O.C. Supervisorial seat up for grabs

I’ve been planning to write about the upcoming race for Lou Correa’s seat on the Board of Supervisors (BOS), but Jubal, over at OC Blog, beat me to the punch – inadvertently offering me the opportunity to write my post by responding to his.

Carlos Bustamante, the Santa Ana Council Member, confirmed to Jubal that he will likely run for Correa’s seat – and most likely many Republicans will fall in line behind him. However, he works for the disastrous Orange County Planning Department, and he hasn’t exactly impressed anyone while on the Santa Ana City Council, with the notable exception of Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido – a Democrat who has apparently given Bustamante his blessing. Will he continue to do so if State Senator Joe Dunn decides to continue his political career by running for the BOS? My guess is that Pulido would either side with Dunn or endorse both candidates.

The other possible Republican candidates include Kermit Marsh, the Westminster Council Member who is currently in hot water for his role in the firing of Kimoanh Nguyen-Lam over at the Westminster School District; and Janet Nguyen, the Garden Grove Council Member. Neither has much of a chance in my estimate. Marsh will have trouble raising money and Nguyen’s political career appears to be rooted in abstaining.

Don’t count out Nguyen’s old boss, Ken Maddox. The O.C. public employee’s union is looking for a champion, and Maddox is known to be a pro-union squish. He lives in south O.C. currently, but could move back to Garden Grove if enticed by Nick Berardino, the boss of the OC unionistas. Maddox could count on support from his old OC GOP machine amigos, Curt Pringle and Jim Silva.

Martin Wisckol, over at Total Buzz, feels that a list of possible Democrat candidates for Correa’s seat on the BOS should include hot-tempered Santa Ana Council member Claudia Alvarez; local Dem base favorite Armando de la Libertad; and OC County Clerk/Recorder Tom Daly. My sources tell me the latter won’t run as he does not live in the district. Alvarez seems to be finished politically after her drubbing by her Santa Ana Council peer Jose Solorio in the recent primary election, and de la Libertad likewise is probably going to lie low for awhile after also losing badly to Solorio.

I agree with Jubal’s contention that Pulido won’t run for the BOS. I don’t see Van Tran running either; he has his hands full with his wife’s legal problems and with the Nguyen-Lam situation in Westminster. If Dunn does not run, you have to believe that Rosen will be the top Democrat candidate for Correa’s seat.

Any other possible candidates? How about Nguyen-Lam? She is an elected official in her own right, as a member of the Garden Grove School Board. You could not ask for a candidate with a higher name ID at the moment – and she can run with education as her main issue. Voters might be sympathetic to her after her travail in Westminster. And she is a Democrat – which would give her an instant advantage in a district that leans blue, not red.

On the GOP side, Santa Ana School Board member Rosie Avila is also still hanging around – and my sources tell me that she did not spend much of the money she raised in her campaign for the 47th Congressionial District. She underestimated Tan Nguyen, and elected to hang on to her money for the general. Avila has a high profile in the area, and just about all of the OC Supervisors endorsed her against Nguyen. Like Marsh however, Avila might have problems raising enough money to run for the BOS.

Lastly, I must disagree with Jubal’s feeling that Lynn Daucher has somehow been underestimated as a candidate for the 34th Senate District. Trust me on this one – Lou Correa is probably going to beat her by double digits. Does anyone really think that the pro-life conservatives who gave her Republican opponent, Lupe Moreno, almost a quarter of the vote, are going to vote for a candidate that is known to be favored by Planned Parenthood? I think not. I predict that many such voters will stay home or will simply choose to not vote for either of the candidates for the 34th. Correa is headed back to Sacramento – guaranteed – and as such we can all continue to enjoy guessing about the candidates who will be vying for his seat on the BOS.

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"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.