since Santa Ana is the youngest city in the nation. Besides, I would rather have a fresh perspective on the City Council than someone who has nothing better to do than memorize city staff names and phone numbers. Didn’t the L.A. Times do a story on a guy like that? His neighbors did not seem to fond of him.
Ryan Gene for City Council!
Ryan,
You are too obvious in your self-promotion through the anonymous blogging in your quest to get somewhere without actually working for it.
Sorry, dude, but your arguments only serve to make you look worse as an “Assembly candidate.” You have no track record in this area and therefore, despite that fact that you are a nice young man, you are an unknown liability that many Republicans – like myself, will not vote for until you show me some civic involvement at a lower level.
What, if any, boards and commissions are you currently on in Santa Ana or the 69th? What, if anything, have you done locally that can be verified, that has helpled improve the quality of life for the residents you seek to represent?
Seriously, you should wait until you lose the November General Election before you start advertising yourself for another seat (or protest loudly against anyone else that might be actually doing it for you). You look real bad right now.
Good Advice:
First off, if I ever post on a blog, which is rare mind you, I always post using my name.
Second, I DID NOT post at 10:04. Truth be known, I was running errands all morning (going to the bank, post office, lunch with friends, etc.).
Third, as far as looking bad, well I was the only one who stepped up in Central County to run for the 69th. After working for the party, I tried to find some good people to run for it… sadly no one wanted to for whatever reason. Better to have a decent Republican on the ballot than no Republican at all. Quite frankly, I believe that I
Ryan Gene said, “Quite frankly, I believe that I
i mean “stark” contrast
How soon they forget Reuben Ross.
Ross was 4 years ago.
“We need someone in Solorio’s seat that’s not afraid to lead and has a proven track record in Santa Ana; someone who is civic minded, ethical and approachable; someone who will place principals over politics.”
That would exclude Solorio.